What to Expect from Michael Crabtree, 49ers Offense in Week 13
The San Francisco 49ers welcome bitter rivals the Seattle Seahawks to Levi's Stadium on Thanksgiving for a crucial NFC West matchup that is likely to prove pivotal in the race for the playoffs.
With both the Niners and Seahawks standing at 7-4, the loser of this much-anticipated clash will face an uphill battle to emerge from a hotly contested conference with a postseason berth.
Thursday's encounter pits the NFL's top two defensive units against each other, meaning that the game could well be decided by the offense that performs better.
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Neither the Niners nor the Seahawks have played particularly well on the offensive side of the ball in 2014, with San Francisco struggling to move the ball consistently—especially in the second half of games, when the 49ers have scored a league-worst six touchdowns.
That is hardly the kind of form you want to be in heading into a meeting with the Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary, which held division leaders the Arizona Cardinals to just 140 yards passing in Week 12 and is ranked at No. 4 in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus (subscription required), although that is actually two spots below the Niners.
In order for the 49ers to gain success against Seattle's much-vaunted pass defense, quarterback Colin Kaepernick will need a good performance from his wide receivers, the majority of whom have struggled for consistency these season, aside from Anquan Boldin—who is bearing down on another 1,000-yard season—and Stevie Johnson.
But the spotlight in terms of wideouts is most likely to be on Michael Crabtree.
Crabtree was prevented from bringing in the game-winning touchdown in last season's NFC Championship Game as Seattle corner Richard Sherman tipped Kaepernick's pass into the arms of linebacker Malcolm Smith, and will surely be out to prove that he can best Sherman as the Niners seek a measure of revenge for that defeat.
The former Texas Tech man has been inconsistent at best this season. Here I go through what to expect from Crabtree and the 49er offense in their biggest game of the campaign so far.
Crabtree's Performance
After missing most of the 2013 season but excelling during the playoffs, most expected Crabtree to return to the form of 2012, when he put up his only 1,000-yard campaign, finishing with 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns.
Instead, Crabtree has endured a largely disappointing year that has been marred by dropped passes—of which he has recorded nine, according to PFF—and his own discontent over his role in the offense, with the 27-year-old claiming that he is just "a third-down receiver" following the Week 10 overtime win over the New Orleans Saints.
In 2014 Crabtree has 48 receptions for 567 yards and four touchdowns, disappointing numbers, but still enough to suggest that he can be a threat to the Seahawks' top-ranked defense.
Crabtree has excelled mostly on routes over the middle, where he has recorded 24 of his catches for 332 yards and two touchdowns, per PFF. Meanwhile, he has struggled markedly when targeted on routes to the right side of the field, making just 10 receptions for 90 yards.
In his two meetings with the Seahawks last season, Crabtree was held to eight receptions for 92 yards; however, the productive outings he has enjoyed in 2014, particularly his 10-catch performance versus the Arizona Cardinals, indicate that he could post better statistics this time around.
In that encounter, Crabtree caught 10 of his 11 targets for 80 yards, a display that served as a clear illustration of his strengths as a receiver.
Here working against Jerraud Powers, Crabtree gains enough separation with an inside move and is able to make the catch across the middle in traffic for a 12-yard gain despite the low ball thrown by Kaepernick.
The bad throw from Kaepernick left Crabtree unable to make any yards after the catch, an area in which he excels but has been unable to make a consistent impact in 2014. Crabtree has 197 YAC yards this term, per PFF, however, he once again demonstrated his significant ability to turn short-to-medium throws into big plays in the Week 11 16-10 victory over the New York Giants.
Crabtree scored the only 49ers touchdown of the game by taking a strike from Kaepernick into the end zone for a 48-yard score. Here he once again gains plenty of separation from opposing corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on an inside route and then races past several Giant defenders to give the Niners breathing room in a close contest.
Despite his issues with drops, Crabtree still has the tools to make game-changing plays on a consistent basis. The problem approaching Week 13 is that he will be facing a Seattle secondary that excels in limiting the big play. But, with the Niners likely in need of a strong showing through the air, how can they, and Crabtree in particular, exploit the back end of the Seahawks defense?
Seattle's Strong Secondary
As one of the Niners' top two receivers, Crabtree will see plenty of Seattle's starting corners, Sherman and Byron Maxwell, who serve as one of the better cornerback tandems in the league.
