Felix Hernandez: Why Seattle Won't Be Dealing King Felix Anytime Soon

If you listen to talk radio, read Bleacher Report or other sports websites or spend any sort of time following baseball, in particular the Yankees and Red Sox, then you've heard this before. 

"The ________ ( insert Yankees or Red Sox here) should trade a bunch of their top prospects to Seattle and then they'll send us Felix Hernandez."

Both teams, the Yankees and Red Sox, have a shortage of starting pitching, both teams are highly competitive annually and both teams have a segment of their respective fanbases that can't fathom that any top player wouldn't want to play for them. It's vaguely reminiscent of that scene in Seinfeld when Jerry's mom can't believe someone didn't like him.  

The next time any fan, or journalist, or prognosticator starts to dream up a scenario in which the Mariners trade King Felix, stop and ask yourself this:

"Why in the world would Seattle do this?"

First of all, Felix Hernandez is young and if you take a look at the Angels and Rangers, there's no reason to expect any single move to result in Seattle contending over the next few seasons. The Mariners' farm system is loaded with other pitching prospects, too. Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are all likely top-of-the-rotation starters. 

The bulk of deals proposed for Felix are often centered around a team sending back a package of prospects. If you're acquiring prospects, then why give up proven major league talent? Especially when pitchers command more than hitters at all levels of professional baseball.

Most people would at this point reference the recent Mat Latos trade or the Zack Geinke deal from last winter. The problem with this is that neither one of those guys is as good as Felix. Latos has had one year and one great second half of major league baseball. He's probably going to be very good, but he's 24 years old. By the time King Felix was 24, he had won a Cy Young Award and finished second in the voting for another.

By the time the Royals dealt Zack Greinke last winter, he was 26 years old. He had won a Cy Young, but he had also had some fairly severe anxiety issues that at one point threatened his entire career. So both of these pitchers were not in the same class as King Felix.

One could say that both Kansas City and San Diego made out pretty well from these deals. Of course, San Diego got a great haul of prospects, but none of them have actually done much at the major league level. Edinson Volquez might reinvent himself into the dominant pitcher he was in 2009, but he also might not.

Kansas City's haul for Grienke has paid some dividends. Alcides Escobar had a nice season at shortstop for Kansas City. His offense wasn't great, but his glove looked very good. The Royals will know a lot more about this trade in the upcoming 2012 season since Lorenzo Cain is as of now the likely Opening Day center fielder. The two minor league pitchers in the deal are still in the minors and coming off somewhat unspectacular seasons.   

For Seattle, there's no reason to give up on a guy that is a proven dominant starter at the big league level for guys who are still in someone else's minor league system.

For instance, in Boston, forget Will Middlebrooks, Bryce Brentz or Ryan Lavarnway. In New York, Jesus Montero is a fantastic prospect, but he's still a prospect. If the Yanks want to deal him, then ask for one of Seattle's unproven but highly-regarded talents. The Yankees also posses some of their own highly-touted pitching prospects, but that's the Seattle minor league system's strength as well.

The reality is that there are only two players between the Red Sox and Yankees who fit the description of some form of equivalent to Felix Hernandez. Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury. That's really it. There's tons of talent on both teams, but as far as key positions, current and future performance and contracts go, those are the only two guys who would serve as valid starting points for a Felix Hernandez deal. Unfortunately, they both come with their own set of issues.

The money. That's because money is often the other logical reason given for Seattle being such fools to not deal Felix Hernandez. That logic goes like this.

"Seattle is just going to lose him to free agency; they may as well trade him for something before they just lose him."

That logic is also flawed. If it were all about the money for Felix, then he wouldn't have signed the contract extension that he signed when he signed it. He signed that before the 2010 season, but after the 2009 season, a season in which he went 19-5 with a 2.49 earned run average as a 23-year-old starter.

Sometimes players do make choices based on things other than just money. Everyone has heard about the Pujols deal this offseason. Yet Jared Weaver signed a very reasonable contract extension for a team that could obviously afford to pay him quite a bit more this past summer. Weaver re-upped for five years and $85 million. That's not exactly chump change but for a No. 1 starter who's still under 30 years old, that would seem to be about $20-$30 million dollars below market value at the very least.

In addition, even if the Yankees or Red Sox were willing to part with Cano or Ellsbury, then those players will also eventually become free agents and unlike Felix, they hold no real loyalty to the Seattle area. They'd command stratospheric contracts on the open market and if you think that Seattle can't afford Felix, then what makes you think they can afford to re-sign Cano or Ellsbury to a any sort of long-term deal.

Seattle also plays in Safeco Field. It's not exactly a launching pad for home runs. If they're going to win there, it's going to be because of their pitching. They need more bats, no question about it, but it's probably only one big bat and then just surround him with a few 20 home run guys and some guys that get on base.

Score four or five runs a game and let the pitching hold the opponent to three or four or less. That's their recipe for success, and it's not going to be fulfilled by dealing an ace like King Felix.

Maybe that's why no matter who proposes that the Mariners trade King Felix, the answer is always the same from Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik: "No."

At least that's what he said to Ken Rosenthal, who recently penned a column in which he actually called the Seattle general manager and presented his own case to deal Felix.

The bulk of the case was his comparison of Seattle to San Diego, Kansas City and Tampa. There are flaws in that comparison, though, and Rosenthal even acknowledges them in his column. Seattle isn't as hampered by payroll as those other teams are. Remember the Mariners are owned by Nintendo. They're not exactly scraping for pennies. They might not be able to afford the types of payrolls that the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers can, but they can spend some money. They haven't as of late, but the smart money is that they will if they see the right place to spend it.

More importantly, with the talent they have in the minors, they could probably fashion a deal for some top-hitting prospects right now. The better question might be why they're not doing that?

As for King Felix, he's probably not going anywhere. There's little evidence to suggest that the Mariners have talked to anyone but the media in regards to Felix Hernandez.

This could all backfire of course. The people who say Seattle isn't taking advantage of his current value could be proven right. Then again, Felix could take a look around the major league landscape and decide to sign another contract extension in a year or two and never enter the free-agent market.

Seattle should probably trade some of their young pitching, but not Felix Hernandez. He's nearly irreplaceable.