NFL Playoff Picture: Why Green Bay Packers Won't Make It Back to Super Bowl

With their commanding 35-21 win over the Chicago Bears Sunday night, the defending champion Green Bay Packers wrapped up the NFC’s top overall seed and coveted home-field advantage throughout the NFL playoffs.

With just one loss on their otherwise pristine slate, the Packers may indeed be one of the NFL’s best teams, but the upcoming playoffs present a new challenge for Aaron Rodgers and crew.

Winning the regular season may be one thing, but the Packers won’t be back in the Super Bowl this season.

The NFC Is Stacked

Entering the 2011 regular season, the defending champion Green Bay Packers were considered clear Super Bowl front-runners, loaded with talent and coming off one of the most dominant postseason runs of the last decade.

Chasing perfection for much of the season, the Packers remain the NFC’s best, but the rise in talent throughout the conference this season has made postseason victory no easy task for the champs.

After falling to the Packers on opening night, the New Orleans Saints have looked unstoppable, featuring the league’s top aerial attack led by quarterback Drew Brees, who broke Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record Monday night.

On the other hand, what the San Francisco 49ers lack offensively, they more than make up for on the other side of the ball, posting one of the best defensive campaigns in NFL history.

The Detroit Lions, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are all capable opponents, and the Atlanta Falcons, last year’s No. 1 seed, are as dangerous offensively as anyone.

Offensive Line Concerns

One of the Packers’ lone offensive weaknesses this season has been their pass-protection inconsistencies.

Dealing with injuries to starting tackles Chad Clifton, Bryan Buluga and backup Derek Sherrod (who was placed on injured reserve last week), the Packers have been forced to shuffle their starting five countless times this season, and their lack of chemistry has shown through. Since losing Clifton in Week 5, the line has given up over three sacks per game, one of the worst rates in the NFL.

As both the Giants and Kansas City Chiefs have shown this season, the Packers are beatable when the defense generates pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With the potential to face pass-rush specialists like Dallas’ DeMarcus Ware, San Francisco’s Aldon Smith and New York’s Jason Pierre-Paul, the Packers can’t afford to be understaffed in January.

While Clifton is expected to return this week, no timetable has been set for Buluga.

Weak Running Game

Very few teams in NFL history have seen the success that the Green Bay Packers have these past two seasons with as weak of a running game as they possess.

While the Packers continue to lead the league in scoring behind Rodgers' career-high 45 touchdowns this season, the putrid rushing attack of Ryan Grant and oft-injured James Starks makes the Packers severely one-dimensional.

With the potential for two January games at Lambeau Field, the running game will be even more important.

Last season it was Starks that broke out, coming on strong late in the season and bursting for 123 yards in their first-round matchup. His play not only gave the Packers another weapon, but it also forced defenses to stay true on play-action pass attempts, making the passing attack even more difficult to stop.

The Packers don’t have that this year.

Front Seven's Inability To Generate Pressure

Last season, the Packers had a top front seven, led by linebacker Clay Matthews and defensive end Cullen Jenkins, who paced the line with seven sacks.

That has not been the case this season.

After letting Jenkins walk this offseason, the Packers defense has simply been unable to generate any sort of pressure in 2011. The line has combined for just six sacks, and no one commands a double-team anymore.

While Green Bay’s ability to score at will continues to be its best defense, an efficient pass rush is critical to slowing down a top passing game. Meanwhile, the NFC is loaded this postseason with quarterback talent: Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith and either Tony Romo or Eli Manning.

Lack of Momentum

Unlike the NBA and MLB, which combat luck with multi-game playoff series, the NFL’s playoff structure means that sometimes it’s the team with momentum—not necessarily the best team—that wins. The Packers can certainly attest to this after squeaking into last year’s playoffs as the No. 6 seed by virtue of a tiebreaker.

With all of the injuries that have mounted against them this past month, including losing the aforementioned Buluga and top receiver Greg Jennings for a few weeks, some of the team’s best players may go three or four weeks without seeing the gridiron if the Packers choose to sit starters this Sunday.

Meanwhile, the surging Detroit Lions have won three straight as quarterback Matthew Stafford has passed for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over that stretch. New Orleans has won its last seven, with Brees passing for 300 yards in six of them, and San Francisco has held its opponents to 20 points or less in 10 of its last 11.

In a game of matchups and momentum, Green Bay will be forced to rely on pure talent—something that could backfire down the line.