Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears: Complete Week 7 Preview for Miami
In October, you only think of must-win games in the context of baseball, but for the 2-3 Miami Dolphins, their trip up north to the Windy City to take on the 3-3 Chicago Bears is taking on the feeling of a must-win contest (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Miami is going to a place it last played in back in 2006, when a Joey Harrington-led Dolphins defeated the eventual NFC champion Bears 31-13. Eight years later, as you might expect, both teams couldn't be any more different.
For the Bears, they're now reliant on a high-powered offense led by quarterback Jay Cutler that features two wide receivers who are absolute matchup nightmares for the Dolphins in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.
To complement Chicago's aerial attack is Matt Forte, a player who's easily a prototype for what you want in a running back.
The matchup to watch is between the Bears receivers and the Dolphins secondary, which offers a contrast in size. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan acknowledged the challenge when talking to Andrew Abramson of The Palm Beach Post:
"We're 5'10". We have to figure out in a hurry. ... Add a combination of size and speed, and you have a hell of a recipe. They’ve got a little bit of both. … And Jay Cutler throws it as good as anyone.”
Miami's defense doesn't match up well with the Bears offense, but on the offensive side of the ball, the Dolphins have a few favorable matchups that can be exploited, permitting the Dolphins can take care of the ball and control the line of scrimmage.
A win in Chicago moves the Dolphins back up to .500, with a game against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars coming up in Week 8 before their schedule hits rougher terrain in the month of November. This makes this week's game a must-win, even if that doesn't seem to be the case.
Miami Dolphins' Week 6 Recap
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Poor execution, puzzling decisions and the horrific mixture of both are the reasons why Miami lost in the final seconds to the Green Bay Packers.
The poor execution started off on offense in the first half, when Miami couldn't take advantage of great field position in its first two drives, managing to only score three combined points on two drives that started at the 50-yard line and the Green Bay 16. You can pin that on quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who turned in a first half to forget where he threw two interceptions.
Miami's defense kept the Dolphins in the game in the first half, resulting in Green Bay only leading 10-3 going into halftime. The fireworks started in the second half for Miami's offense, as Tannehill was locked in and in rhythm throughout the half, leading to a Miami advantage of 24-20 with four minutes to go.
A great four-minute offense would've been the perfect recipe in that situation, but the offensive line instead buckled while Miami's coaches made some puzzling decisions.
The Dolphins were able to get one first down on the drive, but in the next series of downs, they outsmarted themselves with the decision-making while shooting themselves in the feet afterward.
With 3:05 left and Green Bay out of timeouts, the Dolphins decided to pass the ball on 2nd-and-9 from their own 36-yard line. A run play, even one for no gain, would've taken the Dolphins close to the two-minute warning, but instead the clock stopped on an incomplete pass from Tannehill to Charles Clay.
After that, facing 3rd-and-9 with 3:01 left, the Dolphins called a timeout, only to set up a one-yard run by Knowshon Moreno.
The more prudent thing to do would've been to just run the ball on both plays. Doing that takes a combined 80 seconds off the clock, which would've passed the two-minute warning, giving the Packers less time to march down the field by the time they got the ball back.
Another capital idea would've been to run on second down, then attempt a pass on third to get what would've been a game-sealing first down.
One play not talked about at the end was the punt from Brandon Fields, who attempted to kick it high to maximize the hang time in order to allow Miami's punt-coverage team to surround Green Bay's return man.
That plan backfired, as the punt-coverage unit allowed a 17-yard return for the Packers to Green Bay's own 40-yard line.
Yes, Miami's punt coverage failed on the play. However, Fields might've been better-served going for distance, even if it meant a touchback. That backs Green Bay up an additional 20 yards.
Miami's timeout usage at the end was also frustrating. In addition to its timeout prior to the punt (and prior to the two-minute warning), it called another time out with Green Bay facing a fourth-down situation with 10 yards to go.
The timeout helped Green Bay a lot more than it could've helped Miami, as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were able to collect themselves, leading to Rodgers finding Jordy Nelson for 18 yards.
After that, the game is a blur of mistakes from the players' side. Cortland Finnegan knocking Davante Adams out of bounds instead of tackling him in bounds on Rodgers' fake-spike play was one mistake, as was Philip Wheeler doing whatever he was attempting to do while covering Andrew Quarless during what was the game-winning touchdown.
