5 Bold Predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers' Week 11 Matchup
With only one week before the bye, the Pittsburgh Steelers will look to regain some momentum against the Tennessee Titans.
Last week, the Steelers had a chance to take control of the AFC North with a win against the New York Jets—a team in the midst of an eight-game losing streak—but failed to capitalize. Not only did they lose, but they also did not look good in the process.
What had been an offensive juggernaut for the previous two weeks was only able to score 13 points against a woeful Jets secondary. As they enter Week 11, the Steelers get to face one of the worst rush defenses in the league in the Titans, but they're also starting a rookie quarterback.
This is the type of game that can help a team get back on track, but as we all learned last week against the New York Jets and earlier in the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Steelers can lose to even the worst that the NFL has to offer.
Can the Steelers earn a win as they enter the bye week, or will they suffer a second consecutive loss and fall back toward .500? Here are five bold predictions as they enter their Week 11 prime-time matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
Martavis Bryant Leads All Receivers
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Martavis Bryant spent the first six weeks of the season sitting on the bench. It is hard to believe he sat for so long given his production since he stepped onto the field for the first time in Week 7 against the Houston Texans.
Since then, he has established himself as one of the best offensive weapons on the Steelers with six of his 14 receptions going for touchdowns. He has at least one score in all four games that he has played in and had his first game with over 100 receiving yards last week.
"Tomlin: Martavis Bryant getting better since he started playing. Improved more while playing than he did sitting. (Go figure.) #Steelers
— Alan Robinson (@arobinson_Trib) November 11, 2014
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Expect Bryant’s production to continue against the Titans this week. He has continued to develop as Ben Roethlisberger’s third-favorite target with 25 targets over the past four games. During this time, he has had 310 yards and averaged 22.1 yards per reception.
Bryant is still a package player, but he continues to improve each week. He has already earned the trust of his quarterback and will continue to see an increased number of targets as the season progresses, especially on deep passes.
Roethlisberger connected with Bryant for an 80-yard touchdown reception last week, and he will have at least one long touchdown against the Titans. His combination of speed and size is too hard to defend, which makes this a good matchup for the Steelers.
Big Day for Outside Linebackers
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It is bad news any time a rookie quarterback has to face Pittsburgh’s defense. This week is no exception, as Pittsburgh gets its first crack at Zach Mettenberger in just the third start of his career.
Over his first two starts, Mettenberger was sacked seven times, including five times last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Four of those sacks came from the outside linebackers—Elvis Dumervil with 2.5 and Terrell Suggs with 1.5.
That is encouraging for Jason Worilds and James Harrison, who have combined for 7.5 sacks this season.
Harrison accumulated all four of his sacks in a two-game stretch against the Colts and Ravens ,while Worilds has been incredibly streaky, with sacks in only three of the Steelers' 10 games this year. He only has 3.5 sacks after recording 1.5 sacks against the Jets last week.
Unlike Michael Vick, Andrew Luck and some of the other quarterbacks the Steelers have faced in recent weeks, the defense will not have to worry about quick decision-making or the threat of running.
In a 2013 scouting report, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com highlighted Mettenberger’s lack of athleticism:
"Mettenberger is a traditional drop-back passer with limited mobility and movement skills. He is at his best delivering throws from a clean pocket; he lacks the elusiveness to escape pressure when protection breaks down. Although Mettenberger flashes the short-area quickness to slide, reset and deliver accurate throws, the fact that he is unable to escape heavy pressure by relying on his legs could make him a bit of a liability at the next level. Of course, Mettenberger can overcome his deficiencies by winning the pre-snap phase at the line of scrimmage, but he must be superb in that area to be effective as a pro.
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Besides his limited mobility in the pocket, Brooks indicated that pressure could rattle Mettenberger:
"One of the weakest parts of Mettenberger's game a season ago was his lack of pocket awareness and poise. He appeared rattled and unsettled within a collapsing pocket, which led to questionable decisions and inaccurate throws.
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An attacking defense will limit Mettenberger’s effectiveness, with much of the pressure coming from the outside linebackers. Worilds and Harrison will combine for three sacks against the rookie.
