10 Predictions for the New York Jets 2014 Season
The New York Jets had a collectively unpredictable season in 2013, full of highs and lows—alternating between the two each week for the first 10 games of the season before they finally lost two games in a row and ultimately finished with an 8-8 record.
The Jets are a far different team from the last time we saw them. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, right tackle Austin Howard and wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill are all gone. In their place, the Jets have initiated a youth movement and made a few key free-agent signings in running back Chris Johnson, wide receiver Eric Decker and right tackle Breno Giacomini.
Over the past few years, the Jets have been stuck in mediocrity. Could this year be different? Here are some of my predictions for the Jets in 2014.
Geno Smith Will Be the Starting Quarterback for the Entire Season
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There was never any real quarterback competition in New York this year, despite what Rex Ryan and John Idzik may have told you.
Everyone in New York wants Geno Smith to be the starter. He had an up-and-down rookie year after falling to the second round, but those experiences should only help him grow in his second season. With a year's worth of knowledge of the Jets offense and an upgraded group of receivers that includes former Denver Broncos wideout Eric Decker and rookie tight end Jace Amaro, Smith is primed for improvement.
Smith looked much more comfortable this preseason and completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 268 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 91.5 passer rating. Preseason doesn't tell the whole story, but if it even tells part of the story, Smith should take a step forward in 2014.
Sheldon Richarson Will Finish the Season with 10 or More Sacks
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The Jets picked Sheldon Richardson with the 13th overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He justified the pick by winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
With one of the most talented defensive lines in the NFL, the Jets present a puzzling challenge for offensive lines trying to decide how to devote their resources to blocking the rush. Double-team one defender and you're left with a one-on-one somewhere else. In that sense, Richardson benefits from playing next to fellow first-round picks Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples as well as Damon Harrison, an undrafted gem.
Richardson could line up inside and outside, and get pressure either way. He notched only 3.5 sacks in 2013, but those numbers could go up with a year of NFL experience.
Eric Decker Will Have 1,000 or More Receiving Yards
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Eric Decker has put up over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. So why is this even a worthy prediction? Because he's no longer catching passes from Peyton Manning with the Denver Broncos, or running routes opposite Demaryius Thomas and next to Julius Thomas. Of course, anyone who follows the Jets already knows that, and has heard those facts stated over and over.
Even in a new setting, with a young quarterback and without the bevy of talent around him that he had in Denver, Decker should match the numbers he put up year after year with the Broncos. The Jets could be throwing the ball a bit more in 2014 than they did last year, when they ranked fifth in the league in rushing attempts.
Besides, Decker won't have to do it all on his own. The Jets have some underrated options in the passing game, with Jeremy Kerley in the slot and David Nelson on the opposite side. Decker figures to be a favorite target in the Jets offense this season, and that should lead to him getting plenty of opportunities with the ball in his hands.
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Chris Johnson Will Earn Fewer Than 1,000 Total Yards
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Compared to Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, Chris Johnson is a more dynamic threat for his speed in the open field. He is not, however, a better between-the-tackles running back than either Ivory or Powell. The Jets have run behind their center and guards with frequency. That may be due in part to their lack of a home run threat in the backfield, so Johnson adds a much-needed dynamic to the offense in that sense.
That being said, while there is no telling exactly how the Jets will distribute touches, it's safe to say they will distribute the touches to all three backs.
Consider this: Even when the Jets had the fifth-highest total in rushing attempts in 2013, neither Ivory (843 total yards) or Powell (969 yards) crossed into four-digit territory.
Jace Amaro Will Catch at Least 50 Passes
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Jace Amaro is not a true tight end in that he's not a dominant blocker. He has the frame to excel in that role, at 6'5" and 265 pounds, but he just hasn't mastered the craft yet.
A lack of blocking technique won't stop him from making an impact as a rookie. In his career at Texas Tech, Amaro spent most of his time lined up as a slot receiver rather than as an in-line tight end. The Jets could probably use him in a similar way, although he could move around a bit. Still, he will be at his most effective running routes over the middle, where he can use his quickness to separate from linebackers and his size to outmuscle defensive backs.
The Jets have a lot of options as far as catching passes over the middle, with Jeremy Kerley, Jeff Cumberland and Amaro all making their presence felt in that area. Still, tight ends accounted for 23.7 percent of the receptions last year, and Amaro could benefit from Smith's affection for the big guys in the middle. With Amaro in the mix to replace the departed Kellen Winslow, Cumberland can go back to his role as a jack-of-all-trades in the blocking and receiving game.