The Dolphins had victory in their hands but gave it to the Packers however they could, and it was a full group effort from both the coaching staff and the players.
News and Notes
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Marshall Claims Miami Was "A Quarterback Away" During His Tenure with the Dolphins
The juiciest storyline about this game revolves around Brandon Marshall, who played for the Miami Dolphins from 2010-12 and had a tumultuous time with the team.
Per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald, when asked what could've been different about his time with the Dolphins, Marshall answered it as matter-of-fact as he could, stating: “On the football field, I think that we were a quarterback away from having a team."
I can't find anything disagreeable about Marshall's statement. I'm firm in the belief that in terms of talent, the 2010 and 2011 Miami Dolphins were a smidge better than the current Dolphins on the field; at the very least, they were a lot better on defense.
The one thing missing was a quarterback, as starter Chad Henne was inconsistent enough to warrant that Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade at the position.
Damien Williams Believe Moreno Isn't a "Big Loss"
On Tuesday, the Dolphins announced that Knowshon Moreno would miss the remainder of the season with an ACL injury.
This could be looked at as a big blow to Miami's offense, as Moreno is the Dolphins' best overall running back. However, rookie Damien Williams doesn't think the blow will be as big as others think, per Hal Habib of The Palm Beach Post:
"I won’t say it’s a big loss just because we have other guys who can fill in what he’s been doing. But what he brings to the table as a character and how he is on the field, that’s going to be well-missed, because he’s a fired-up kind of person. He gets you pumped up to go and it’s fun to watch him run, but as far as a disappointment to a loss, it’s not really a loss. But he’s a great person. He’s going to be missed.
"
Williams does bring up a good point: The Dolphins have been without Moreno for the majority of every game this season except Week 1 against New England.
Despite this, Miami is ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per game, while Lamar Miller is running for an average of 5.2 yards per carry.
Continuing this trend will be a challenge for Miller, but it's one that he's more than capable of doing. The other running backs will have to fill in when needed, though, including Williams himself and Daniel Thomas.
Pouncey Making a Tough Adjustment to Guard
It's only been one game, but Dolphins offensive lineman Mike Pouncey is having a tougher time at guard than he originally anticipated.
The Pro Football Focus grades (subscription required) back this up, as he graded out at 8.2 at center last season compared to his -1.0 at guard in his first game this season. Here are the words from Pouncey himself, per Andrew Abramson of The Palm Beach Post:
“I played guard four years ago in college. It’s different in the NFL. Guys are a lot different, a lot faster. When you get in the game, it’s a reality check. It’s way different than in college.”
Being away from a position can cause some rustiness, and if this is the Mike Pouncey we're seeing while he's having the expected pains from adjusting back to his old position, I'm really excited to see what happens once he fully adjusts to playing guard.
Pouncey would later add, per Abramson: “Each week, I'm just going out there preparing to play guard. If my position changes, then I’m all for it.”
No matter what happens, as long as Pouncey is playing on the Dolphins offensive line, I'm all for it. He will get better at guard as the season rolls along, and compared to the other options at the position, I'd take my chances with Pouncey at guard and Samson Satele at center for the rest of the season.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
| Brandon Gibson | Wide Receiver | Hamstring | Probable |
| John Denney | Long Snapper | Knee | Probable |
| Koa Misi | Linebacker | Ankle | Probable |
| Cortland Finnegan | Cornerback | Neck | Probable |
| Branden Albert | Left Tackle | Elbow | Probable |
| Shelley Smith | Guard | Knee | Probable |
| Lamar Miller | Running Back | Knee | Probable |
| Jimmy Wilson | Safety | Hamstring | Doubtful |
| Samson Satele | Center | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Dallas Thomas | Guard | Shoulder | Probable |
| Charles Clay | Tight End | Knee | Probable |
| Ryan Tannehill | Quarterback | Ankle | Probable |
| Philip Wheeler | Linebacker | Shoulder | Probable |
| Brian Hartline | Wide Receiver | Finger | Probable |
Injury report courtesy of MiamiDolphins.com as of 10/16/2014; it will be updated as more information is released.
The injury to look at is that of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but as he's fully participated in practice, there doesn't seem to be too much concern.
