2009 NFL Mock Draft: Composite of Experts
You can barely go to a sports site without stumbling over at least one mock draft. So, we at PossessionPoints.com, decided to take on a project that we have not seen elsewhere.
We constructed a composite mock draft based on mock drafts completed this week from 10 football “experts.”
The first thing we noticed about the experts’ drafts is that they are all over the place. While some players have made their way to everyone’s list, there are some highly-touted players who made very few lists. We did notice that the first three top picks were the same on most mock drafts.
Although our composite draft cannot take into account every expert’s picks, it does give insight into the relative value of certain players as seen through the eyes of many experts.
Each mock draft has just 32 players, but our composite draft contains 45 because that is the number of unique names on these 10 mock drafts. For our purpose, we took these names and put them in order based on what we call a “composite score”.
The composite score was generated quite simply—really, we swear. We added together the selection number that a particular player held in each of the mock drafts.
For example, Matthew Stafford was picked No. 1 in all 10 mock drafts we looked at; therefore, he had a composite score of 10.
If a player was not on a particular mock draft, he was given a score of 33 (32 being the last pick) for that mock draft. For example, Michael Johnson was picked for only one of the 10 mock drafts. Amazingly, on that draft, he was picked at No. 9. In the other nine drafts where he was not included, we gave him a score of 33 making his composite score 306.
Let’s see where the players fell out in our composite draft:
1. Detroit – Matt Stafford, quarterback from University of Georgia
Composite Score 10--As we said before, Matt Stafford was the No. 1 choice in all 10 of the mock drafts we studied.
2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT from Baylor
Composite Score 26 - Jason Smith was picked in the No. 2 spot in eight of the 10 drafts we looked at. On the other two, he was picked at No. 4 and No. 6 which makes him a pretty solid No. 2 composite pick.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB from Wake Forest
Composite Score 34 – Curry was picked as early as two in one draft and as late as eight in another. He wound up at No. 3, and eight of the ten drafts had him at No. 3.
4. Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT from Virginia
Composite Score 42 – Monroe was also picked as early as No. 2 in one draft and as late as No. 6 in three drafts. The other six drafts had him at No. 4 four times and No. 3 twice.
5. Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, WR from Texas Tech
Composite Score 67 – Crabtree was only picked at No. 5 in two of the ten drafts. He was picked at No. 4 three times, but that is the earliest any of the mock experts had him selected. The latest any of our experts had him was at No. 13.
6. Cincinnati Bengals – B.J. Raji, DT from Boston College
Composite Score 75 – Raji was selected at No. 6 in three of the mock drafts. This is the earliest he was selected, but the latest he was selected was No. 10. This is a tight range, so we find it hard to argue with his No. 6 position.
7. Oakland Raiders – Brian Orakpo, DE from Texas
Composite Score 79 – While the composite has Orakpo ending up at No. 7, none of the mock drafts have him in this position. Orakpo’s earliest position in the mocks was at No. 5, and surprisingly, he was put there six times. So, it would appear many experts think a more likely destination for this defensive end is Cleveland rather than Oakland.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Mark Sanchez, quarterback from USC
Composite Score 88 – Sanchez was picked as early as No. 4 and as late as No. 12 in our 10 mock drafts. Three mock drafts had him at No. 8 where he wound up on the composite. Three other mock drafts also put him at No. 12.
9. Green Bay Packers – Aaron Maybin, DE from Penn State
Composite Score 103 – Maybin was selected as early as No. 9 and as late as No. 13 in the ten mock drafts. His most frequent selection spot was No. 10 where he appeared five times.
10. San Francisco 49ers – Andre Smith, OT from Alabama
Composite Score 112 – Smith was picked as early as No. 6 and as late as No. 16. The most common selection in the mock drafts for Smith was No. 13 where he appeared four times. Three experts had him going at No. 6. The tendency of a composite is to split the difference which is why he is on our composite at No. 10.