Titans Offense Will Perform Better Than Rankings
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You can throw out the rankings when it comes to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. From the failure to run against the Jacksonville Jaguars to the inability to put up points through the air against the New York Jets, the Steelers have failed to exploit various statistical and personnel mismatches.
The Titans enter Week 11 with one of the worst offensive units in the league in total yards and points, only scoring at least 20 points in two games this year. Things are not getting any better, either.
Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com examined the Titans’ fall in offensive production:
"The Titans have held steady with the worst third-down offense in the league. They've held that spot for five weeks. Inevitably, it's dragged down the entire offense. After five weeks, the Titans were tied for 19th in total offense. Since then they've worked their way down to 31st.
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However, the Titans have some nice offensive weapons that are poised for a breakout game.
Pittsburgh is susceptible to the run on defense, and Bishop Sankey has the speed to carve out chunks of yardage at a time. On the outside, Nate Washington and Kendall Wright provide big-play opportunities, while Delanie Walker provides a threat at tight end if he is able to return from a concussion.
This game is not about what the Titans can do, but rather what the Steelers cannot. Their defense has not proven to be consistent enough to stop even the worst offenses in the league. The Titans will not light up the scoreboard, but they will be able to have a similar effort to the Jets last week and keep this a close game.
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Le’Veon Bell Will Be Limited on the Ground
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Once a focal point of the offense, Le’Veon Bell’s production has dwindled ever since the emergence of an aggressive air attack.
Bell only has two 100-yard rushing games on the season and has not averaged over 4.0 yards per carry since Week 7. His past two games were his least productive of the year, with only 56 combined yards with an average of 2.67 yards per carry.
While he remains an active part of the passing game, the Steelers need more from Bell on the ground. The Titans present the perfect opportunity for Pittsburgh to get the running game going. They rank 29th against the run with 136.6 yards allowed per game, including 151 allowed against the Ravens last week.
Scott Brown of ESPN.com wrote that the Steelers could control things on offense if they establish a strong ground game, saying, "They [Steelers] let the Jets dictate what they did offensively in a 20-13 loss Sunday, throwing underneath passes too frequently against a secondary that started a pair of backups at cornerback."
The Steelers must be the aggressor against the reeling Titans, and it starts with the run.
As good as this matchup appears—the Steelers rank 15th in rushing—the Titans will be ready for Bell just as the Jets were ready for the Steelers’ passing game last week. Todd Haley was unable to take advantage of a weak secondary against New York, and there may be similar results with the ground game this week.
However, one X-factor that the Steelers do have is Mike Munchak. He knows the Titans very well and will be able to help scheme for the Titans’ defensive front. But even with his presence, Bell will once again be held under 100 yards and without a touchdown.
The offensive line is not run-blocking very well, and even if they do, Bell will not get enough touchdowns to break the century mark. In the red zone, his attempts have been limited, and this will lead to him being held scoreless again.
"Bell has just 8 carries from inside the 10-yard line this season, and just 16 RZ totes. R.Jennings has more RZ carries and missed four games
— Adam Pfeifer (@aPfeiferFF) November 10, 2014
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Even if he does not reach 100 rushing yards, Bell will still be a major part of the offense and will get back over 100 all-purpose yards. However, most of the offensive focus will go to Bryant and Antonio Brown.
Steelers Win a Low-Scoring Game
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The Steelers have had an interesting season so far. Against teams with winning records, they are 3-2 and scored an average of 28.0 points while allowing 28.2 points. By comparison, they have the same 3-2 record against teams with losing records, but have had an average score of 25.6 to 19.6.
Against the lesser teams in the NFL, the Steelers have not come out as strong on offense, but they have performed better defensively. When watching their game plan—particularly on offense—it appears as though Haley takes a more conservative approach against worse teams.
Rather than dictate the tempo of the game and attack an opponent’s weakness, they play conservatively and wait for their opponent to make a mistake. As a result, the games have been much closer than anticipated with two bad losses on the schedule.
Playing against a rookie quarterback, the Steelers will come out on top, but it will not be in dominating form. Tennessee’s defense will prevent an offensive explosion, and Mettenberger will make some surprise plays with his arm to keep this game closer than expected.
Steelers 27, Titans 20
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com and all roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
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