The Jets Defense Will Finish in the Top 10 in Yards Allowed
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The Jets defense ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed in each of Rex Ryan's first four years as head coach. They slipped out of the top 10 for the first time in the Ryan era last year, but missed by only one spot with the 11th-best overall defense in the league.
There are no worries for the Jets up front, where their defense held opposing offenses to just 1,412 rushing yards on the season and had the league's lowest yards-per-carry average allowed at 3.4.
Even with questions in the secondary, the coverage group may not be any worse than it was last season. Antonio Cromartie and Dee Milliner struggled mightily as the Jets allowed 3,947 yards through the air, by far the highest mark since Ryan took over.
Milliner will not be at full health to start the season, but the secondary will get a boost when he returns. In the meantime, it will be up to the men up front to create pressure on a consistent basis to prevent quarterbacks from getting in rhythm against their secondary.
Calvin Pryor Will Force at Least 4 Fumbles
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Rex Ryan made no bones about the reasoning behind drafting Calvin Pryor as the first safety off the board with the 18th overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft. "Big hits," Ryan said, "will win games." Pryor did not waste any time laying big hits, and missed time during training camp with a concussion.
Hopefully, he is able to avoid sustaining more brain-jarring blows this season while still delivering some ball-jarring blows of his own. Pryor forced nine fumbles at Louisville and had five forced fumbles in his sophomore year.
Pryor does not hesitate to get involved in run defense, and could make an impact by knocking the football loose in those situations where he comes downhill. He could also catch more than one receiver by surprise with a big hit on a catch over the middle. The opportunities will be there for Pryor to force fumbles, the question is whether he can capitalize and stay safe while doing so.
The Jets Will Average More Than 21 Points Per Game on Offense
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The Jets have averaged fewer than 21 points per game in each of the past two years, after crossing that barrier in each of Ryan's first three years as head coach.
Over the past three seasons, the offensive coordinator position has become a revolving door, but Marty Mornhinweg seems to have stopped the spinning—at least momentarily. With a year of experience in Mornhinweg's West Coast offense and a lot of carryover in terms of personnel, the Jets figure to score a bit more easily than they did last year.
The Carolina Panthers were the lowest-scoring offense to make the playoffs in 2013, with an average of 22.9 points per game on offense. If the Jets can get over 21 points per game—an uptick of three points from last season—they could dramatically improve their chances to make the playoffs.
Contract Extension for Muhammad Wilkerson
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Muhammad Wilkerson may be underrated in that he has not yet been voted to his first Pro Bowl or All-Pro team, but he is most likely not underrated by those in the Jets front office and on their coaching staff, who get a firsthand look at his impact on the team on the field and off the field.
Wilkerson is with the Jets at least through the 2015 season, as a result of the Jets exercising the fifth year in his first-round rookie contract. The dollar amounts for the next two seasons are very manageable, with cap numbers of $2,187,500 in 2014 and $6,969,000 in 2015, according to OverTheCap.com.
The Jets have all the leverage right now, because there is no real rush to get him signed. It would seem like now is the best time to make sure he doesn't leave the fold anytime soon.
There is the idea that J.J. Watt's $100 million mega-deal could be a barometer for what Wilkerson's contract will eventually look like. Wilkerson's numbers may not broach Watt's, but the Jets have plenty of cap space to make it work, with $24.5 million in cap space, according to NFLPA records.
Final Record: 9-7
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The Jets are an improved football team from last year, starting at the quarterback position. The young players like Antonio Allen, Demario Davis, Sheldon Richardson, Dee Milliner and others have earned another year of valuable NFL experience and could take a step forward this year. Smith has more skill position help this year than last year as well, with the additions of Decker and Amaro.
If the defense can maintain the status quo, this team could make some strides. The one concern is in the secondary, where the Jets are going to end up patching things together for a little bit while they wait for Milliner to return from injury. The Jets will need backups like Darrin Walls, Leon McFadden and Kyle Wilson to make some contributions.
Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, and Marty Mornhinweg has shown some flashes of brilliance as the offensive coordinator. If they can maximize the talent on this roster and stay healthy, nine wins are well within reach. The Jets will need some kind of improvement off last year if the coaching staff is going to stick around in 2015 and beyond.
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