Jimmy Wilson not practicing is disconcerting considering that the secondary will need all the help possible on Sunday. While Louis Delmas is on the injury list, he is participating fully in practice, which is great news.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Brent Grimes vs. Brandon Marshall
Brent Grimes would rather forget his outing against Green Bay, but he will face a tougher test against Brandon Marshall this week.
While many (including yours truly) believe that this is a mismatch, Marshall doesn't think so, per Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times:
“If I could start a team, if I was a general manager, the two corners I would start with is Grimes and [Bears cornerback] Kyle Fuller. There’s no mismatch out there. This is probably going to be the best secondary we face all year.”
High praise from one of the top receivers in the league.
It's interesting to note that Marshall and Grimes haven't matched up with one another at all during the NFL's regular season. The picture above is from their preseason matchup in 2010, when Grimes was a Falcon and Marshall was a Dolphin.
Grimes is the underdog due to his size, but he certainly has the skill to keep up with Marshall. The question is, will it be enough?
Ryan Tannehill vs. Jay Cutler
Normally I don't go with quarterback vs. quarterback as a matchup to watch, mainly because quarterbacks simply don't match up with one another on the field.
However, I see many similarities with both players. Cutler is the better of the two, yet he also represents Tannehill's ceiling.
Cutler is more likely to deliver the big play—which is easier with Marshall and Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver—but with both players, their teams hinge on whether they can keep turnovers at a minimum.
Both players have a habit of forcing bad throws, and the quarterback who forces the least will have a better shot at pulling off the victory come Sunday.
Miami's Linebackers vs. Matt Forte
While the Bears have Marshall and Jeffery as targets, the biggest potential Dolphin-killer on Sunday will be running back Matt Forte.
Forte is the type of back who routinely kills Miami, as he's quick and elusive when he can get into space, and he finds a way to do it often.
He also has an offense designed to do just that, and while he'll have his issues running the ball on Sunday against Miami's front four, the passing game will be a different story.
Can Miami's linebackers contain Forte? This has been an issue for the Dolphins in the last two seasons, as big plays are more likely to come from the running backs out of the backfield than just about any other position.
Cutler will target Forte plenty—Forte actually leads the Bears in pass targets with 55 and leads the team in receptions with 46. Miami's linebackers have to account for Forte at all times when on the field.
X-factor: Walt Aikens
The primary matchup in the secondary will be between Marshall and Grimes, but the Dolphins might have to utilize rookie and bit-player Walt Aikens to counter Chicago's size at wide receiver.
You could very well see Aikens take some snaps at safety, allowing him to cover tight end Martellus Bennett, but he's also available to play cornerback, covering either Marshall or Jeffery.
Because of this, Aikens is our X-factor of the game. If he can keep whomever he's covering quiet while in the game (assuming he plays, which he should), Miami will have a better chance at coming out victorious.
Prediction
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Earlier this week, I made some of my bold predictions, so will I be ready to make the boldest prediction of all?
The answer to that is a flat "no."
Yes, I see this game being a shootout with both teams scoring in the 30s. For the Dolphins, it will be their third game in the 30s (they're 2-0 this season when they hit that mark), and for the Bears, it will be their first.
Yes, Lamar Miller will run for a career high in yards. His current career high is 108, which he did against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
Yes, Ryan Tannehill will do a better job of holding on to the football than Jay Cutler, and a special teams play will decide the outcome of the game.
The other two predictions made earlier this week were addressed in earlier slides of this piece.
As for the boldest predictions, here's why I'm saying Miami won't win in Chicago.
Marc Trestman vs. Joe Philbin.
The advantage here goes to Trestman, and it's not even close. The game itself will be close, and a few key decisions by each coaching staff will make a world of difference in regards to who wins and who loses.
Trestman thus far seems a bit more trustworthy than Philbin, and it does help that he has the more talented team.
I won't go so far to say that Miami will collapse like it did last week—the coaching issues might actually come to a head earlier in the game than you think—but a bad decision will wind up costing Miami in the end.
You can't afford to make bad decisions in the NFL, especially not on the road against a team like the Bears, who are stronger than their 3-3 record indicates.
Prediction: Bears 34, Dolphins 30
Statistics courtesy of NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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