Sherman is rated as the No. 5 corner in the NFL by PFF and, although Maxwell is ranked 65 places below his teammate, both starters have allowed just one touchdown in coverage in 2014. Yet, for all their talent, the Seahawks defensive backs are far from unbeatable.
The air of invincibility that previously surrounded Sherman has slipped somewhat, while Maxwell—per PFF—has allowed opposing receivers to catch the ball 68.9 percent of the time when in his coverage.
Seattle has also proven to be particularly vulnerable when defending the slot, with nickel corner Jeremy Lane giving up three catches in the success versus Arizona and Marcus Burley permitting wideouts to make 75 percent of receptions in his coverage before Lane's activation to the 53-man roster.
The Seahawks may have throttled the Cardinals last week, but Arizona's rookie wideout John Brown was able to enjoy something of a productive day by putting up 61 yards on three catches, a performance that should offer encouragement to Crabtree.
Take Brown's 22-yard reception from Drew Stanton, for example, the rookie receiver easily beats Maxwell off the line to the inside before cutting to his left to make the catch for a significant gain.
Brown got the better of Maxwell on more than one occasion in this outing, and Sherman has also been troubled by a rookie this season, with the Giants' first-year sensation Odell Beckham Jr. besting him in a one-on-one matchup multiple times in New York's 38-17 loss to the Seahawks.
Beckham's biggest play of that game, as shown above, came on a 44-yard reception from Eli Manning in which he perfectly executed a double move to leave Sherman trailing and Manning with a relatively simple pitch and catch.
Seattle's cornerback duo remains one of the top pairings in the NFL; however, the fact that they have at times failed to adequately cover inexperienced wideouts should offer hope to 49er fans that an experienced route-runner like Crabtree can have similar success.
Greg Roman's Game Plan
Crabtree's performance will obviously depend on what game plan offensive coordinator Greg Roman prepares. And, if recent weeks are anything to go by, the likelihood is that it will be largely focused on the running game.
Tailbacks Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde have seen an increased workload the last three weeks, and that emphasis on the ground game has paid dividends, although the Niners were held to just 66 rushing yards by the Washington Redskins in Week 12.
Seattle is strong against the run, allowing 88.4 yards per game; however, the Seahawks have historically struggled to keep Gore in check. The 49ers' all-time leading rusher has averaged 85.3 yards per game against the Hawks, putting up 100 yards on the ground in five of his 16 regular-season meetings with them.
| Carries | Yards | YPC | TD | |
| 2008 | 19 | 94 | 5.22 | 0 |
| 2009 | 16 | 207 | 12.94 | 2 |
| 2011 | 22 | 59 | 2.68 | 0 |
| 2012 | 16 | 131 | 8.19 | 0 |
| 2013 | 17 | 110 | 6.47 | 0 |
Dan Quinn's Seattle defense will undoubtedly be keen to avoid Gore gashing them on the ground once again and, given the confidence the Seahawks have in their corners, are unlikely to be fazed by the prospect of staying in man-to-man coverage in order to allow more defenders to focus on nullifying the potential threat of Gore and Hyde.
Still, as has been clear throughout 2014, Seattle's secondary does not possess the same reputation it did last year, and—although Gore figures to be the Niners' most utilized offensive threat—San Francisco will certainly attack Seattle with the short-to-medium throws that Crabtree, Boldin and Johnson can turn into big gains.
What to Expect
It is crunch time for the 49ers offense: Fail to perform this week, and San Francisco's season could well be over in December for the first time since 2010.
With that in mind, it is fair to anticipate that the Niners will put the ball in the tried and trusted hands of Gore and try to wear down Seattle's stout run defense. Yet, versus a team as tough as the Seahawks, the Niners cannot afford to be one-dimensional.
That is where Boldin and Crabtree come into play. Kaepernick has plenty of faith in both of his top targets and, while neither is going to burn an opposing corner on a deep ball, expect each of them to receive plenty of targets over the middle in traffic and be challenged to go up for contested catches.
In a contract year, Crabtree has plenty to prove. On Thanksgiving in prime time against the 49ers' biggest rival, he will not get a better opportunity to display his quality, save for a prospective playoff game.
Crabtree's ability to make clutch plays has shone through in recent weeks. Versus a player in Sherman that openly mocked him after the NFC title game, expect a determined Crabtree to enjoy a productive day and help extend Seattle's six-year wait for a win at San Francisco.
All team statistics courtesy of NFL.com and all individual statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise stated.
Nicholas McGee is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist based in Leeds, England. Follow him on Twitter @nicholasmcgee24.
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