Oakland Raiders Can't Give Derek Carr a Pass for Offensive Struggles
Quarterback Derek Carr is not the problem with the Oakland Raiders in 2014. In fact, he’s one of the few players the 0-7 Raiders can build around, but that actually creates a different issue for the franchise.
The Raiders have to evaluate Carr without making his supporting cast the scapegoat for all of his problems. This is true now, and should continue to be true through next season no matter what owner Mark Davis decides to do with the front office and coaching staff.
The one thing the Raiders can’t afford to do is give Carr a pass for the struggles of the offense. If Carr were a good NFL quarterback right now, the Raiders wouldn’t be 31st in points and yards per game even with a terrible supporting cast.
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Carr is growing and has undeniable talent, but he’s still very much a work in progress. The Raiders can look to a similar situation in St. Louis over the past five years to see how sticking with potential over production can be dangerous even if there are clear roster-talent issues in play.
The Rams used the No. 1 overall pick on Sam Bradford in 2011, and after a 2-14 season in his second year, they brought in a new general manager and head coach. The circumstances could be similar in Oakland this year.
| Sam Bradford 2010 | 7—9 | 219.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.73 |
| Sam Bradford 2011 | 1—9 | 216.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 4.49 |
| Sam Bradford 2010-2011 | 8—18 | 218.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 4.64 |
| Sam Bradford 2012-2013 | 10—12—1 | 234.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 5.79 |
| Derek Carr 2014 | 0—7 | 216.7 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 5.59 |
The Rams had the rights to the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft and traded it for a bounty of draft picks so the Washington Redskins could land Robert Griffin III. It was a nice idea, but the Rams would probably rather have Griffin III right now than what they got in return.
According to Pro Football Talk, the Rams netted offensive lineman Greg Robinson, linebacker Alex Ogletree, wide receiver Stedman Bailey, running back Zac Stacy, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, defensive tackle Michael Brockers, running back Isaiah Pead and offensive guard Rokevious Watkins with the picks they received from Washington.
Pead and Watkins aren’t on the roster, Stacy has fallen out of favor and Bailey has four receptions this season in five games. Ogletree is the worst 4-3 outside linebacker in football by a wide margin, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Robinson was the No. 2 overall pick this year, but he didn’t start the first seven games. Neither Brockers nor Jenkins has been great enough to justify the trade.
The Raiders will undoubtedly have a top draft pick and have a chance to select NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller’s No. 1 overall player in quarterback Marcus Mariota of Oregon. The Raiders could also consider Florida State’s Jameis Winston or UCLA’s Brett Hundley—Miller’s fifth- and sixth-ranked players, respectively.
It's unlikely the Raiders would go this route, but they need to keep the option on the table. Otherwise, Carr is getting a free pass. If there is one thing the Raiders need, it’s an infusion of young talent, but trading away the right to draft a top quarterback talent merits careful examination—especially if one of them is a special player.
That means evaluating Carr’s performance and trying to isolate what has to do with him and what has to do with the talent around him.
Getting Help
There’s a misconception that Carr is getting no help. At times, this is true, but he’s also received some support from his teammates.
One area where this is particularly true is in pass protection. The Raiders are currently the fourth-ranked team in pass-blocking, according to Pro Football Focus.
Only the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints have allowed fewer sacks per attempt than the Raiders. Prior to giving up four sacks Sunday, the Raiders were leading the league in sacks allowed.
Carr’s receivers have also bailed him out on numerous occasions. On Sunday, Andre Holmes, Kenbrell Thompkins and Mychal Rivera all helped Carr more than they hurt him. James Jones has been Carr’s favorite target and has made several nice adjustments to less-than-perfect Carr passes this season.
Oakland’s receivers, tight ends and running backs also haven’t dropped an unusually high percentage of passes on the season. The Raiders are 17th in the league, per Pro Football Focus data, with a drop percentage just a hair north of six percent. League average is 5.5 percent.
There’s also little evidence to suggest that drops negatively affect an offense in a profound way. For every drop, there is usually a great catch. Drop rate doesn’t have a strong correlation to any of the traditional passing metrics such as yards, touchdowns, passer rating or yards per attempt this year.
The standard deviation on drop rate among qualified quarterbacks is just 1.42 percent, which is about three drops on the season per quarterback. Over 74 percent (20) of the 27 quarterbacks fell within one standard deviation of the average, and Philip Rivers is just three attempts without a drop from falling into the range.
Untimely drops can certainly hurt, but for the most part, the Raiders are within the acceptable range. Carr is actually the sixth-closest of the qualified quarterbacks to the average drop rate.
Not Getting Help
A rookie quarterback has three best friends—a productive running game, a playmaker in the passing game and a savvy offensive coordinator. The Raiders have none of these things.
The Raiders are on pace for just 1,113 rushing yards. Only three teams in the history of the league have rushed for fewer in a 16-game season—the 2000 Cleveland Browns (1,085 yards), the 2000 San Diego Chargers (1,062 yards) and the 1992 Indianapolis Colts (1,102 yards). The Browns and Chargers won a combined four games in 2000.
