MLB Free Agents 2012: Judging Reactions to the Jonathan Papelbon Signing

Unlike most of Ruben Amaro's big moves over the last couple of years, the recent acquisition of closer Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million, instead of Ryan Madson, seems closer to split evenly between two sides. In addition there's also a less populated third side, which was to forgo both relievers and instead use the money to fill other holes and go with a cheaper closer option. 

In this deal, I believe you can legitimize arguments on any of the sides. The problem is, few do that. Instead, they opt for either using factually wrong information, personal emotions or tired cliches that hold no merit or proof. It's when people use these types of arguments that really irks me.

This article is a collection of such examples, followed by a more in-depth review of my opinion.

Note: All comments from reactions by Phillies Nation readers.

Pro-Papelbon Comments

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"i love it personally hes got more closer experience and hes done it in the postseason. i wasnt fully sold on madson he always looks scared and his fastball velocity has gone down over the years plus i dont like scott boras clients they usally shit the bed after 1 career season and signing big deals just like jayson werth and rafael soriano"

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Going to leave the more closer experience comment for a bit later. When has Madson not done it in the playoffs? I can tell this is the type that supports ERA in small sample sizes as a way to judge a pitcher.

He's probably looked at Papelbon's 1.00 ERA in 25 postseason innings and thinks he's really that good. But looking deeper, he hasn't been as good as his ERA may suggest. Headlined by a .203 BABIP, he's been pretty fortunate.

Despite a low ground-ball rate, he's also been fortunate to not have been tagged by a homer. While his walk rate in the playoffs remains close to his career norm, his strikeouts drop considerably, by three strikeouts per nine innings. This has led to a very mediocre 3.92 xFIP and 3.52 SIERA. 

On the other hand, Madson's 2.31 ERA in 35 postseason innings, despite a .348 BABIP, isn't exactly slouching. Unlike Papelbon, Madson has raised his strikeouts in the playoffs by over three strikeouts per nine innings compared to his career numbers. While maintaining a similar walk rate and his ground-ball inducing ways, his 2.47 xFIP and 2.31 SIERA is much more impressive than Papelbon's.

The statement regarding his fastball velocity going down over the years is false. Last year Madson's average fastball velocity was the second highest of his career, behind his 2009 mark. 

As for Madson always looking scared, you'll find that the Phillies' fanbase has a lot of armchair psychologists, who knew. 

Jayson Werth was good for a few years before his big contract, and Soriano was not as good as his ERA suggested that offseason also. But the commenter wouldn't know this, obviously. For every player that he thinks has done that, there are others who have lived up to their deals. Greg Maddux turned out to be a pretty nice pitcher following his career year in 1992 and subsequent big contract.

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"Anyone who doesnt like this is stupid, he is way more proven then Madson"

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Such irony in that statement.

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"He's way better then madson"

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Since 2009...

Papelbon: 2.89 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 2.60 SIERA

Madson: 2.78, 2.74 FIP, 2.64 SIERA

...WAY better.

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"Think its a good deal. I look at is as a salary swap, add Paplebon remove Lidge for an extra million. Lidge made $11.5 mil last season and the Phils got nothing for that." 

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And they didn't learn anything from the Lidge ordeal? That money couldn't be more useful for extending Hamels or finding someone to play shortstop? 

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"Lol this is wat every ban wagon fan said about lidge ohh why we givein him 33 million coming off a horrible year and look what he did was perfect and won us a world championship soo ban wagon haters watch out dont be suprised if pap has a career year this year he does have 2 rings and the NL hasnt seen paps spilter and 97MPH FASTBALL!"

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He doesn't throw 97 MPH every fastball. He averaged 95 last year. Not exactly sure what horrible year he's referring to. The extension took place in mid-2008. He wasn't horrible in 2007. Like "wat" every desperate, ignorant fan does, they just make stuff up when attempting to prove a point. 

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"Im sorry for all you folks whining about madson.. but from my understanding....we resigned madson.. and the bullpen wasn't the greatest.. I think pap in the closer position and madson in that setup role will work out great.. and we all know...even if..knock on wood..if pap gets hurt madson can make the adjustment to closer.."

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Tad out of the loop. But that is exactly one of the reasons why you don't give a reliever a possible five-year deal!

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"Madson's Brain 
That is all one needs to know!"

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I extremely doubt Red Sox would agree with that, but thank you for the input and extensive research, Freud.

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"These 'bad' contracts are really a product of the market. A GM often has to take 1-2 years more than he'd like and hope it works out to have a shot at getting a top player. I agree with what someone said here: I think it's the first two years of the Papelbon contract that are really most important. If he falls off after that but has a great 2012/2013 the Phillies will live with that."

