Colts' 3rd-Down Struggles Leading to Offensive Slump

One of the big areas where the Indianapolis Colts wanted to improve upon in 2014 was third-down performance.

The Colts were just 16th in third-down conversion rate last year, converting 37.6 percent. Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton made raising that number one of the top priorities over the offseason, per The Fort Wayne News-Sentinel's Reggie Hayes: 

"

I think we should be a better situational team now that we have the likes of Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back, as well as the guys that we already had working in our receiving corps and tight end corps. In those situations, it's all about matchups, putting guys in a position to make a play and letting our playmakers do what they do best.

"

Well, for much of 2014, the Colts did just that. 

After a slow start in the Colts' opening two losses—in which they converted just 32 percent of third downs—the Colts quickly became one of the league's best third-down teams. Through Week 13, the Colts had converted 45.6 percent of their third-down attempts, the sixth-highest rate in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference. 

But the Colts have struggled on third down over the last two weeks, and it's been a huge part of their offensive struggles. 

Weeks	Attempts	Conversions	Rate	Avg. Yds to Go	Average Gain
1-2	25	8	32%	7.04	6.72
3-13	132	65	49.2%	6.49	7.95
14-15	27	7	25.9%	6.67	3.74

The Colts have converted just under 26 percent of their third downs over the last two weeks, including an abysmal 2-for-11 performance against the Houston Texans at home on Sunday. 

So why have the Colts struggled so much? 

Well, it's not because of the situation. The Colts averaged 6.56 yards to go over the first 13 weeks of the season and 6.67 yards to go over the last two weeks (which drops to 6.46 if you include the fourth-down attempt against the Cleveland Browns).

It's not because of play-calling, in terms of runs and passes. The Colts only ran on 11 percent of third downs over the last two weeks, which is the same amount they've run on third down all season (QB scrambles being passing downs). 

Some would point to Andrew Luck as slumping over this time, as he's gone just 5-of-20 on third down over the last three weeks for 124 yards and been sacked three times. But it's much more complex than that. While Luck has missed a few throws, he's also been let down quite a bit by his supporting staff. 

Main Culprit	Number	Notes
Luck Throw	3	Too high for Richardson, overthrown deep to Moncrief, too late to Hilton (vs. CLE)
Luck Decision	3	Generally influenced by pressure
Receiver Drop	2	One by Hilton, one by Fleener, both vs. Houston
Receiver Route	3	Two by Fleener, one by Nicks
Offensive Line Pass Blocking	3	One Shipley, one Harrison (poor communication w/ G too), one Cherilus
Offensive Line Run Blocking	2	One on Castonzo, one on Allen
Blitz/Stunt Pickup	4	Two on Harrison, two on Richardson
Bad Luck/Defense	3	Two tipped at the line, one with stellar coverage and nowhere for Luck to go

Pep Hamilton's play-calling on third down has been suspect at times, especially last season, but after watching each third down over the last two weeks, I can say that play-calling wasn't much of an issue, save for a few plays. 

For example, calling a Luck play-action bootleg on 3rd-and-1 at the end of the Texans game seemed a little too cute. The Colts had gotten into the red zone with power running, mainly by Dan Herron. The run game was working; there was no need to go away from it there. Any team should be able to get one yard in two attempts (they faced a 2nd-and-1 on the previous play, but Richardson was stopped short).

But outside of that play, and perhaps one or two other questionable instances, Hamilton's play-calling was adequate at the least and occasionally stellar. 

No, where the Colts failed was execution from Luck, the offensive line and the pass-catchers.

Let's take a look at the tape on a few plays to extrapolate on this.

Against Cleveland, the Colts' biggest issue was the Browns' combination of pressure and tight man coverage, especially early in the game. The Browns ran a lot of blitzes and stunts, which confused the Colts offensive line early while the Cleveland defensive backs got physical with the Colts receivers. 

Take this play with 2:45 left in the first quarter, for example.

NFL Game Rewind

Trent Richardson sees the defensive tackle in front of him stunt to the other side of the line but doesn't anticipate or see the tackle from the other side coming around. He kicks out too early and Luck has a defender right in his face that forces him to scramble to his left.

NFL Game Rewind

None of Luck's receivers on the left have gotten any separation, and Luck's attempt to Reggie Wayne is knocked down. 

Sometimes this pressure caused Luck to force throws—or miss them. 

On this play, for example, A.Q. Shipley is bull-rushed into Luck, and Luck doesn't see the inside linebacker sneaking back over toward Wayne. The play nearly resulted in a pick-six. 

NFL Game Rewind

There were a few other failings against Cleveland, including Hakeem Nicks running a horrifically lazy out route in the third quarter, but most of them could be traced back to pressure and tight coverage by Cleveland. With the Browns boasting one of the league's best pass defenses, it wasn't surprising.

The Colts' awful showing against Houston, however, was mostly about Indianapolis. While Houston did play much better in the secondary than the Colts' first game against them, the Colts missed some big opportunities on Sunday. 

Nobody escaped the blame, not Andrew Luck (who missed Donte Moncrief on an open post route for what could have been an 81-yard touchdown), not his receivers (Fleener and Hilton both dropped catches for first downs) and not his blocking (J.J. Watt's influence was felt throughout the day). 

Occasionally, it was a combination of multiple factors. 

Take Luck's pick-six in the first quarter, for example. 

Having had a free inside linebacker take a shot at him on the previous play, Luck was wary of the A-gap blitz the Texans showed pre-snap and was ready to go to his hot read, Coby Fleener. 

Fleener, however, doesn't read the same coverage that Luck does. He continues to run forward while Luck anticipates him sitting in the gap, and the ball sails through unimpeded to Houston safety Kendrick Lewis. 

NFL Game Rewind

Whose fault is it? A little bit of everybody. 

The offensive line's failings on the previous play set Luck on edge from the get-go. Fleener wasn't on the same page as his quarterback.

Luck rushed his read despite having a clean pocket. While Fleener, had he sat in the gap, may have had enough room to get a first down, it would have been a long shot with the safety bearing down on him. So, with no pressure, Luck's decision is difficult to swallow, even if he was right about the coverage and Fleener made a mistake. 

It was a perfect storm of sloppy execution and communication, which was a theme for the Colts. Third downs are when players need to be executing at their highest level, and it just wasn't the case on Sunday. 

The Colts can't afford to be sloppy against better teams, especially not in the playoffs. Chuck Pagano and the coaching staff needs to have the team better prepared and better focused in key situations. Having multiple drops on third down for two consecutive weeks, for example, is unacceptable. 

In Week 16, the Colts will have a good measuring stick when they visit the Dallas Cowboys. They'll need to prove that their recent third-down struggles were the exception to the rule, not an emerging trend.