Robert Griffin III Wrong for the Colts? Ask the Friday Tweetbag

Nate DunlevyGuest ColumnistMarch 30, 2012

Is 6 > 12?
Is 6 > 12?Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Welcome to the Friday Tweetbag where I answer your tweets, emails and comments.

It's all Twitter all the time this Friday...

Q: Kind of concerned the Colts the Colts won't take Luck. Any chance of this happening and how bad would RGIII pick be?



A: Great question, Dave. While I'm convinced the Colts are going to draft Andrew Luck, I understand why some of Jim Irsay's comments this week have some fans worried. While I personally favor Luck's style of play, I can understand why some draftniks have Robert Griffin III rated higher. He's a phenomenal prospect and will likely be a star. But, it would be terrifying if the Colts drafted him.

Why? Quite simply, it means that they had no real plan when they released Peyton Manning. I'm of the opinion that releasing Manning was only possible because the team knew 100% who they were taking. If the front office had not done enough homework to decide between Griffin and Luck before that fateful day in March but the team pulled the trigger anyway, then that would say volumes about the level of preparedness of the brass.

It would be patently insane to cut Peyton Manning without a real, concrete fallback plan. If Griffin had been the guy all along, I'd be saying the same thing about a last-minute waffle to take Luck. At this point, you need your team to be run by clear-minded, focused men.

That's why I'm certain Luck is the choice, and why Colts fans should be disturbed if it isn't.


Q:  Where will Jags end up recordwise if Gabbert can improve his passer rating by 10 pts?



A: Great question, Mark. I've been hard on Gabbert, but let's say he pulls his rating up over the 77 threshold. That would put him in the 'viable' range moving forward.

If he were to raise his completion percentage to 57%, his YPA to around 6.1 and throw 15 TDs and 10 picks, that would put him around 77 for passer rating, assuming the same number of throws as 2011. That would give him roughly same stats as Kyle Orton or Matt Cassel.

Using the WPA model supported by Advanced NFL Stats, those guys were basically worth "zero points" over the course of the year. Last year, Gabbert cost the Jags 61 points with his horrid play.

So if the Jags stayed the same in every other area, but got "zero level" play out of Gabbert, they would be close to -25 points on the year. That would put them around seven to eight wins.

So if Gabbert becomes Kyle Orton next year, the Jags could sniff a Wild Card spot if everything else stayed the same and they got some crazy luck like they did in 2010.


Q:  You think the #Texans will be a top the AFC- South for next several years?



A: I think this question depends entirely on the development of Luck, Gabbert and Locker. Defense is variable from year to year, and I generally favor the team with the best quarterback situation. Right now, that's Houston. But given Schaub's injury history and the pedigree of the three young signal callers in the South, I have a hard time penciling the Texans in for a long string of championships. It could totally happen, and they are in good shape now, but let's see how the young guys grow in 2012.


Q:  Marcus Stroud? Any value for 1 yr? Maybe grab a long term NT with next yrs number 1?



A: Stroud sat out all of 2011 and has had five sacks and 57 tackles in the last three years playing for bad defenses in Buffalo. At this point he's nothing but a body. You can bring him into camp and let him play for a spot, but if he wins one with any time, that team is probably not going to be very good. I just don't see it. The Colts need an nose tackle, but Stroud is not the answer.