7 Bold Predictions for Miami Dolphins Week 7 Matchup
The Miami Dolphins are 2-3 and face a crucial game against the 3-3 Chicago Bears this Sunday.
This game on the surface seems to be one of contrasting styles and philosophies, as the Dolphins appear to be the more conservative team on both offense and defense, while the Bears are much more aggressive on both sides of the ball.
The matchups in this game don't favor Miami very much, as their out-sized secondary will have to contend with former Dolphin Brandon Marshall as well as third-year player Alshon Jeffery, which should be a formidable challenge for the diminutive-by-comparison Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan.
Meanwhile, Matt Forte is the type of back that has killed Miami in the past, as he's a shifty quick back who can make plays on the open field, whereas the Dolphins tend to have better luck against running backs who are more straight ahead in their running.
However, the teams are much more similar than you think. Both run a 4-3 defense that has had its issues this season, and both offenses attempt to be more balanced but wind up relying more on their passing game.
With all of these factors in mind, here are some bold predictions for this Sunday's game between the Dolphins and the Bears.
7. Walt Aikens Will Be Used in Miami's Coverage of Chicago's Receivers
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Dolphins rookie Walt Aikens hasn't been seen much this season despite the fact that he's played in all five of Miami's contests thus far.
Usually Aikens can be seen on special teams, only playing on defense when Miami absolutely needs him. He's still behind Jamar Taylor, Will Davis, Jimmy Wilson and Cortland Finnegan on Miami's depth chart, which is why he's used with the frequency of a parka in South Florida.
That might have to change on Sunday, as the Dolphins will need to use Aikens for something that he brings to the table that none of Miami's other corners bring, and the one thing that cannot be taught—his 6'1", 205-pound frame.
In comparison to 6'4", 225-pound Brandon Marshall or 6'4" 230-pound Alshon Jeffery, Aikens will still look a bit smaller, but his size can match up better with both receivers than either of Miami's corners could.
In his limited role so far this season, Aikens has produced an interception as well as three tackles, with most of that coming against the Oakland Raiders in Week 4. He will at least have to contain either Jeffery or Marshall on Sunday, and at least in terms of size, he's better equipped to do that than the other players in the secondary.
Will Miami pull the trigger and put him in? I'd say yes, but one thing to keep in mind is once he's in there, quarterback Jay Cutler will pick on the rookie, so he will have to make an impact from the second he enters the game.
6. Matt Forte Will Do More Damage in the Passing Game Than in the Run Game
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The book on beating the Dolphins defense has been around for the last two seasons and remains the same: Take what they give you (which is a lot) and attempt to turn small plays into big plays.
The Dolphins can stop the run, but usually the team gets beaten by running backs who are quick and shifty, especially if you get them the ball in space.
Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman has the type of back that has been Miami's bugaboo the last three seasons in Matt Forte, but he won't do as much damage running the ball as you'd think.
Catching passes out of the backfield is a different story.
All season long, Forte has been Chicago's best pass-catcher, as he has 46 receptions and has been targeted 55 times, averaging 67 yards per game out of the backfield.
What's surprising is he only has one touchdown reception, a 10-yard pass in Week 5 against Carolina, but his longest reception of the season went for 56 yards in the same game.
The Dolphins have had a bad habit in recent years of allowing a running back to catch a pass and run it that far in the last two years, and unfortunately it's very likely that they will. Overall, I see Forte having his best afternoon as a receiver coming on Sunday, but that doesn't mean it will be the best day for Jay Cutler.
5. Jay Cutler Will Throw at Least Two Interceptions
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So far in 2014, Jay Cutler has six interceptions.
Average it out and it's one interception per day, but in three of his games, he didn't throw an interception. In a related story, the Bears are 3-0 in those games, 0-3 when Cutler threw a pick.
On the other side, the Dolphins have three interceptions for the entire year, all coming against the Raiders. Why the secondary is struggling to pick off passes is another story for another article, but the fact that Jay Cutler is involved means there's at least more of a chance at forcing these key turnovers.
I'm willing to be really bold in predicting this: The Dolphins will pick off Cutler at least two times.
These interceptions won't come so much from great coverage on Jeffery and Marshall, but rather Cutler failing to hit the right spot. In four of his six games this season, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Cutler in the negatives, due in part to the fact that he's rarely inaccurate, but when he is, he's very inaccurate on the pass.
This is mainly due to how well Cutler performs when there's pressure in the backfield, which isn't very good. Cutler has been sacked 14 times this season, and most of his interceptions have come while under heavy pressure.
This plays into how the Dolphins should play the pass against Chicago, by adopting Green Bay's philosophy of sending the house at him. This strategy has worked well for the Packers against the Dolphins, something that head coach Joe Philbin should be well aware of while also making defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle aware of it. This is how you play the Bears on defense, and likely be how Miami approaches this game.
If that happens, the turnovers will come.
