Fantasy Football 2012: Why Tim Tebow Fans Would Be Foolish to Take QB
I love Tim Tebow as much as anyone, but that doesn't mean taking the Jets' backup quarterback in your fantasy draft is a smart move. In fact, that roster spot you're wasting on the former Bronco could end up costing you your league.
In theory, Tebow could be a valuable addition to the Jets. Unfortunately, fantasy football doesn't track hard work and leadership. It tracks raw numbers, and in that sense Tebow won't be a big-time fantasy player.
Here are the five biggest reasons why he will be a fantasy failure.
He's a Backup
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I don't care if Tim Tebow is in fact the son of God (which I believe is a distinct possibility), he isn't even his own team's starter.
That job belongs to Mark Sanchez, who while not a stellar quarterback, does seem entrenched in his job for the forseeable future. He led the team to two consecutive AFC championship games; his statistical faults aren't going to cost him his job.
In today's pass-happy NFL, any true starting quarterback is going to put up big fantasy points. That means Tebow immediately falls into the 30s in terms of fantasy rankings. Most leagues don't carry 30 quarterbacks. It's a simple numbers game.
Tebow might score a few touchdowns, but teams don't use quarterbacks by committee. Using a backup quarterback in fantasy football is a terrible risk.
He's Not Very Good
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Tim Tebow wins games, but he doesn't do so in a fantasy-friendly way. He is not an accurate passer and is a turnover risk on every play.
Even if Tebow got a guaranteed starting job it wouldn't mean that he was suddenly Peyton Manning. Accuracy problems don't go away over night. It will take him years of work with coaches to improve, if he even can.
Tebow didn't even complete 50 percent of his passes last season. His quarterback ranking was only 72.9, and he barely averaged more than one touchdown per game.
If his name were John Thomas he'd be out of the league by now. Just because he's Tebow doesn't mean he's going to be a fantasy star.
The Jets Don't Pass the Ball Very Often
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Even if by some miracle Tim Tebow becomes the Jets' starter, he's going to be leading an offense that doesn't pass the ball too often.
Rex Ryan has allows tried to employ a "ground and pound" system for his offense. He believes that games are won in the trenches and through physical downhill running.
New offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has employed a similar system in Miami. While he has allowed running backs like Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Reggie Bush to see some statistical success, he hasn't done as well with his quarterbacks.
The Jets were middle-of-the-pack last year in terms of run/pass ratio (they ran 43 percent of the time), but they are usually much closer to the top of the league. They led the league in rushing in 2009, and in 2010 they finished fourth.
Even in his limited opportunities Tebow will primarily be a runner. Passing is where fantasy points come from nowadays. His offense isn't going to do Tebow any favors.
They Have Bad Wide Receivers
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When Tebow gets the chance to throw it's not like it will be to Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson.
New York's leading receiver is Santonio Holmes, also known as the league's worst teammate. He quit on his team in the season finale, and his relationship with Mark Sanchez is so bad that many fans wanted Holmes to be released.
Even when he behaves Holmes isn't exactly elite. He's never played in a Pro Bowl and he only caught 51 passes last year.
The Jets are relying on rookie Stephen Hill to be their second starter. Hill caught only 49 passes in his entire college career, and has no experience in an NFL offense.
Their slot receiver is Jeremy Kerley, a former fifth-round pick who caught only 29 balls last year.
The Jets don't have a strong group of receivers. Nobody is going to carry Tebow; he has to be accurate if he's throwing passes. A bad quarterback throwing to bad receivers doesn't usually yield great fantasy results.
The Jets Have an Overrated Offensive Line
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The last line of defense for any quarterback is their offensive line. Even if they have bad receivers, any quarterback can make plays with enough time in the pocket.
Unfortunately for Tebow, the Jets have an overrated offensive line.
Don't get me wrong, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold are both excellent players, but the rest of the line isn't on their level. Brandon Moore is aging, Wayne Hunter might have been the worst offensive lineman in the NFL last year, and Vladimir Ducasse is going to do everything in his power to take that title from him this year.
The Jets gave up 2.5 sacks per game last year. Considering all of the scampering Tebow does, that stat would probably go up if he was behind that line.
A two-player line can't protect Tim Tebow. Unless the Jets see massive improvements from Hunter and Ducasse the line is going to be a problem again. Taking a starting quarterback behind a bad line is risky, but a backup?
There's simply no point.