Colts vs. Cowboys: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

So, the Indianapolis Colts are in the playoffs.

After a 17-10 win over the Houston Texans in Week 15, the Colts have clinched their third consecutive playoff spot, this time via an AFC South division title. 

But just because the Colts are assured a playoff spot doesn't mean they have nothing to play for during the last two weeks of the regular season. The Colts still have a seed to fight for. The third or fourth seed is most likely, but a bye is technically still possible if New England or Denver lose each of their last two games. 

Even when it comes to the third and fourth seeds, the Colts may very well prefer one or the other, depending on who the AFC's fifth and sixth seeds are. The Colts match up much better with Baltimore and Cincinnati (volatile quarterbacks that can be thrown off by blitzes) than they do with any of the other potential matchups, and they may want to ensure the best possible seed to make sure they play at least one of those teams. 

Plus, when it comes to this team's mindset, as instilled by head coach Chuck Pagano, resting entire first-string units doesn't seem probable. Even Andrew Luck will likely be playing most of the next two games, as Pagano told reporters this week, via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk:

"

To sit him? Why? You could walk out of this building and get run over tonight. You know what I mean. You’ve got to live. You go tell him. That’s the way he is. We’ve got to make decisions, do the right thing and protect guys from themselves in the right situation. But we’re going to try to win a football game and we’re going to play.

"

So, expect a fully prepared Colts team to go into Dallas on Sunday afternoon with all intentions of winning their 11th game of the season. Here are a few areas on which the Colts could focus in order to get their third consecutive 11-win season.

Offense: Attack, Attack, Attack

Against the Houston Texans last week, the Colts got a little too complacent at times offensively, especially in the second half. With a slight lead and a lifeless Houston offense, the Colts never really had a sense of urgency offensively. Unfortunately, this has been the case for the last month, having played Houston, Cleveland, Washington and Jacksonville in that time period. 

But Dallas presents a much different problem. The Cowboys offense is one of the best in the league, and they'll keep the Colts on their toes throughout the day. On the road, the Colts will need the offense to be aggressive and explosive. 

On one hand, that means cleaning up the execution on critical third downs, allowing the Colts to extend drives. Dallas allows the league's fourth-highest third-down conversion rate (44.7 percent), so the Colts should be able to get back on track in that department this week. 

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Another area in which the Colts should focus is getting Donte Moncrief involved in the game plan early. Last week, the Colts only targeted the rookie three times, despite the fact that Houston was keyed in on T.Y. Hilton.

Dallas allows a DVOA of 36.5 percent to No. 2 receivers, the second-worst rate in the league, per Football Outsiders. While Reggie Wayne is still technically the No. 2 receiver for Indianapolis, he's often in the slot in three-receiver sets while Moncrief takes the traditional "No. 2" outside role.

The Colts have gotten Moncrief more involved in the past via things like crossing routes and shallow dig routes to set up deep balls later on, but they didn't do that against Houston. Doing so against Dallas could prove to be very profitable, especially as the Colts try to fine-tune the offense going into the playoffs. 

Offense: Run from Shotgun Sets

Last week, Indianapolis ran running back Dan Herron out of the shotgun on draw plays seven times for 47 yards (6.71 yards per carry). Herron displayed sharp lateral quickness matched with a striking initial burst which allowed him to quickly get through holes and pick up chunk yardage throughout the game. 

Three of those carries came on the final drive, as the Colts ran the ball seven consecutive times to get down into the red zone and chew up over five minutes of the fourth quarter. 

This is something the Colts should be able to do more often. 

With defenses spending so many resources to guard against the Colts' explosive passing plays over the last two weeks, Indianapolis sees more than its share of six-man boxes. 

Against Dallas, which ranks 27th in the league in run DVOA allowed, the Colts should be able to continue the positive trend in the run game, especially if Herron is given most of the carrying duties.  

Defense: Target DeMarco Murray (and the ball) Early

Michael Perez/Associated Press

The difficult thing about the Dallas offense is how balanced it is. With a powerful offensive line that can both pave the way for DeMarco Murray as well as keep Tony Romo relatively well-protected leading the way, the Cowboys are dangerous in a multitude of ways. 

Your best bet at defending it is to have a disruptive defensive line that can hold its own against that offensive line. Unfortunately, the Colts defensive line hasn't shown itself to be that kind of unit, except in flashes. Having Arthur Jones back in the lineup could be a big boost, but he's been very inconsistent so far this season. 

No, relying on the defensive line to have a strong game this week would be overzealous for Indianapolis. As such, the team should send linebacker and safety help toward Murray early in this game. Not only should the Colts be attacking Murray early because of his potential fumbling problems, but the Colts should try to limit Murray early so the Cowboys are forced to throw the ball. 

The Cowboys rushing and passing units alone are dangerous enough; allowing them to be unpredictable would be terrifying for the Colts defense. 

Defense: Give Help On Dez Bryant and Jason Witten

When Dallas does choose to go to the air, the Colts should have their eyes on two targets: Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. 

Just last week Bryant and Witten combined for 183 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches. Since an early-season rush, second wide receiver Terrance Williams has been shut down, and he should be able to be handled by either of the Colts cornerbacks. 

The Colts really have to find one-on-one matchups between Bryant and Witten and make sure that that defender has help over the top. Those two are the lifeblood of the Cowboys passing offense, and it's not particularly close. 

Sure, the Colts will be running stunts and blitzes to try to manufacture pressure against Romo, but that should still leave room for coverages to slide some extra help toward Bryant and Witten. Bryant matched up one-on-one with anybody not named Vontae Davis is very dangerous territory. Witten matched up one-on-one with a linebacker is even more perilous.