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4. Ryan Tannehill Will Have a Day with No Turnovers
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This will shock many Dolphins fans, but I don't think Ryan Tannehill is that different from Jay Cutler.
Far from it; Cutler is actually a better version of Tannehill. He represents the ceiling Tannehill could possibly attain as well.
I actually don't trust Cutler that much. In fact, part of the reason he's had success in Chicago has been the fact that he has a good coach for dealing with quarterbacks behind him in Marc Trestman, great receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and a great running back in Matt Forte.
If you ask me, that's the difference between the two players. Swap them out, and I don't think you find much of a difference in results with the two teams. If anything, the patience would be much thinner with Cutler since he is the older player, whereas Tannehill in Chicago would likely be lauded more for his potential due to his young age.
After seeing me write that, you'd expect me to say that Cutler would have the better day than Tannehill, but that's not the case that I see with this game. Instead, I see Tannehill having a better game, not so much statistically, but in terms of turnovers.
Tannehill wont' turn the ball over on Sunday. This despite the fact that Chicago's defense, while soft at times, can create turnovers. They've intercepted eight passes so far this season and have committed 15 sacks.
They've also forced eight fumbles this year, recovering seven of them. For all of the faults on defense in Chicago (and there are many), forcing turnovers isn't one of them.
Despite that, Tannehill will take care of the ball well on Sunday due in part to a more conservative Dolphins' game plan, and better decision-making from Tannehill, like what we saw in the second half of his game against Green Bay on Sunday.
That decision-making should carry over into this week, and will have to against an aggressive defense that can be exploited, provided you don't give them any chances to create a big turnover.
3. Lamar Miller Will Rush for a Career High
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On Tuesday, Dolphins running back Knowshon Moreno was placed on injured reserve with an ACL injury (per Chris Perkins of The Sun-Sentinel).
The injury does greatly hamper Miami's ground game going forward, but not as much as you would think, as Lamar Miller has been excellent this year, running for 330 yards on 63 carries for an average of 5.2 yards per carry, leading a Dolphins run game which is currently ranked sixth in the league in yards per game.
Miller's career high came earlier this season against Kansas City, when he ran for 108 yards on 15 carries.
Expect the carries to go up against Chicago, and expect Miller to continue playing well.
Chicago's run defense is a top-10 run defense unit, but they've allowed an average of 103.7 yards per game.
No running back has run for 100 yards against the Bears defense this season, but if there's a game to change it, it's this one. Miami will have to remain committed to the run game in order to do it, and Tannehill will have to keep the Bears defense honest in the air.
Both of those things can, and will, be done.
2. Special Teams Will Determine the Game
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These two teams aren't special teams juggernauts.
The Bears of old would scare you on every kick and punt return with the threat of Devin Hester. Those days are gone, with Hester down south in Atlanta. It is now safe to kick it or punt it to the return man in the Windy City, as the Bears are averaging 5.7 yards per return on punts and 19.8 yards per return on kickoffs.
Chicago still has Robbie Gould, though, and Gould has done well this season, making eight of nine field goals.
On the Dolphins side you have a special teams unit that has created big plays (two blocked punts and a kickoff return of 74 yards by Jarvis Landry, who is second in the league in return yards), and like Gould, Caleb Sturgis has only missed one field goal all season.
However, the unit has struggled at times to contain kickoff and punt returns.
One punt return of 17 yards that was allowed actually helped to kick-start Green Bay's game-winning drive on Sunday, as it gave Aaron Rodgers the ball back at the Packers 40-yard line.
Could such a play, or any other special teams play swing the outcome of the game? My money is on that being the case.
1. Both Teams Will Score 30-Plus Points
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Here's how similar these two teams really are.
Chicago has scored 23.8 points per game.
Miami has scored an average of 24 points per game.
If I were to tell you that only one of these teams have broken 30 this season, you'd look at Chicago's roster, then look at Miami's roster, then determine that that team was Chicago.
You'd be wrong. Chicago has yet to break the 30-point boundary this season, with their highest-scoring game coming in a 28-20 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2.
Miami has broken 30 twice this season, scoring 33 against the New England Patriots and 38 against the Oakland Raiders.
Both teams will break that 30-point mark on Sunday, however, in a game that will be as close as the odds are pointing out (Oddshark has the Dolphins listed as three-point underdogs).
The reason is the Bears offense is the type of offense you can beat Miami with, and they will have their success, but not without a couple of hiccups (see bold prediction No. 5).
Meanwhile, Miami's offense is the type of offense you can beat Chicago with, provided bold prediction No. 4 occurs as I say it does.
Put those two together and you will have a shootout in the Windy City, one reminiscent of that famous Monday-night game played between these two teams all those years ago.
Of course, I'm talking about the one from 1997 that was moved to Monday night from it's original due to the Marlins playing the Indians in Game 7 of the World Series the night before.
What, was there some other Monday night game between these two teams in the distant past I should know about?
Statistics courtesy of NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com
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