Gauging the Flight Risk for the New England Patriots' 2012 Key Free Agents

Winning as a team is about building shape, character and depth. No football team in the last decade has hit upon all of those cornerstones of success more than the New England Patriots. They are the creators of the greatest dynasty. And still, after all this time, they're a force to be reckoned with.

The Patriots have the elements in place to make a deep playoff run in 2012. With a few additions, they could find themselves right back in the Super Bowl.

But first things first. You learn to walk before you learn to run and you put up the Christmas tree before you decorate it. So, before we chase some of the free agents roaming around the league, we have to nail down the players on our roster who remain in limbo.     

Here's a look at New England's key free agents and an estimation of how concerned you should be about possibly having to say goodbye to them. 

Andre Carter: Not a Flight Risk

In listening to the Patriots radio network every day, I've heard upwards of 50 analysts and players talk about their various interactions with Andre Carter. They've all expressed nothing but glowing praise on him as a gentleman and as a consummate professional.

Prior to the 2011 season, Carter didn't think he'd ever play football again. Landing in New England was a fortuitous stroke of good luck for him. I imagine his humble and gracious nature will carry him into the 2012 season with a one-year contract. For that, we'll get every last drop of the energy and devotion which we've grown accustomed to getting from this outstanding player.

It should also be noted that Carter was one of the Patriots' most steadfast locker room leaders in 2011. The guy is wise enough and dedicated enough to be named an honorary captain of the team. Letting him go would be more than foolish; it would be harmful to the team's chemistry.

Brian Hoyer: Not a Flight Risk Until He Proves His Talent on the Big Stage

Brian Hoyer remains somewhat of a mystery to Patriot Nation.

Hoyer has routinely conquered his competition to remain as Tom Brady's top backup, yet we've had little experience in seeing him on the field.

Obviously that's a good thing, as it means Brady is still in great shape. However, it leaves a lingering question as to what Hoyer would truly be capable of if his number was called. Such is the inherent mystery with backups.

Tom Brady's season-ending injury in 2008 allowed Matt Cassel to soak up the spotlight and get some serious attention on the open market, which eventually landed him the starting gig in Kansas City. Green Bay's Matt Flynn also had some marquee moments on national television, which has since transformed him into a hot offseason commodity.

Since Hoyer hasn't had the opportunity to flex his game-time chops like Cassel or Flynn, he probably won't have a list of teams knocking down the door with barrels of cash. Unless, of course, a team is willing to chase Hoyer based on his reputation. That remains unlikely. 

As of now, we can really only measure the value of Hoyer by the trust that Bill Belichick has shown in keeping him as the Patriots' top backup quarterback. For now, that'll have to be enough.

Hoyer will likely be wearing a Patriots jersey in 2012.  

Mark Anderson: Not a Flight Risk

Last season, Mark Anderson and Andre Carter stymied Mark Sanchez twice and essentially sent the Jets into a season-long tailspin. For a while, Anderson and Carter were on their way to becoming one of the ultimate dynamic duos in the league.

A heavy burden fell on Anderson when Carter went down with a season-ending injury. Without hesitation, Anderson accepted the responsibility and performed beautifully with 10 sacks on the season.

Week 15 was especially profound for Anderson. Patriots vs. Broncos was easily the most anticipated game of the season. That may seem silly in retrospect, but at the time, it was the game that everyone in America couldn't stop hyping.

That night, Mark Anderson effectively delivered the first big blow to the Tim Tebow phenomenon. He sacked Tebow twice and recovered a key fumble which eventually led to a Patriots touchdown.

Anderson was in attack mode all night and made Tebow absolutely miserable. Anderson should receive his proper credit in the history books for being the first player to silence the hysteria of "Tebow Time."  

Only a few players on New England's roster consistently got better as the 2011 season unfolded. Anderson was one of those guys. 

A short-term deal with low guarantees should be more than sufficient to bring Anderson back in 2012 and let him and Carter take another shot at the crown.

On a personal note, I'd love to see Anderson back in a Patriots uniform. The guy plays hard and he loves being a Patriot. You can't ask for more than that.

Deion Branch: Likely to Return for Tom Brady's Sake

Like Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch is one of those guys you just wish could stay young forever.

Branch is still capable of showing flashes of youth and sensational athleticism. In fact, it was his remarkable reception that kept the Patriots alive in Super Bowl XLVI. Without a doubt, he's one of the most important players to ever wear a Patriots jersey and he's still one of Tom Brady's most cherished teammates.

Branch will most likely be open to a very modest contract. However, knowing the Patriots' philosophy of paying for future performance, it seems unlikely that they'd offer him anything in the form of sentimentality. They'll either keep him because they think he can still perform or they'll let him go.

If I had it my way, I'd keep Branch for another year or two. There's no harm in signing him to a short-term deal and letting him go if he hits the hardest part of the age wall. Problem is, the Patriots aren't generally known for their warm and fuzzy qualities.

There is, however, another reason why the Patriots might keep Branch, and that would be to hold on to one of Brady's best friends. That has little to do with the Patriots being sentimental and everything to do with the franchise keeping their best player happy. They can eat the cost and call it "good business."

Following that reasoning, it's foreseeable that we haven't seen the last of Branch. That's a good thing for Patriot Nation, considering how beloved he is around New England and how sad it will be to eventually see him go.

Matthew Slater: Not a Flight Risk at All

Like Andre Carter, Matthew Slater emerged as a true leader for this team in 2011. Slater hasn't had his breakout season yet, but the Patriots will almost certainly keep him in anticipation of great things ahead.

