OKC Thunder Dangerously Retesting History Without Reggie Jackson Extension
History is repeating itself in Oklahoma City.
Will the Thunder do anything to stop it?
Fourth-year point guard Reggie Jackson—who is currently sidelined with a sore ankle—is eligible for a contract extension. If the Thunder do not sign him to one by the Oct. 31 deadline, he will enter restricted free agency this coming summer.
They're apparently opting for that latter scenario.
"The clock continues to tick toward Friday’s deadline for the Thunder to come to terms on a contract extension for guard Reggie Jackson," writes The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry. "But as the deadline nears, a deal appears unlikely to get done and talks will have to resume next summer when Jackson becomes a restricted free agent."
Sound eerily familiar?
Back in October of 2010, the Thunder didn't sign Jeff Green to a contract extension. Then, in February 2011, months before he hit restricted free agency, they traded him to the Boston Celtics.
James Harden didn't even last months. When it became clear he wouldn't accept the Thunder's below-max extension, he was traded to the Houston Rockets ahead of the 2012-13 season.
This doesn't mean Jackson will be traded before 2014-15 is out, nor does it mean his future lies outside Oklahoma City.
General manager Sam Presti has said the Thunder plan on keeping him, after all, per ESPN.com's Royce Young:
"We don't look at [Jackson] as anything other than a core member. We want to invest in Reggie. There's not a lack of clarity in that regard. Figuring out how best we do that is my job. And I'm going to do everything I can because I believe that he's a great example of a lot of things that we try to do here. He was drafted, he's been developed by our coaches and our support staff and the next step is to keep him with us for a long time.
"
Presti also said something similar about Green, and we know the team tried to retain Harden. Look how those conflicts were resolved. Point being: Even the best of intentions are subject to abrupt changes. This situation is no different.
Permitting Jackson to reach restricted free agency allows him to field other offers. Though the Thunder will have the ability to match any sheets he signs, they're notoriously stingy (see: Harden trade, Kevin Martin's departure, etc.).
With Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka set to earn nearly $49.3 million combined next season, there's no guarantee they match any offer Jackson receives. If his payday is deemed too lucrative, they could move on, just like they've done in the past.
And there's a strong chance Jackson is headed for a lucrative payday.
Assuming his latest ankle injury doesn't turn into a recurring, campaign-crushing issue, Jackson will look to build off a breakout 2013-14 crusade, during which he averaged 13.1 points, 4.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 28.5 minutes per game.
Only one other qualified player reached those benchmarks while also logging under 30 minutes a night: Tyreke Evans, and he's in the middle of a four-year, $44 million contract with the New Orleans Pelicans
Consider, too, that Jackson registered the sixth-lowest usage rate (22.6) of the 30 players who averaged at least 13 points and four assists. He's put himself in fairly exclusive company while demanding fewer touches, which speaks to his potential in a high-profile role—the one he'll assume until Durant returns from his Jones fracture.
That alone will be enough to catch the attention of at least a few teams in the market for scoring and playmaking. The projected salary-cap explosion following the NBA's new national television deal with ESPN and Turner Sports should only increase the interest Jackson garners as well.
"The league right now projects a jump to $66.5 million for 2015-16, a modest rise pegged to the final year of that modest $930 million TV deal," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe. "If the new TV deal kicks in for the 2016-17 season just shy of $2 billion, the cap could exceed that same $14 million leap, all the way to around $80-plus million, in a single year."
Impending 2015 unrestricted free agents could look to position themselves for free agency in 2016, when player salaries are expected to erupt. While that poses an intriguing dilemma for stars such as Kevin Love and Goran Dragic, among so many others, it promises opportunity for younger, less established players like Jackson.
Teams won't stop searching for talent just because of the anticipated cap boom, and if there are scores of players who either avoid free agency or sign short, option-overloaded deals, the value of those willing to ink long-term pacts skyrockets.
How much—again, assuming health and sustained production—is Jackson worth on the open market? Could he net four years and $48 million like Kyle Lowry and Kemba Walker?
Is there a chance he could get more?
Never say never.
Jackson may hold more value outside Oklahoma City. To the Thunder, he's a fourth option when they're at full strength, behind Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka. Like Harden, he has the potential to do more with additional touches.
Take last season's averages of 13.1 points and 4.1 assists.
Roughly 22.6 percent of the Thunder's offensive sets ran through him while he was on floor. If we increased that number to, say, 27.1—Evans' usage rate from 2013-14—while using Jackson's numbers from last year as our baseline, his averages would jump to 15.7 points and 4.9 assists.
Extrapolate those benchmarks over 36 minutes—using Jackson's 28.5 minutes per game in 2013-14 as our touchstone—and Jackson is at 19.8 points and 6.2 assists per 36 minutes of play. Only nine players mustered those per-36-minute benchmarks last season: Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, John Wall, Isaiah Thomas and Dragic, all of whom had higher usage rates than Jackson.
Prorating production based on more involvement—like we just did—is dangerous, since there's usually a negative correlation between efficiency and usage rate. But it's necessary guesswork when trying to evaluate what Jackson's potential is while playing a bigger role. His ceiling could be lower or, equally likely, it could be higher.
This, along with the rising cap, puts the Thunder in a sticky situation, one which Daily Thunder's Steve Pierce unpacked further:
"So Jackson will undoubtedly opt to test the waters next summer and will almost certainly receive a max offer from some owner flushed with a bunch of new TV cash and looking for a starting point guard. This offer could realistically come under a newly expanded cap, which would make Jackson’s contract worth much more than players who signed max deals this year. As he will be a restricted free agent, Oklahoma City will have a chance to match any offer Reggie receives — but again, given the looming payouts to the Thunder’s core, Presti would likely opt against doing so, clearing Jackson to continue his career elsewhere and leaving OKC with a gaping hole in their roster.
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Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka are all slated for free agency in either 2016 or 2017. If the Thunder want to keep one, two or all three of them, it will cost serious coin. They'll also have to worry about Steven Adams' extension by that point. He'll be eligible for his come summer 2017, one year after Durant's free agency, when Westbrook and Ibaka are both available.
At this moment there's no telling if the Thunder will be able and willing to keep their current core intact. It all starts with Jackson, and the stakes are high.
How will Durant react if the Thunder let another valuable player head elsewhere? Will it impact his thought process two summers from now? How will Westbrook and Ibaka feel when they hit the open market?
Letting Jackson go won't necessarily hurt the Thunder with Durant, Westbrook or Ibaka, but retaining him is the only way to ensure it can't. That, at least right now, is one thing they don't appear ready or willing to do. And that means this predicament will drag into this summer, when Jackson is a restricted free agent entertaining offers Oklahoma City may or may not match.
"Yeah. I definitely factor in all those things," Jackson told Mayberry of Gordon Hayward's and Chandler Parsons' offseason contracts. "Young players getting paid."
Soon enough, Jackson himself will get paid. It could be Oklahoma City paying him, it could be another team. But if the Thunder's past forays into these dangerous, dollars-dependent waters offer a window into what lies ahead, this season—or even next summer—isn't about deciding whether or not to keep him.
It's about finding his replacement.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference. Salary and contract information via ShamSports.
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