Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets: Breaking Down Detroit's Game Plan
The Detroit Lions hit the road in Week 4 after their big home win over NFC North rival Green Bay, heading to New York for a date with the Jets.
What: Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
When: 1 p.m. ET, Sunday
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Watch: FOX, Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston with the call
Both teams have already faced the Packers, with the Lions winning 19-7 at home a week after the Jets fell in Green Bay 31-24. That portends well for Detroit if you buy into the "If Team A beat Team B who beat Team C, therefore A beats C" speculative argument.
Historically these two are dead even. In 12 career matchups, each team has won six. The Jets have won the last three meetings, the most recent coming in a 2010 match where Braylon Edwards torched the Lions for a 74-yard touchdown reception.
Detroit's last win in the series was in 2000, which was also its last win against the Jets. Older fans might remember right guard Jeff Hartings pouncing on a James Stewart fumble into the end zone for the game-winning score in a 10-7 slugfest.
This game features of the best defenses in the young season.
| Run Yards | Pass Yards | Run Defense | Pass Defense | Turnover | |
| Lions | 25th | 6th | 2nd | 3rd | -2 |
| Jets | 2nd | 18th | 1st | 9th | -3 |
Put the Game in Geno's Hands
A quick look at the above chart shows how reliant the Jets are on running the ball. New York ranks fourth in rushing attempts per game, toting the rock over 32 times per game. By way of comparison the Lions rank 16th with just under 29 rushes on average, per Team Rankings.
There are two reasons why the Jets go for the "ground and pound" attack, as head coach Rex Ryan is fond of calling his offense.
First, they're darn good at it. New York averages 4.9 yards per carry, dwarfing Detroit's 3.0 figure. The Jets have a stable of runners with Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and even quarterback Geno Smith.
Ivory, Johnson and Smith all have at least 20 carries, though Ivory is clearly the most dangerous of the bunch. He picks up 5.7 yards per attempt, augmented by this 71-yard romp in New York's opener in Oakland.
The other big reason why the Jets run so much is Smith's erratic command of Marty Mornhinweg's offense. The second-year player has yet to earn his coach's trust as a passer—with good reason.
Smith and the Jets passing offense ranks 20th or worse in a host of statistical metrics (all courtesy Team Rankings):
- Completion Percentage—22nd
- Yards per Attempt—21st
- Sack Percentage—22nd
- Passer Rating—27th
This is in spite of the rather remarkable fact that none of their top three receivers has registered a dropped pass through three games, according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
One way the Lions can slow down the Jets running attack is to force the play to the left. D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a great left tackle in pass protection, but he's one of the least effective run blockers in the NFL. Left guard Brian Winters isn't much better.
As noted by Football Outsiders, the Jets are extremely right-handed as a running unit:
| Left End | Left Tackle | Middle | Right Tackle | Right End |
| 31st | 26th | 11th | 11th | 4th |
The key for the Lions is to make sure tackles and for the linebackers to stick to their gap responsibilities. Thus far, the Detroit front has been exceptional in this regard, though losing linebacker Stephen Tulloch creates some exposure which the Jets are sure to challenge.
It behooves defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to walk the safety on the left side of the defense (the offensive right side) closer to the line.
Last week against the Packers the game plan was to keep the plays in front and drop the safeties deep into coverage. This week, that left side safety is more important as a run stopper than providing coverage help.
Geno Smith is no Aaron Rodgers, not even on Rodgers' bad days like he had last week. Committing extra resources to the run will put the game on Smith's inconsistent right arm.
To reinforce the desire to make the Jets throw a lot, No. 1 wide receiver Eric Decker is questionable with a hamstring injury that forced him from Monday night's game. Per Darryl Slater at NJ.com, he did not practice on Wednesday, leaving his effectiveness a real question even if he suits up on Sunday.
Even more help could be on the way here, too. Starting safety James Ihedigbo practiced on Wednesday:
"S James Ihedigbo was a full participant in practice for the first time in over a month. Good sign he could play Sunday.
