Detroit Lions Poised To Roll The Dice at No. 1 with Matthew Stafford

(Photo by Jonathan Fickies/Getty Images)

Hey everybody, time for my last stab at a mock. You can see my previous one from roughtly five weeks ago here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/140822-big-man-is-a-smaller-risk-jason-smith-at-1-to-the-detroit-lions

As you can see just from the headline, I've come over to the dark side, as it were, because all signs indicate the Detroit Lions will indeed be selecting Matthew Stafford from the University of Georgia at No. 1. I don't agree with the pick, but I'm not the Lions GM. And hey, at least they're not taking Michael Crabtree...

A lot has changed in the last five weeks: players have fallen, risen, and held steady. A couple of names who I had pegged as second rounders creep into the first round here.

I will be keeping "trade tabs" on a few picks, which I will give reasoning for. After I missed on guessing where Jay Cutler would go, I'm not quite so inclined to put myself out there as I was the last time around...

In any case, here is the mock, and with the understanding that maybe half of these picks will be right if I do really well, please enjoy, and I would appreciate any feedback, as well!

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

I do not think the Lions should be making this pick, as I've already outlined. They have too many needs on their roster to pass up on a franchise OT. However, all signs point to the Lions taking Stafford and my job is to predict the picks, not to make the picks for these teams. Therefore he appears at No. 1.

Don't get me wrong, Stafford is a great prospect with a cannon arm, but he has inconsistent decision making and isn't necessarily the most accurate passer.

Couple that with the fact that underclass QBs typically fail at the next level (see: Ryan Leaf), and I'm just not convinced this guy is going to be what the Lions need him to be, ESPECIALLY with a leaky offensive line in front of him. The Lions had better hope they hit on their later OL picks, or this has bust written all over it.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Smith is my top overall prospect in this draft because he's a great pass blocker with a mean streak to move the pile in the running game and doesn't have any off the field issues to speak of.

To me, that makes him the clear No. 2 overall pick, given that the Lions are passing on him, and it's practically a lock now that the Rams have released Orlando Pace. This is still Steven Jackson's team, and he needs blockers; in addition, there should be some good WRs left when the Rams pick early in round 2 if they're interested in replacing Torry Holt.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

50 percent possibility of a trade.

I've had Aaron Curry penciled in here since the NFL combine and I don't see any reason to move him around now; he's tops on the draft boards of several teams, even as Eugene Monroe's draft stock rises. 

However, I don't really envision Curry coming off the board at No. 3. Why? First, he's not a pass-rushing LB, which is where LBs make their money these days, and second, the Seattle Seahawks have indicated a willingness to take Mark Sanchez at No. 4 overall.

Couple that with Scott Pioli's lack of a second round pick in this year's draft, that is a recipe for the Chiefs moving down.

I predict that Mark Sanchez will be gone at No. 3, but if the Chiefs stay put, I think Curry is the pick—Tyson Jackson fills a bigger need, but I don't think Tyson Jackson is worth this selection.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California

In one mock that I did (not published on BR), I had Sanchez falling all the way to the Jets at 17. Then his stock set on fire and I finally bought into the Sanchez hype, just as I gradually bought into the Stafford hype, though the latter came first. I do think that if a team wants Sanchez, they're going to have to move up and get him: without Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks were a pretty awful team.

As for why the Seahawks want him, Mark Sanchez is most certainly a scheme-fit in Seattle and he has great intangibles. At the combine he did a "full workout," even doing the 60-yard shuttle, which is basically an endurance test that virtually no QBs perform.

He essentially showed teams he was willing to do whatever it took to win and he comes across similarly in interviews. NFL personnel always need QBs, and they're buying Mark Sanchez. End result: Sanchez makes lots of money on draft day.

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