Is It Officially Time for the 49ers to Give Up on Colin Kaepernick?

Less than 24 months ago, Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers were just a play away from winning the Super Bowl. Less than 12 months ago, Kaepernick and the 49ers were just a play away from going to their second Super Bowl in a row.

After unprecedented team success and impressive play from the inexperienced quarterback, the 49ers decided to sign Kaepernick to a long-term contract potentially worth $126 million.

Even though Kaepernick's contract had get-out clauses for the team if it decided to move on from him after any given season, it was unfathomable to think that get-out clause would be used after just one season. However, now it appears to be a real possibility, looking more and more probable every week.

With the 49ers out of playoff contention and coach Jim Harbaugh set to depart for pastures new (also growing more and more probable), the franchise will be dropped into unfamiliar levels of uncertainty this offseason. Because Kaepernick hasn't played well this season, that uncertainty could affect him in spite of his status as the team's franchise quarterback.

The new head coach in San Francisco next season will need to ask himself a simple question: What changed?

Kaepernick's raw numbers aren't significantly different this year opposed to last. In fact, it could be argued that this year's numbers are more impressive. Kaepernick is attempting more passes, completing passes at a higher rate and is on track to throw for more yards in 16 games.

He would need five touchdowns over his final two games to match his passing touchdowns from last season, while he already has more interceptions this year than for all of last season.

Maybe most significantly, Kaepernick has taken an incredible 49 sacks while not rushing for a single touchdown. In 2013, he finished the season with 39 sacks and had four rushing touchdowns.

Kaepernick's raw numbers paint a murky picture. They don't decisively say that he was more productive in one season over the next. Instead, they show some improvement in certain areas and some decline in others.

In terms of his actual performance and his value moving forward, they tell us nothing of value.

During the 2013 season, Kaepernick played a completely different role to the one he played in 2014. Yes, he was still the starting quarterback of offensive coordinator Greg Roman's offense, but Roman's offense is now completely different. In previous seasons, the 49ers had built their offense on the running game and an exceptional offensive line.

2014 was the first year when they attempted to shift most of the responsibility within the offense onto Kaepernick's shoulders. In 2014, Roman had been given a plethora of new receiving weapons to add to Kaepernick's arsenal.

Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Bruce Ellington and an available Michael Crabtree completely altered the appearance of the 49ers' wide receiver depth chart entering this season.

Lloyd returned from a one-year absence after being released by the New England Patriots before the 2013 season. Johnson was acquired in a relatively cheap trade after the Buffalo Bills drafted Sammy Watkins. Ellington was a fourth-round draft pick, while Crabtree wasn't sidelined by a torn Achilles tendon like he had been before 2013.

With these new weapons and the lingering absences of starting right guard Alex Boone—holding out for a new contract—and starting right tackle Anthony Davis—injured—it was no surprise that the 49ers wanted Kaepernick to carry more of the offense.

Instead of relying on the ageless Frank Gore and the youthful energy of Carlos Hyde in the running game, the 49ers turned to a quarterback who was unproven outside of the offense's previous construction.

When Kaepernick was at his best, the 49ers established the run with Gore. Kaepernick played a part in establishing the run as he was a threat to carry the ball himself, but Gore typically drew most of the offense's attention behind an exceptional offensive line.

As the versatile rushing attack disrupted the offense's coverages and put Kaepernick in space to throw the ball, the young starter wasn't being asked to mitigate pressure in tight pockets while making coverage reads down the field.

Instead, Kaepernick could primarily make first-read throws or rely on play action to create obvious space for himself. Once the 49ers moved away from that identity, Kaepernick was asked to do things that his skill set simply isn't built to do.

As early as his very first start against the Chicago Bears two years ago, Kaepernick was making exceptional throws as part of the previous offensive philosophy.

Credit: NFL.com

This play comes from his very first drive in that game. As the above image shows, the 49ers came out in a heavy formation on 2nd-and-9 that suggests they are going to run the ball. As a result, the Bears have nine defenders in the box.

Because this was Kaepernick's first start, the Bears are being exceptionally aggressive in this situation. But this type of reaction isn't in complete contrast to the typical reactions that defenses have had to the 49ers' 2012 and 2013 offenses.

Credit: NFL.com

At the snap, Kaepernick turns around and fakes a handoff to Gore up the middle. Incredibly, only one player initially commits to running a route down the field. That player is wide receiver Randy Moss, who lined up to the left side of the field.

Moss runs a deep post route infield, and it's important to note where he starts that route because of how the play develops.

Credit: NFL.com

With a slight delay, tight end Vernon Davis also releases into a route down the field. Davis was initially lined up to the left of the formation, so he is releasing into his route behind Moss. This keeps Kaepernick's two receiving options in one area of the field.

Critically, Kaepernick is standing in space, looking at just one side of the field. He doesn't have to manage a tight pocket or read/manipulate the coverage with his eyes.

Credit: NFL.com

The formation and action of the play puts Davis in space against Bears safety Major Wright. Davis easily beats Wright, but Kaepernick still has a tough throw to make because the tight end is running a corner route that drags him to the sideline.

Kaepernick has to drop the ball over Davis' shoulder without leading him too far toward the sideline.

On this play, the physical act of throwing the football was very difficult, but the other quarterback mechanisms didn't actually exist. There was no mitigating pressure behind an eight-man protection. There wasn't any coverage read or manipulation from that wide-open pocket. Kaepernick didn't even have to hold the ball for long before delivering it.

