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Pittsburgh Steelers: Opening Futures Book Point Spreads for 2012-13 Games

Kevin StottSenior Analyst IMay 30, 2012

Pittsburgh Steelers: Opening Futures Book Point Spreads for 2012-13 Games

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    Fresh from the LVH SuperBook here in sunny Sin City, here are the the 11 Future Book point spreads for games involving the Pittsburgh Steelers this regular season.

    At last look, the Steelers were listed at 18/1 to win Super Bowl XLVII, so if you’re a big Pittsburgh backer, best grab those odds before your fellow fans of the six-time Super Bowl champions drive them down a bit.

    Please note that Week 4 (Bye), Week 8 (vs. Redskins), Week 12 (at Cleveland), Week 14 (vs. Chargers), Week 16 (vs. Cincinnati) and Week 17 (vs. Cleveland) are not included in the slideshow because there are no lines posted on them.

    That's either because the teams the Steelers are playing are weaker and the numbers would be higher—and a bigger risk of being wrong by the sports book—or, in the Chargers' case, there is too much of a variable for the sports book to put an accurate line up.

    Here are the 11 games sportsbook director Jay Kornegay and his crack staff at the SuperBook have put lines up on for Pittsburgh.

    (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Week 1: DENVER BRONCOS -2 over Steelers

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    DATE: Sunday, Sept. 9

    TIME: 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT

    TV: NBC

    ANALYSIS: Welcome to the Mile High City, Peyton. Now try to deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers defense in the season opener, old man.

    The black and gold will have revenge on its mind after Tim Tebow and the Broncos bounced them from the AFC playoffs last season.

    This should be a low-scoring affair, despite Manning’s presence at quarterback. If you want to bet Pittsburgh, you should think about taking them on the money line where you will get a small +110 to +120 price if the public doesn’t pound the line too much.

    I see the Steelers being on their best behavior here and using that revenge as motivation on the national television stage in Denver.

    And losing their opener is not something Pittsburgh wants heading into a pretty tough NFL schedule this season.

Week 2: STEELERS -5 over New York Jets

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    DATE: Sunday, Sept. 16

    TIME: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

    TV: CBS

    ANALYSIS: No matter if the Steelers won or lost their regular season opener at Denver, this will be huge game.

    Being the home opener at Heinz Field will provide a huge advantage for Pittsburgh. Coach Mike Tomlin and his staff know this is a game not to be taken for granted.

    And the story lines will be rich with Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow and former Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes all on the field for the Jets.

    I expect the homeboys to dominate defensively and score a couple touchdowns in the air against New York in this one, but I do feel this point spread is spot on.

Week 3: Steelers -3 over OAKLAND RAIDERS

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    DATE: Sunday, Sept. 23

    TIME: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

    TV: CBS

    ANALYSIS: These two storied NFL franchises always bang heads and have two of the most intimidating uniforms in professional football—black-and-silver and black-and-gold.

    The Steelers lead the all-time series, 14-11, and smashed the Raiders 35-3 in November of 2010 at Heinz Field.

    From a handicapping point of view, I suggest betting the Steelers at -3 now as this (futures book) line should only go up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Week 3 line was more like -5 or -6 for Pittsburgh.

    Like the 2010 meeting, I think Oakland will have trouble scoring against the Steelers. The Raiders are always a team hoping to improve while the Steelers have been a model of consistency throughout their history.

    Lay the three, Bubba.

Week 5: STEELERS -3 over Philadelphia Eagles

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    DATE: Sunday, Oct. 7

    TIME: 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT

    TV: FOX

    ANALYSIS: This battle of the Keystone State is always must-watch television and this season’s clash will be no different.

    The Eagles are always a hard team to figure out. They often play great one week then poorly the next.

    Two of the NFL’s fastest deep threats—the Steelers’ Mike Wallace and the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson—will be on display. This baby could be either really low-scoring or really high-scoring.

    As far as picking a bet on this number for Pittsburgh (-3), I say lay off as it should be about the same the day of the game.

    And for this game, I think the home-field advantage may ultimately prove to be the difference with an extremely loud, Terrible Towel-waving crowd possibly being the difference in a game that very well could go down to the wire.

    I’d stay away from this futures bet.

Week 6: Steelers -3 TENNESSEE TITANS

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    DATE: Thursday, Oct. 11

    TIME: 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT

    TV: NFL Network

    ANALYSIS: Here’s another one I really like.

    Pittsburgh is laying a field goal at Tennessee on a Thursday night nationally televised NFL Network game.  I see the Steelers teeing off on the Titans, a team, like the Raiders, always seemingly struggling to find their identity and create some positive momentum.

    Big Ben should have the passing game clicking by this fifth game of the season (Week 6, bye Week 5), so laying the three points seems like as good as you’re going to get in this one.

    Bet it now if you can.

Week 7: Steelers -1½ over CINCINNATI BENGALS

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    DATE: Sunday, Oct. 21

    TIME: 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT

    TV: NBC

    ANALYSIS: The second straight of back-to-back nationally televised road games, this AFC North battle will be an extremely important one for the Steelers, no matter the scenario.