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) September 24, 2014"
Last year "Dig" was one of the best safeties in run defense. Pro Football Focus rated him second in the league while playing for the Baltimore Ravens. He has yet to play for Detroit due to a neck injury.
Rediscover the Screen
The Jets defense loves the blitz. The Ryan family is famous for its creativity and aggressiveness in bringing pressure from all sorts of angles. At times they blitz all three linebackers, sometimes even from the same side. Other times, they drop defensive tackles into coverage and blitz both safeties.
New York thrives on the unconventional. Witness this from Monday night's contest in Chicago:
"The Jets had 304 pound DT Leger Douzable covering a wide receiver down the field.... by design?
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) September 23, 2014"
These are the sorts of shenanigans Ryan deploys to try and throw opposing offenses off kilter. Detroit needs to make them pay when New York gets wild.
One of the best ways to conquer a blitz is judicious use of the screen pass. Chicago caught them in such a situation, and it nearly produced a touchdown.
It's 2nd-and-11 and the Bears are in the red zone. The Jets tightly cram all seven linemen and linebackers close to the line even though the Bears are in 11 personnel, with three receivers flanking to the right.
A blitz is coming, this much is obvious. The only question is, how many are going to rush? Jay Cutler and the Bears have a perfect foil drawn up for this bold blitz.
Running back Matt Forte slips unimpeded through the line as all seven players on the Jets' front rush towards Cutler. Nobody even thinks about him.
Cutler calmly backpedals a couple of steps and lobs a screen right over the oncoming marauders. It's almost like watching two teenagers playing "monkey in the middle" over a gullible 9-year-old.
Once Forte gets the ball, he has two blockers in front of him and only one man to beat.
Amazingly, cornerback Antonio Allen splits the blocking and gets a hand on Forte's foot. It trips him up just enough to prevent the touchdown.
Picture Reggie Bush, one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the league, getting that kind of room to operate. Allen would be hard-pressed to get so lucky once again.
Detroit has unexpectedly shied away from using the screen pass this season. With accomplished receivers like Bush and Joique Bell, breaking out the screen game once again would be a great way to exploit the Jets' hyper-aggressiveness against them.
It would also help ease the burden on the problematic right tackle position. LaAdrian Waddle did practice on Wednesday, per MLive, for the first time since injuring his calf in the opener. Yet even if he does start he figures to be limited.
Keeping the Jets off balance with a healthy diet of screens and quick slants right into the areas vacated by the blitzing defenders is a great way to aggressively counterpunch. One missed tackle, and it's a knockout blow.
Don't Rely on the Kicker
Even though the Nate Freese era has mercifully ended, it's premature to feel confident in the Lions' kicking game.
The new kicker is Alex Henery, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles. He was signed to replace the struggling seventh-round rookie, who was cut after converting just three of his seven field-goal attempts.
Henery was pretty effective in his Philly days:
"The #Lions plan to make a change at place kicker. They are signing veteran Alex Henery, who has a career field goal % of 86 (74 of 86).
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) September 22, 2014"
Even so, there are many factors at play here. It's a road game in a hostile environment. The game is outdoors, which shouldn't be an issue for Henery as the Eagles also play outdoors, but his workouts for Detroit were all indoors.
There's also a great deal of pressure to perform right away. Henery has no job security, other than perhaps his close friendship with Ndamukong Suh. He knows even one missed kick means it's back to the unemployed ranks.
One way to put Henery at ease would be to jump out to an early lead. The Jets have a rather dubious streak going when they fall behind:
"Since 2001, the Jets are winless (0-15) when ending the 1st quarter with a double-digit deficit. (via @ESPNStatsInfo)
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 23, 2014"
The Lions have been good in the first quarters of their three contests this year, posting a combined 21-7 scoring margin. New York trails 24-20 in the sum of its first quarters after posting a 14-3 deficit to Chicago.
As always, coming up with a positive turnover margin and avoiding mindless penalties are also keys to a Detroit victory. Notching a road win would go a long way toward building confidence and dispelling some of the lingering doubts many still hold about these Lions.
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