Chiefs Must Open Up Offense to Take Next Step in the AFC

The Kansas City Chiefs came into Thursday night's game against the Oakland Raiders on a five-game winning streak and with a chance to move (however briefly) into first place in the AFC West.

Instead of cementing the team as one of the top in the conference, the Chiefs found a way to fall short against the previously winless Raiders.

Aside from allowing a long 90-yard run by Latavius Murray, the Chiefs defense did its part. The defense certainly played well enough for a 7-3 (heading into the game) team to win.

Rookie Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was held to 174 yards passing during an 18-of-35 performance. No Oakland receiver logged more than 55 yards receiving on the night. Take away Murray's big run, and the Raiders averaged just 3.07 yards per carry.

Make no mistake. Giving up 24 points to an 0-10 team hurts. However, the defense was not the reason why the Chiefs lost on Thursday night.

It's hard to fault the efficiency of the Chiefs offense as well. Quarterback Alex Smith finished the night a respectable 20-of-36 for 234 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Jamaal Charles ran for 80 yards on 19 carries and added 42 yards and a score on four receptions.

The problem for Kansas City is efficiency and baseline statistics don't win football games. The ability to capitalize on opportunities and hit the big offensive play will.

Kansas City's biggest offensive play on Thursday went for 30 yards (a Charles TD reception). Chiefs wide receivers combined for just 80 yards receiving.

A reliance on checkdown passes and outlet throws has become a trend in the Kansas City offense this season. 

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Smith entered Week 12 ranked 11th overall among quarterbacks. Yet, he is tied for 27th in yards per attempts with an average of 6.9.

This suggests, while Smith is careful with the football, he also doesn't make a lot of throws downfield. The fact no Chiefs wide receiver has logged a touchdown reception or more than 600 yards receiving this season shows Smith's modest average is partially due to not throwing downfield to outside receivers.

For the better part of the season, this hasn't created a problem for the Chiefs. Kansas City has seven wins and a good chance of making the postseason. 

In games like the one on Thursday night, however, the inability to attack downfield has been a problem. It could also prove to be a problem down the stretch and potentially in the playoffs.

Consider the fact Kansas City's longest pass play this season went for 34 yards (to tight end Travis Kelce). The 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars have had four pass-catchers haul in longer passes this season.

This is a problem for the Chiefs because, until they prove they can pass long, teams are going to load the box, play shallow coverage and dare Smith to beat them deep. To this point, the Chiefs haven't proved they can beat opponents deep.

	Att	Comp	Accuracy %	% of Total Attempts
Aaron Rodgers	30	16	56.7	9.6
Joe Flacco	36	14	52.8	10.3
Drew Brees	38	15	52.6	9.1
Brian Hoyer	50	25	52.0	15.3
Alex Smith	13	5	46.2	4.5
Russell Wilson	29	11	44.8	10.0

Not only does this put Kansas City at a disadvantage in 2nd- and 3rd-and-long situations, it prevents opposing defenses from being at a disadvantage on early downs. Against the Raiders, Kansas City was 2-of-14 on third down. 

On Thursday—a four-point contest in which the Chiefs once recovered a fumble at the opposition’s 11-yard line and settled for a field goal—Kansas City's inability to gain chunk yardage cost the team in a big way.

If the Chiefs make the postseason and have to face the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots of the football world, that inability to strike downfield is likely to cost them again.