2012 NFL Free Agency Market Watch: Observations for Every AFC East Team, Feb. 16

As we draw closer to 2012 free agency and the official start of the NFL offseason, news has begun filing in about key free agents such as Patriots receiver Wes Welker, Bills receiver Stevie Johnson and others.

And with "ManningWatch" in full swing, could Rex Ryan really be keeping his mouth shut about it all? Here's a roundup of today's observation around the AFC East.

 

New England Patriots: A Perfect Scenario for Welker?

There will come a crossroads in the contract negotiations between Welker and the Patriots. There is simply no other player in the NFL quite like him, so it's hard to build a contract that works for both sides. 

The bottom line: Welker is as important to the team as the team is to Welker. ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss crafted a deal for Welker that works for both sides.

Reiss brings up several valid points in his piece:

• Welker will be 31 years old at the start of the 2012 season;
• The Patriots have the upper hand in negotiations because of the option of the franchise tag;
• The Patriots want to avoid using the franchise tag on Welker just as badly as Welker doesn't want to be tagged;
• The per-year number is far less important than the guaranteed money.

It's no mystery that both sides want to get this deal done, and it's hard to envision Welker leaving the team. The team may hold the advantage in the contract negotiations, but Welker's impact on the offense is immeasurable, and probably irreplaceable. 

 

New England Patriots: Brandon Lloyd May Not Be out of the Question

Player agent Tom Condon was the key factor behind the holdout of tight end Benjamin Watson, the team's first-round pick in 2006. The two sides couldn't agree on the length of the deal, and Condon had to fire himself in order for the deal to finally get done.

The Patriots haven't dealt with Condon since.

That's why, when news broke that free-agent wide receiver Brandon Lloyd had signed with Condon, many felt that spelled the end of any chance the Patriots had to sign him.

Not so fast, says Condon, who is open to negotiating with the Patriots for the services of Lloyd according to Ron Borges of The Boston Herald.

"Both sides know how this works," Condon said [Wednesday] from St. Louis. "If they have an interest they call up and tell you when free agency starts or they meet you at the combine or whenever. We both know what Brandon is. He's a smart, explosive receiver. He's a player who is going to get offers. ...[If] he wants to go to the team that pays him the most money, wonderful. If he wants to go to a team that pays him less but where he feels there’s better opportunity for success, wonderful. He’ll make that decision."

The relationship between the Patriots and Condon may be frosty, to say the least, but if there were ever a time for the two sides to warm up to each other, this is it. Lloyd wants to be with the Patriots; the Patriots want Lloyd; Condon has admitted that he will respect his client's wishes.

It's a win-win-win.

 

Buffalo Bills: Stevie Johnson Deal Approaching?

Stevie Johnson's future with the team—and his worth to them—has been the topic of much debate, but the two sides just got a gauge for how each feels about the situation. According to the Buffalo News, the Bills and Stevie Johnson have exchanged proposals on a new deal and will get together at the combine to work out the details.

Johnson was the team's leading receiver in 2011. He has eclipsed 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons and has quickly emerged as one of the top receivers in the league. 

Does he deserve to be paid like one of the elite receivers in the NFL? Probably not. Would the Bills, given their current depth issues at wide receiver, be foolish to let him walk? Absolutely.

 

New York Jets: Rex Ryan Mum on Peyton Manning

Although it's early in the offseason, Rex Ryan has kept a lid on his usual boisterous comments (well, until Wednesday). One topic that has been popular in New York is the potential free agency of Peyton Manning.

It shouldn't exactly be considered blasphemy to say that the Jets would be upgrading at quarterback if they were to acquire Manning, but in lieu of another fine, Ryan declined comment on Manning according to Kevin Armstrong of the New York Daily News.

The coach eschewed questions related to his starting quarterback. He referred to Mark Sanchez as an "ascending" talent with a "bright future," but he punted when questioned whether the Jets would pursue Peyton Manning if the quarterback is cut by Indianapolis. Ryan cited league rules that restrict coaches from commenting on players under contract with other teams.

"I've paid enough fines this year," Ryan said.

Mark Sanchez may not be the answer for the Jets at quarterback, but the Jets simply aren't a quarterback away from being a championship contender. They have a lot of holes to fill, including right tackle—and if someone gets a clean shot on Manning, that could be the end of his career considering the nature of his neck injury.

 

Miami Dolphins: Trimming Some Fat?

As mentioned above, the future of Manning has caused some unrest among fanbases in the NFL, and among the most anxious are Dolphins fans, who have been starved for franchise-caliber talent at quarterback since the days of Dan Marino drew to a close 12 years ago. They have some cap space, but if they're going to go after Manning, they'll probably need to make a little more.

Have no fear: Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post has an excellent breakdown of the cap numbers for every player on the roster. There are several players that he believes could, or should be restructured by the team.

Other players with cap numbers that could make them targets are safety Yeremiah Bell, who will be 34 in a couple of weeks and has the fourth-highest cap number ($6.2 million); running back Reggie Bush ($6 million), defensive lineman Randy Starks ($5 million), defensive end Tony McDaniel ($4.157 million) and receiver Davone Bess ($3.033 million).

My observation: This reminds me a lot of what the Jets did last year to attempt to land cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. They restructured deals for linebacker Bart Scott, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and others.

The Dolphins need to be careful that they don't disrespect some of their better players, like Bush and Starks.

It's not easy, but if it were, anyone could be a GM. Even me.

Follow @ErikFrenz