11. Buffalo Bills – Jeremy Maclin, WR from Missouri
Composite Score 119 – The selections were highly varied for Maclin as he had the largest spread of any of the first 12 composite picks. His earliest pick was at No. 7 and the latest was way down at No. 26. He was most frequently picked at No.7 which was where he showed up in four of the mock drafts.
While the composite puts him at No. 11, none of the mock drafts had him at this number. We side with all the experts here as well since the Bills have picked up the one and only Terrell Owens.
12. Denver Broncos – Everette Brown, DE from Florida State.
Composite Score 122 – The Mock Drafts have Brown being selected as early as No. 5 and as late as No. 14. He is most frequently picked at No. 11 where he appears in three of the mock drafts. We can see Maclin sliding down and Brown sliding up without too much trouble.
13. Washington Redskins – Tyson Jackson, DE from LSU.
Composite Score 128 – Jackson was picked as high as No. 9 and as late as No. 18. His most common selection spot was at No. 12 where he showed up four times.
14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB from Ohio State
Composite Score 144 – This one is really surprising. Next to Matt Stafford, Jenkins has the tightest range on the 10mock drafts. He was either selected No. 14 or No. 15 in all 10 expert mock drafts with No. 14 being the most frequent spot at six times.
15. Houston Texans – Michael Oher, OT from Mississippi
Composite Score 168 – There is a pretty wide range with Oher as some mock drafts have him going as early as No. 8 while some having him go as late as No. 22. He shows up most often in the No. 16 spot where he appears four times.
16. San Diego Chargers – Brian Cushing, LB from USC
Composite Score 178 – The selection numbers on Cushing are broad as well. He is picked as early as No. 12 and as late as No. 25. It is a tie as to where he falls most often in selection. He appears in three mock drafts at No. 15 and in three mock drafts at No. 18.
17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, quarterback from Kansas State.
Composite score 183 – Freeman is the third quarterback in most mock drafts. He shows up as early as No. 11 and as late as No. 22. He actually does show up at No. 17 in two mock drafts, but he is found most often at No. 19 where he appears three times.
18. Denver Broncos – Robert Ayers, DE from Tennessee
Composite score 200 – Talk about your wide ranges! Ayers shows up as early as No. 11 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. While two mock drafts left him out completely, two had him at No. 11 and two at No. 13. None had him going at No. 18 where the composite score landed him.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chris Wells, RB from Ohio State
Composite Score 204 – Wells gets the award of “widest range” of anyone we looked at. Given that we only assigned 33 numbers, we were impressed that his range was 28. He was selected as early as No. 5 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round.
It is pretty clear to see that the mock draft experts have no idea what to do with Wells. His most frequent selection fell at No. 14 where he appeared twice, but two mock drafts left him entirely off the first round.
20. Detroit Lions – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR from University of Maryland
Composite Score 214 – Heyward-Bey came close to Wells’ “widest range” mark as he was picked as early as No. 7 and as late as not-in-the-first-round. Given that Detroit has greater needs than WR, we doubt that Heyward-Bey will wind up where the composite left him. The most frequent selection number he held was No. 17 where he showed up in three of the mock drafts.
21. Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno, RB from University of Georgia
Composite Score 229 – Moreno showed up in all ten mock drafts as early as No. 16 and as late as No.31. He did appear at No. 21 twice where the composite score left him, but he was more often selected at No. 31 where he was found in three of the mock drafts.
22. Minnesota Vikings – Peria Jerry, DT from Mississippi
Composite Score 230 – Jerry was picked as early as No. 15 and as far the down the list as not-picked-in-the-first-round. He was only left off of one of the mock drafts. He showed up most frequently at No. 27 where he was found four times.
23. New England Patriots – Brandon Pettigrew, TE from Oklahoma State
Composite Score 232 – Pettigrew has the distinction of having the highest composite score while being included in all 10 mock drafts. The earliest he appeared is at No. 17 and the latest was at No. 31. He can be found most often at No. 21 where he appeared four times. While he does not show up at his composite position of 23, he does show up three times at 24. We think 24 might be more accurate.