    The Bengals have steadily improved as the -1½ line reveals. But as much as the Bengals' defense has improved, I still feel they have a psychological thing in the back of their heads that the Steelers still have their number.

    Although I feel the line is extremely accurate, I still think laying the minimal points in this one with Pittsburgh is recommended. I doubt the game-week and game-day line will be any better than this.

Week 9: Steelers Pick ‘Em vs. NEW YORK GIANTS

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    DATE: Sunday, Nov. 4

    TIME: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

    TV: CBS

    ANALYSIS: This is the first game on the schedule I will really be looking forward to watching.

    The Super Bowl champion Giants play host to the Steelers, and, as you can tell be the “even” line, Las Vegas really respects Pittsburgh—or really slights the G-Men.

    For me, this futures bet and even the regular week-line wager are both “stay aways.” This is a game to order a pizza for, stock up on beverages and just sit back and enjoy.

    Just too close to call and too good to miss a single second of.

Week 10: STEELERS -7 Kansas City Chiefs

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    DATE: Monday, Nov. 12

    TIME: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT

    TV: ESPN

    ANALYSIS: The Steelers on Monday Night Football is always something to get pumped up about, but against the Chiefs?

    Like the Titans line, I don’t see this one getting any better for Steelers bettors. Kansas City may be swooning by mid-November while the black and gold may be in a groove.

    And think about this, if the Steelers should have lost on the road to the Giants the week before—a distinct possibility—they will be in a foul mood and will not only want to protect the home field, but may need the win for playoff positioning.

    Taking Pittsburgh and laying the touchdown is the only option for me in this futures line.

Week 11: STEELERS -3 over Baltimore Ravens

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    DATE: Sunday, Nov. 18

    TIME: 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT

    TV: NBC

    ANALYSIS: As has been of late, this may be the most important game on the Steelers schedule. That is until the rematch two weeks later in Baltimore on Dec. 2.

    This one will be a human chess match. It will be low-scoring and boring for those who don’t follow football,  but as hard-hitting a game as you can get.

    My recommendation, as with the Giants tilt, is to pass on any wager and just sit back and enjoy.

    Thank God NBC is smart enough to put this bad boy on national television in prime time. This one will get huge ratings. Mark my words.

    And better hide the women and children here. This one should get ugly. With Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu likely all playing here, no doubt it will.

    Hurts even writing about it, Timmy.

Week 13: BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 over Steelers

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    DATE: Sunday, Dec. 2

    TIME: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

    TV: CBS

    ANALYSIS: Rinse. Repeat.

    With no futures line in Week 12 in the Browns game at Cleveland, it’s two straight games against the Ravens, the team that swept the Steelers last season.

    I see a mirror image of the Week 11 brawl here in Baltimore in a game that could decide the AFC North.

    But when these two heated rivals meet, my inclination is to take the under where the total is usually between 34 and 36 points.

    Taking three points with Pittsburgh seems cool from a distance, but I’ll again pass and just watch.

    For me, this is now easily the best rivalry in the NFL today.

Week 15: Steelers Pick ‘Em vs. DALLAS COWBOYS

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    DATE: Sunday, Dec. 16

    TIME: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

    TV: CBS

    ANALYSIS: Another one I really like and recommend for Steelers fans and futures gamblers.

    The way I see it, Pittsburgh will really want to win its last three games—this one and Weeks 16 and 17 at home against Cincinnati and Cleveland—especially after playing the Ravens in Weeks 11 and 13.

    Dallas is in an extremely tough division (NFC East) and will likely be behind the Giants and Eagles at this point and possibly out of the playoff race, so taking the Steelers in a dead-even situation from this distance seems really smart to me.

    I know this game’s in Dallas, but in my opinion, there is no more over-hyped team in the NFL than the Cowboys. Always a bridesmaid.

    Along with the Raiders (Week 3), Titans (Week 6) and Bengals (Week 7), this (Cowboys) is one of my four favorite future bets I’d recommend to those interested.

Conclusion

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    In retrospect, note the Steelers are only underdogs in two games (at Denver and at Baltimore), a sign of ultimate respect from the bookmakers.

    The games without lines—two against the Browns, one against the Bengals in the Steel City and a meeting with the Chargers at Heinz Field—will also see Pittsburgh being favored.

    So buckle up, people. We’re almost 14 weeks away from the opener and it will be here before you know it.

    Good luck, and here are a couple of other future lines from the SuperBook you may be interested in seeing.

     

    ODDS TO WIN AFC NORTH DIVISION

    Ravens.........................................6/5
    Steelers........................................7/5
    Bengals......................................13/4
    Browns.......................................20/1

    PITTSBURGH STEELERS REGULAR-SEASON WIN TOTALS

    Over 10½ (+140)

    Under 10½ (-160)


    SUPER BOWL XLVII EARLY LINE

    NFC................... -3 ......................AFC
    Over................ 52 1/2 ...............Under

     

    Follow me on Twitter: @KevinStott11

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