His arm talent is as impressive as any quarterback's in the league, and while his mechanics can be inconsistent, they're not so bad that they handicap his accuracy.

Even though NFL defenses want their opponents to run simplified offenses because they are easier to defend, they become exceptionally difficult to defend when those running the offense have special traits. Kaepernick has a bunch of special traits, and his physical ability to throw the ball is one.

Kaepernick is 27 years old and has been in the NFL for several years now. His development is likely over at this stage. He hasn't developed into a well-rounded quarterback, and that is something that the 49ers have found out this season.

Development is something that is too often presumed in younger, talented players. When those players don't develop, they are unfairly criticized for not reaching expectations that were simply never within their grasp.

Just because a player is physically talented, it doesn't mean he is without certain limitations. Kaepernick shouldn't be asked to run the same offense as Peyton Manning, while Manning shouldn't be asked to run the same offense as Kaepernick.

That is always received as a slight against the obviously inferior quarterback, but Manning wouldn't be good in the role Kaepernick filled during 2012 and 2013. That's not just because of his inability to run either.

When Manning brings his offense to the line of scrimmage, he is immediately diagnosing the defense and figuring out the best way to attack it through the air. He flourishes within the confines of the pocket, making his offensive linemen look better and stretching the coverage to every area of the field.

Through 2014, we have seen repeated examples of Kaepernick's inability to do that.

Credit: NFL.com

This play against the Arizona Cardinals from this season comes on a 1st-and-10. Kaepernick isn't placed in a tight formation that can threaten the defense with play action. Instead, he has five receiving targets spreading the field lined up ahead of him.

Kaepernick won't be given extra protection or a one-side-of-the-field read. He will be tasked with managing the pocket and reading the coverage downfield.

Credit: NFL.com

At the snap, the Cardinals rush only four defenders. When Kaepernick's back foot hits the end of his drop, he is looking down the middle of the field, and he has to hold on to the ball longer to get a clearer image of who is going to be open when he wants to deliver the ball.

Kaepernick isn't an anticipation thrower; he must see the open receiver before he lets the ball go.

Credit: NFL.com

After initially settling at the top of his drop, Kaepernick is forced to step up because pressure is coming off his right side. Kaepernick does a good job to recognize this and step up without dropping his eyes, but as he lands forward, he completely abandons his footwork in the pocket so he can scramble.

Kaepernick didn't give his receivers a chance because his eyes had dropped and he was running before he needed to.

The quarterback would have had a couple options if he had been patient in the pocket.

Credit: NFL.com

On 1st-and-10, he doesn't need to force the ball to any receiver down the field. However, the shot-play option was there if he could have anticipated the coverage over his deep receivers running down the field. The deep crossing receiver and deep seam receiver were putting pressure on the deep safety.

Because the deep safety went with the crossing route, Anquan Boldin, the seam receiver, was left in a one-on-one situation with inside leverage. Kaepernick can comfortably make a throw to the middle of the field that would lead that receiver to the end zone.

Understandably, Kaepernick may not have wanted to force that pass if he had seen it (although it's safe to say he didn't see it because his eyes dropped). If he didn't want to force a pass downfield on 1st-and-10, he had a wide-open curl route to the left of the field for what would have been a first down.

Instead of throwing either of those passes, Kaepernick ran into the flat.

Credit: NFL.com

Once Kaepernick breaks the pocket, Johnson continues his crossing route before making a great adjustment to come wide open down the sideline. Kaepernick has the kind of arm talent to make this throw on the run, but he turns it down despite the wide-open space he could drop the ball into.

Kaepernick eventually scrambles for a decent gain on a play that he turns into a profit with his athleticism. However, more often than not, he leaves yards on the field by doing this. So even when it works out, it still prevents the offense from reaching its full potential.

In an ideal world, the 49ers would move on from Kaepernick to find a player who didn't have his egregious flaws. However, in the real world, they're much more likely to find a player with different, but just as egregious, flaws who lacks the ability to make positive plays or be successful when used improperly.

Presuming a new coach takes over in San Francisco, he will likely be stuck with Kaepernick even if he doesn't want to be.

If the new coach recognizes that the franchise's offense wasn't playing to the strengths of its quarterback, then he can consider rectifying those mistakes and moving forward with Kaepernick while expecting success. If the new coach doesn't, then the same problems will likely continue for many seasons to come.

More than any other sport, the NFL and the NFL's media coverage trap themselves in the moment.

This time last year, Kaepernick was still considered one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL—he was untouchable as the 49ers' long-term option. Now, his viability as a starter has been called into question. Like any other position in the NFL, quarterbacks are very inconsistent.

Unless you are considered a superstar or have a Super Bowl ring, your inconsistencies and flaws are going to be magnified and overblown in the same way your play will be overblown if you can be effective early in your career. Nuance with quarterbacks plays a huge role because it is such a sensitive position.

Each of the 32 starters plays a different role, and each starter is connected to a different quality of supporting cast.

Is Kaepernick a good starting quarterback who's worthy of being a long-term starter for the 49ers? Sure, if he's used correctly and surrounded by the right pieces. Is Kaepernick massively flawed and incapable of being one of the best quarterbacks in the league? Sure, if he's used incorrectly and surrounded by the wrong pieces.

Unless a dramatic trade occurs, the 49ers aren't going to find a better option than Kaepernick between now and the start of next season. That, more than anything else, will prevent them from giving up on him.