2012 NFL Mock Draft: Should Colts, Jim Irsay Be Absolutely Sold on Andrew Luck?

Is there ever any such thing as a sure thing in the NFL draft?

This weekend’s report from ESPN.com’s Chris Mortensen that the Indianapolis Colts are committed to using the No. 1 pick in the draft this year to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck leads to the question: Isn’t it too soon to commit to a player in the draft?

To be sure, Luck has had amazing success with Stanford, leading the Cardinal to 12-1 and 11-2 records the last two seasons.

But what about Robert Griffin III from Baylor? This isn’t to say that Griffin is better than Luck, but after a one-win season doesn’t Indianapolis owe it to itself to do due diligence to see if either of these guys could be a once-in-a-generation player?

Griffin’s performance in the Alamo Bowl against Washington in the Bears’ first bowl win in two decades merits at least that much consideration.

Let’s put it another way—do you want a repeat of the 1983 draft or a repeat of the 2005 draft?

Back in 1983, John Elway was the first pick in the draft by the Colts (who then traded him to Denver) and Dan Marino was an afterthought. Both wound up in the Super Bowl and in the Hall of Fame.

Back in 2005, San Francisco could have sent a cab across the bay to get Cal’s Aaron Rodgers. Instead, the 49ers fixated early on Ohio State’s Alex Smith. Now Smith is a middle-of-the-road QB, admittedly in the playoffs for the first time, and Rodgers has a Super Bowl title in his back pocket and has a terrific chance to repeat. And Green Bay should send the 49ers thanks and an homage weekly.

The point is that franchise quarterbacks are more valuable than any other position in the current NFL setup, and the Colts, who have known almost unlimited success with Peyton Manning, know that as well as anyone.

Drafting first is not a position you can afford to make a mistake with. From the 1983 draft, Elway and Marino (and Jim Kelly, too) went on to carry franchises. The three of them combined to start 10 times in Super Bowls.

In the 2005 draft, Rodgers has joined their ranks as a franchise guy. Smith has started most of the time for San Francisco since being drafted, but a franchise quarterback he isn’t.

For the Colts to make that kind of a decision on the guy they’ll draft in January is just dumb at any level, and that’s not the only reason to sit back and wait.

The man who drafted Manning and built the Colts into a consistent power, Bill Polian, has been sent packing, and his replacement hasn’t been named.

For owner Jim Irsay to make a blanket decision on Luck over Griffin without any input from the man who will have to mold the Colts down the road makes no sense.

And here’s a third thought: What’s the rush? Luck may wind up being the right guy. But why not use the time at hand to be sure?