The stats don't paint the full picture of Slater's contributions to the Patriots. He's a dynamo on special teams, he's a leader in the locker room and he's almost certain to blossom into a reliable receiver.

Slater also plays the other side of the ball, which Bill Belichick loves.

Belichick adores versatile players who can move around and excel at various positions. He loves throwing Aaron Hernandez on the field as a running back, using Devin McCourty in every conceivable way, sliding Julian Edelman over to the defensive unit and using Slater a safety. It's a form of controlled madness that has come to be a hallmark of Belichick's unique coaching style. 

In short, Slater does all of the little things that haven't shown up on the stat sheet yet. It's highly likely he'll be on the Patriots through 2015 for somewhere under $8,000,000. 

Wes Welker: Not a Flight Risk, Although the Situation Could Get a Little Ugly

Not only did Wes Welker drastically outperform his last contract, but the terms of said contract put him in a sticky position of having to renegotiate from the downside of 30.

He received the franchise tag and he'll definitely be back with the Patriots in 2012, but the full extent of the situation remains cloudy.

The odds of Welker happily playing under the terms of a one-year deal is slim. Given the incredible numbers he's put up over the years, he's probably looking for some degree of elite money. He most likely wants a multi-year deal with substantial guarantees to supplement his future income and protect him against potential injuries.

The Patriots, on the other hand, are most likely struggling to hand out big dough to an aging receiver who doesn't stretch the field or intimidate defenses the way Victor Cruz does.

And that's the stalemate.

Welker does, indeed, deserve a sweet contract. Problem is, the Patriots don't have a long-ball threat to balance Welker's role in the slot, which means they'd theoretically be paying a ton of money for a lopsided offense.

With all the receiving talent on the free agency market, the Patriots are probably wondering if they want to drastically cut their cash by signing Welker to the deal he wants, thereby tightening the strings on their wallet for the rest of the offseason.

Luckily for Welker, the Patriots don't seem to be in the market for a marquee acquisition right now. There's been little evidence to support the notion that New England is aggressively chasing a big-market receiver like Mike Wallace or Vincent Jackson.

The Patriots will most likely go after someone like Reggie Wayne, who they'll be able to sign to a relatively modest contract. It's conceivable that they can work out a reasonable deal with Welker and bring in Wayne, and still be able to keep many of their own free agents in the process. 

Wes Welker will be back in New England and order will be restored, but we still might be faced with a bitter contract struggle over the offseason. Then again, the business end of this sport is rarely without a little bloodshed, so perhaps what's coming is par for the course.

Personally, I'm crossing my fingers that this goes as smoothly as possible.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 50-50 Shot at Taking Flight

In a league where big games are ultimately decided by which team makes more mistakes, a guy like BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a true asset to have on your roster.

The value of Green-Ellis is in his ability to protect the football. One could argue that's the most important virtue a player can have in this league. So, in that sense, his value is sky-high.

Bottom line: The ball is safe when it's in Green-Ellis' hands. That's what he does for you.

What he doesn't do, however, is change the tempo of the game or dominate the field. In other words, Green-Ellis isn't going to take matters into his own hands and swing the fate of the game towards New England's side. He isn't a game-changer.

Green-Ellis is one of many vital chess pieces to an offense that works on many different levels. The Patriots don't rely on Green-Ellis to win games, nor do they rely on Wes Welker. They don't even truly rely on Rob Gronkowski, who's the closest thing the Patriots have to a game-changer.

The Patriots rely on all of their pieces to make the machine function. This both helps and hurts Green-Ellis, depending upon how he looks at it.

On one hand, he's an essential element to the Patriots' ability to move the ball. On the other hand, if he's looking for more money elsewhere, his communal role in the tapestry of New England's offense may not distinguish him to the point where he could realistically command big dollar signs.

Nevertheless, a reliable running back who doesn't fumble is extremely difficult to find. That may be enough of a reason for another team to pounce on Green-Ellis.

In short, Green-Ellis' future in New England remains ambiguous.

In my mind, bringing Green-Ellis back is a no-brainer. However, if another team makes an enticing offer, I just don't see the Patriots going to the mattresses to keep him. It depends upon the mentality of the Patriots heading into 2012, and whether or not they're looking to switch their game plan and hunt for a game-changer on the free agency market.

As is always the case for fans, you hope your guys like playing for your team and you hope they want to stick around. Green-Ellis seems to enjoy his role on the Patriots. It's the financial element that makes this situation a little murky. 

It remains to be seen how much money Green-Ellis is really looking for. It also remains to be seen how badly another team desires his services.

Green-Ellis isn't a high flight risk, but there is a potential for that risk to increase in the coming weeks. I give him a 50-50 shot at returning to the Patriots next season.  

James Ihedigbo: Not a Flight Risk

Every player has a specific strength unique to their particular personality or skill set. Wes Welker's strength is his ability to move the chains. Danny Woodhead's strength is in his small stature, which enables him to squirm through defenses. Patrick Chung's strength is in his love for brutality. Rob Gronkowski's strength is his massive frame mixed with his high degree of athleticism.

James Ihedigbo's strength is in his ability to stay on the field and provide a consistent presence on defense. He isn't an elite safety, but he's a good safety. Nothing wrong with that.

In 2011, Ihedigbo started 14 games and clocked 69 tackles. In the playoffs, he added another 20 tackles to his resume. He also gave us a nice sack to enjoy in the AFC Championship.

Anyone who sacks Joe Flacco deserves a little love from Patriot Nation. And considering Ihedigbo is a rather low-end dollar figure on the books, there's absolutely no reason not to bring him back. He seems extremely happy playing for the Patriots, which would make his return to New England a win-win situation all around.