NBA Free Agency: A Realistic Look at the Miami Heat Rumors

As soon as the NBA lockout "ended" (we're still waiting for the new CBA to be ratified) talk instantly started about who the Miami Heat should sign to improve their team as much as possible.

Of course, they have holes at the point guard and center spots, but they may look elsewhere, as they can pave over their point guard spot by having LeBron James and Dwyane Wade run the point. Starting center, however, continues to be a question.

The problem I have with the frenzy of rumors and flat-out guesses over who Miami may be targeting, talking about, thinking about or even just Googling is that they don't all make sense.

There are a handful of rumors that I have to go ahead and debunk, but before I get to all of that, I'll go over the Miami Heat salary situation right now and how it looks under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Miami's Salary and the New CBA

As I write this today, the Miami Heat are on the hook for $65 million in contracts that are already signed. With the salary cap at $58 million, they have just the mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception which in their basic forms are $5 and $1.2 million contracts.

Adding these two contracts this season would put the Heat at a payroll of just under $72 million, which makes them taxpayers, but that's not a problem at this point.

The problem is that if they use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which is the full $5 million), the new CBA forbids them from amassing a payroll of more than $74.3 million for the rest of the season. 

Now, it doesn't seem like a huge deal because those two contracts put them at $72 million, right?

Wrong.

That $72 million is without adding Mario Chalmers (who has a qualifying offer of $1.09 million but will probably cost around $3 million or more to keep) or James Jones (another sharpshooter they were hoping to keep. Also, this number wouldn't include whatever they will end up paying rookie Norris Cole.

Miami seems determined to use the full MLE in hopes of signing a legitimate player, as selling a $5 million per year contract is much easier than a $3 million per year (the tax-payer MLE) contract.

Now, the idea going around (which is a very likely occurrence) would be for Miami to use their amnesty on Mike Miller, freeing up $5 million for next season. This would then give Miami room to use both exceptions, re-sign Calmers and James Jones (who is essentially a cheap Miller) and have some wiggle room below that $74.3 million cap. 

That wiggle room would give them a bit of space (probably around $2 million after signing rookies as well) to sign veterans to minimum contracts.

So, what can we make of the biggest trade rumors we've heard swirling around Miami?

Greg Oden

Likelihood of playing in Miami: Already not happening.

The latest trade rumor coming from around the Internet is that Miami is interested in oft-injured center Greg Oden.

Now it looks as if Oden is ready to accept Portland's qualifying offer.

Miami would only have been able to offer the $5 million mid-level exception to Oden, which is already less than what Portland's qualifying offer is at nearly $9 million.

I hear people yelling already: "What about a sign-and-trade?"

Well, the best offer Miami could put on the table would be Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem and possibly some second-round draft picks (they have no first-rounders to offer until 2017 at the earliest).

If word gets out that Portland is accepting trade offers, you'd better bet that they'll get better offers than Miller, Haslem and some second-round draft picks.

Nene

Likelihood of playing in Miami: I'll eat my hat

One of the early rumors to bee-bop around the net was that Miami was taking a look and kicking the tires on Nene.

A straight-up signing of Nene is as unlikely as me getting a contract offer from Miami (although I'll play for the league minimum, no problem), as a $5 million deal would be about $10 million below market value for Nene. I would expect he'd be willing to take a pay cut, but not one that substantial. 

As far as a trade goes, they would have the same Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller and second rounders/first rounders half a decade from now to offer. However, I still don't see that as enough for Miami to get Nene, as there are bound to be better trade offers pouring in.

The only way I see Nene in black and red by Christmas is if he tells Denver that he'll only sign a deal for a sign-and-trade if it lands him in Miami or if he takes an historic pay cut.

Samuel Dalembert

Likelihood of playing in Miami: Now we're talking.

I would wager that if Samuel Dalembert gets a call five minutes after the new CBA gets ratified offering him a $5 million contract, he would take it.

Sure, it's a huge pay cut from last season, but he was overpaid a season ago and would probably be willing to take that pay cut.

Dalembert would be a good addition to the team, as it would give them a legitimate defensive center.

The only problem with Dalembert would be if he wanted a shot at one last big contract, in which case he would be looking for more than just the mid-level exception.

Grant Hill or Shane Battier

Likelihood of playing in Miami: Only if Sammy Dalembert doesn't get signed.

Another two names getting thrown into the Miami rumor machine are two veteran defensive monsters, Grant Hill and Shane Battier.

Obviously, out of Dalembert, Hill and Battier, they would only be able to sign one unless Hill or Battier decided to take a pay cut.

Of these two, I would have to imagine that Battier would be their first choice, as he has been a better player over the past few season, but they are both great defenders.

Michael Redd

Likelihood of playing in Miami: Makes sense, so why not.

Michael Redd has been linked to the Miami Heat for obvious reasons. He's old, he's cheap and he would probably be willing to sign for cheap for a shot at a ring.

Miami would probably only have to give Redd a veteran minimum contract, which would allow them to save their bi-annual exception for someone else, or just keep it for next season.

Redd might be a bit too risky—as he's been injured for what seems like the past decade—but if he passes a physical then he would be a good fit for the Heat.

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