24. Atlanta Falcons – Rey Maualuga, LB from USC
Composite Score 240 – We would love to tell you there were 10 times when Maualuga showed up at No. 24, but, alas, that is not the case. He appeared as early as No. 15 on the mock drafts and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. He tied in his most frequent selection spots appearing at No. 20 and No. 30 two times.
25. Miami Dolphins – Clay Matthews, LB from USC
Composite Score 245 – Just like the other USC linebacker above, Matthews was left off the first round picks once and selected as early as No. 15 once. He most frequently appeared at No. 25 where the composite score placed him, and he showed up at this selection spot three times.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Vontae Davis, CB from Illinois
Composite Score 245 – Davis tied with Matthews in the composite score, but because Matthews’ earliest selection was at No. 15 and Davis’ was at No. 19, Matthews got the 25th slot. Davis, also like Matthews, most frequently showed up in the mock drafts at No. 25 where he appeared twice.
27. Indianapolis Colts – Eben Britton, OT from Arizona
Composite Score 249 – Britton was picked as early as No. 20 and was left off the first-round list as well. None of the mocks had him No. 27 as the composite did, and he most frequently landed at No. 22 where he appeared three times.
28. Buffalo Bills– Larry English, DE from Northern Illinois.
Composite Score 270 – Some mock drafts picked English as early as 23, but he was left entirely out of the first round in three of the 10 drafts we studied. None of the mock experts picked him at No. 28, and the most frequent spot where he showed up was at No. 23 where he appeared four times.
29. New York Giants – Percy Harvin, WR from Florida
Composite Score 280 – Harvin was picked as high as No. 22 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. His most frequent selection spot was No. 26 where he showed up twice. He did show up in one mock draft at No. 29 where the composite score left him.
30. Tennessee Titans – William Beatty, OT from Connecticut
Composite Score 286 – This selection is hard to figure since Beatty was left off the first- round in six of the 10 mock drafts we examined. However, he did show up at No. 20 in three of the drafts and at No. 28 in one which is why his composite is at No. 30.
31. Arizona Cardinals – Evander Hood, DT from University of Missouri.
Composite Score 302 – Hood was left out of the first round in five of the 10 mock drafts we studied. When he was included, Hood showed up most frequently at No. 27 where he appeared three times.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Michael Johnson, DE from Georgia Tech
Composite Score 306 – This one almost seems ridiculous. Johnson was left out of the first round in nine of the 10 mock drafts we looked at. The only mock draft that included him selected him way up the list at No. 9 which is how he found his way to the 32nd spot.
As we said at the start, there were 45 unique players that showed up in these 10 mock drafts. We are listing players 33-45 and their composite scores so you can see who the remaining players are and where they fell: Always keep in mind, that draft experts re-evaluate their choices daily.
If we were to re-run our composite again tomorrow, there might be changes due to the experts’ changes.
33. Darius Butler, CB from Connecticut – Composite Score 306
34. Hakeem Nicks, WR from North Carolina – Composite Score 307
35. Kenny Britt, WR from Rutgers – Composite Score 314
36. Alex Mack, C from California – Composite Score 315
37. Donald Brown, RB from Connecticut – Composite Score 319
38. Jarron Gilbert, DE from San Jose State – Composite Score 321
39. Connor Barwin, LB from University of Cincinnati – Composite Score 322
40. Clint Sintim, LB from University of Virginia – Composite Score 323
41. James Laurinaitis, LB from Ohio State – Composite Score 323
42. Shawn Nelson, TE from Southern Miss – Composite Score 325
43. LeSean McCoy, RB from University of Pittsburgh – Composite Score 328
44. Max Unger, OT from Oregon – Composite Score 328
45. D.J. Moore, CB from Vanderbilt – Composite Score 329
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