2012 NBA Draft: Why Andre Drummond Will Fail at the Next Level

No big man in recent memory, save for possibly Dwight Howard, has entered the NBA draft with a higher ceiling than Andre Drummond.

The UConn product's freakish athleticism and NBA-ready size, at 6'11" and 270 pounds, have NBA scouts raving about his potential. Scouts have compared the 18-year-old to Howard for years, even labeling him the top player in his draft class, but there may be a more apt NBA comparison: Kwame Brown.

Like Drummond, Brown was regarded as the best player in his draft class and a potential franchise centerpiece. He was drafted with the first overall pick in the 2001 NBA Draft and soon gained the “bust” label after he shocked every team in the NBA with his inconsistency, poor work ethic and inability to dominate.

These are all traits that Andre Drummond possesses.

Unfortunately for Drummond, his dominant performances in high school did not translate into college. In his only year at the University of Connecticut, Drummond averaged a meager 10.2 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game. Although it is known that Drummond is still a work in progress offensively, his inability to be an effective rebounder shows not only his lack of effort on the boards, but also serves as a warning to general managers expecting him to follow a Dwight Howard-esque path in the NBA.

Drummond's inconsistency dogged him throughout last year—although he dominated in performances against teams like West Virginia, against whom he scored 20 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and blocked three shots.

He followed such displays with disappearing acts in games like the Huskies' loss to Cincinnati one week later. He looked lost on the court, scoring four points on nine shot attempts, grabbing six rebounds and blocking only one shot. Drummond showed a tendency to disappear in big games, like UConn's loss to Iowa State in the NCAA tournament, where he only managed a mediocre two points and three rebounds.

Drummond's offensive woes only continued with his free-throw shooting. He averaged an abysmal 29.5 percent from the stripe last year, which is far below the expectations for a starting NBA center.

In comparison, future Hall of Fame center Shaquille O'Neal, often derided for his atrocious free-throw percentage, averaged 52.7 percent in his NBA career. Drummond's ineptitude at the free-throw line will only continue next year when he makes the jump into the Association.

Although Drummond was a solid defender last year, having averaged 2.7 blocks per game, his excellent college defense won't translate as well to the NBA—where he will have to face a higher level of competition in established post players like Andrew Bynum and Marc Gasol.

In short, any team that plans on drafting Andre Drummond should be wary of his bust potential. Although his ceiling is undeniably high, the risk that he becomes the second coming of Kwame Brown is higher than the chance he becomes the next Dwight Howard.