Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The one opponent the Colts are guaranteed to face is also the one they match up the best with, fortunately for Indianapolis.
The Chiefs have an offense that relies on Jamaal Charles to be MVP-like, as Alex Smith and the Chiefs receivers are mediocre.
If Charles is excelling, the passing game can be dangerous with the extra attention given to Charles, but if Charles is slowed, the offense will suffer.
With Indianapolis' secondary playing press-man coverage, they generally can control the wide receivers, as they did at Arrowhead in Week 16. As long as the linebackers don't ignore Charles in the passing game and can keep him somewhat contained, the Chiefs' offense isn't scaring the Colts.
Defensively, the Chiefs were a bit overrated after facing a slew of poor offenses led by inconsistent quarterbacks in the first half of the season.
The Chiefs have been lit up by better offenses in the second half of the season, and the Colts were one of those teams, scoring on five straight drives after two early three-and-outs, and scored 23 in the second and third quarters alone before running the clock out in the fourth quarter.
That's not to say Kansas City can't win. The Colts run defense is vulnerable against the run, finishing 22nd in run DVOA this season, according to Football Outsiders, and Charles certainly could find a few seams for big gains.
But the Colts have done a good job of shutting down running backs when they make it a priority this season, and the edge lies with them overall, especially if Pat McAfee can negate their large special teams advantage with touchbacks in the Lucas Oil Stadium.