There are only nine teams with 487 rushing yards or fewer through seven games. Eight of the nine teams were 2-5 or worse. The Raiders do have a higher per-carry average than all of them, but that could easily decline against a tough second-half schedule.
| OAK | 2014 | 1 | 6 | 487 | 3.7 |
| ARI | 2006 | 4 | 3 | 468 | 468 |
| PHI | 2005 | 1 | 6 | 424 | 424 |
| ATL | 1999 | 1 | 6 | 485 | 485 |
| WAS | 1994 | 2 | 5 | 479 | 479 |
| TAM | 1993 | 0 | 7 | 475 | 475 |
| IND | 1991 | 1 | 6 | 362 | 362 |
| DET | 1988 | 1 | 5 | 483 | 483 |
| HOU | 1971 | 2 | 5 | 486 | 486 |
| SD | 2000 | 1 | 15 | 1,062 | 3.2 |
| CLE | 2000 | 3 | 13 | 1,085 | 3.0 |
| IND | 1992 | 9 | 7 | 1,102 | 2.9 |
| OAK | 2014 | 0 | 7 | 1,113 (Pace) | 3.7 |
Starting running back Darren McFadden is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and 48.3 yards per game. Both are among the worst totals for a starting running back in the entire league. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry on 24 attempts.
McFadden has two issues, but the biggest one is a lack of a vision. McFadden leaves yards on the field far too often, and it’s hurting the team. Take this 2nd-and-3 example from the third quarter on Sunday.
Instead of following his blocking and creating a nice gain, McFadden bounced it outside for a loss of three yards. The Raiders did manage to convert on third down after this play, but plays like this are why they are converting just 37 percent of their third downs.
Oakland’s offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, but their ability to push the pile in the run game has been one of the biggest disappointments. Pro Football Focus has the Raiders 29th in the league.
Right guard Austin Howard has been a liability in the run game, and rookie left guard Gabe Jackson has been up and down. Guards are typically the key to the power scheme, so it makes sense why the Raiders are struggling to establish the ground game.
Sometimes an offense with a rookie quarterback can compensate for a bad running game by having an offensive playmaker. An elite receiver who can get separation and who gains yards after the catch is the ideal.
The Raiders don’t have such a receiver. Jones has 425 receiving yards to lead the team, and his 60.7 yards per game is 30th in the league, but he has also fumbled three times on the season. Andre Holmes makes the biggest plays, but he needs to develop more consistency.
Neither are catching many passes with opportunities after the catch, either. Even when the Raiders try to get the ball to Jones or Holmes on screen passes and pick plays, they can’t make defenders miss, the blocking is poor, or both.
It happened early in the third quarter when Carr hit Jones on the screen with plenty of room to operate. Jones simply didn’t have the burst to make anything of it, and the complete failure of blocking on the play certainly didn’t help. Holmes did make a nice move to get in the end zone late in the game, but it was way too little and way too late.
Then there’s the offensive coordinator, who decided it would be a good idea to throw on the Browns instead of run the ball. McFadden, despite his flaws, was averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the Browns and had just 12 carries. Meanwhile, Carr threw 54 passes when the game wasn't out of hand until late in the fourth quarter.
On a 3rd-and-1 in the first quarter, offensive coordinator Greg Olson called a pass play and no one got open short. At the start of the second quarter, Olson had another chance so he called a fullback dive that also fell short.
Then there’s the play where McFadden is supposed to throw a pass to Carr out of the Wildcat formation on the first drive. McFadden had to elude pressure and nearly threw an interception. With no positive yardage gained, the offense wasn’t able to get back on schedule.
Olson isn't doing his young quarterback any favors with his play-calling. The play designs aren't the problem and the players have to do a better job executing, but he needs to put them in the best position to succeed.
Helping Himself
Carr is responsible for the offensive struggles of his team just as any quarterback would be. On many occasions, Carr has locked onto his targets and missed a wide-open man.
Carr tends to trust Jones to such an extent that he’s willing to throw the ball to him even when a defensive back blankets him. We saw this against the Browns Sunday on a 3rd-and-5 with two minutes to play in the first half.
Carr gets the matchup he likes and unloads a deep pass for Jones that he can’t get instead of hitting Thompkins on the underneath crosser for the first down. The Raiders had to settle for a field goal.
It happened again later in the game on 1st-and-10, down 16-6 with 13:09 left to play. Carr dropped back and unfurled a midrange pass to Holmes that he caught in acrobatic fashion on the sideline, but he also pushed off the defensive back and drew the flag.
Had Carr been less hasty, he would have seen fullback Marcel Reece dragging across the middle of the field wide open. A couple of plays later, the Raiders punted because of Carr’s inability to take the yards the defense was giving him.
Other notable issues for Carr include his tendency to throw off his back foot under pressure and across his body, poor placement on throws such as a slant to Jones on 3rd-and-5 in the fourth quarter (despite a sloppy route) and two penalties for delay of game.
Carr has made progress in many areas, but he still has plenty to work on. He now steps up in the pocket with more frequency, but he needs to be more consistent. Carr makes the right reads more often than he did a month ago, but he still needs to give himself an extra tick of time to find the open man.
Honest evaluation of Carr is going to be vital over the final nine games if the Raiders want to avoid making mistakes when they get around to rebuilding the team.
Unless otherwise specified, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
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