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Damn these other GMs for putting a gun to Amaro's head, forcing him to overpay and overextend. You don't create edges against other teams by overpaying for a player, or even paying for what the market dictates.

You create edges by finding undervalued commodities or where other teams are being shortsighted. This was the basic principle of "Moneyball." And have fun living with that hypothetical scenario as you'd be forced to sacrifice other good players (Victorino or Hamels perhaps).

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"Madson was / is still unproven at crunch time. All the analysis is moot. The fact is Madson looked shaky versus the Cards. More importantly - it's time to make changes and send a signal to Rollins and others that not winning means not playing here. This is the right move. Time to shake things up."

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More Frasier Cranes. And how is Madson unproven? If he is so scared of crunch time, how come, since 2009,  his 3.02 xFIP in high leverage situations is better than Papelbon's 3.22 xFIP? And for looking so shaky against the Cardinals, his six strikeouts, zero walks, and 55 percent ground-ball rate (0.32 SIERA), suggest otherwise.

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"Madson turned down 4 yrs, 44 mil so we got a WAY better player for only a lil bit more. Papelbon is proven, mad dog only had one yr of proof."

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See above. And there's no evidence Madson turned down that deal.

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"for a extra 6 million dollars, the phillies got a true star closer, nothing against Madson, but he had yet to prove to be a solid stopper, until this past season, he could not close the door."

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It remains to be seen how much Madson actually signs for. What was rumored may have been a smoke screen for all we know. Madson has proved for a few years now how good of a pitcher he is. He was not given ample opportunity previous years because the Phillies were obligated to keep going with their overpaid, "proven" closer.   

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"That didn’t take long – good grief! JP’s got the mental approach – but he’d better be healthy. Hoping for the best because when he’s good, he’s that good. Closer contracts scare me – always."

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At least someone out there that is actually weary of the exorbitant amount paid to closers. Not that I believe blown saves is a great judge of skill, but where was this superior mental approach when he blew eight saves in 2010 as the closer? Or the six in 2006 or the five in 2008.  

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"Papelbon 217 career saves 29 blown saves Madson 50 career saves 26 blown saves Numbers don't lie!!"

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Another person who lacks a basic understanding of how a blown save can occur. Non-closers get credited with blown saves just as closers do. For example, if a reliever comes in the sixth inning with a one-run lead and it gets tied up, it's considered a blown save. Heck, Jonny Venters blew four last year while only saving five—what a bum. Give me Danys Baez anyday!

Yes, that's sarcasm.

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"Yesterday on DNL, Jim Salisbury alluded, sort of what I have been saying, that the Phillies were worried a bit about Madson's mental make up and readiness as a closer. Anybody who thinks Madson is a legitimate closer based in one season has to be nuts. He's been a good reliever, but there is a big different between a good reliever and a closer. See Octavio Dotel with the Astros after they traded Billy Wagner. I'm not saying he won't be. But I'm not ready to say he's a premier closer yet."

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Yes, even writers aren't immune to such armchair psychology. What on earth did teams possibly do without the advent of closers? How did teams ever hold onto late leads without one guy who has a "closer mentality?" Well, they won at pretty much the same rate.

From an old Forbes Magazine article:

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Yet in the 20 seasons since LaRussa's brainstorm, teams holding late leads have won at about the same rate they did in the 20 seasons before. Since 1988, teams leading after eight innings have won at a .951 clip, according to Baseball-Reference.com and STATS Inc., compared to .948 from 1968 to 1987.

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I find it quite ironic that Dotel's season in question looked eerily similar to Papelbon's in 2010.

"she 

"check out his stats for last year people...pay special attention to the stat that matters with closers...WHIP...then look at his career WHIP. Too many fans think with their hearts instead of their heads. Paplebon has been doing this successfully for years. Madsen had one good year. If Madsen or for that matter Rollins, want to be a Phillie then they don't need to ask for OMG money. Both will make a lot more money in one year then I will ever make in a lifetime."

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This is news to me. Cause you know, WHIP can't be affected at all by the defense behind you and BABIP or anything. Not to mention, not all hits are created equal. Since Papelbon is much more of a fly-ball pitcher, he will give up less total hits (which will help make his WHIP look better) at the expense of more homers.

Pro-Madson Comments

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 "papelbon was hurt half the year last year we need a everyday shortstop and leftfielder"

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 That's odd, because he pitches his normal amount of innings and has never been on the disabled list.

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"Redsox obviously let him go for a reason. Just sayin. Sick of phillies picking up everyones leftovers"

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They let him go because they know it's insane to give $50 million to a reliever. He's not exactly a leftover in the mold of a Wilson Valdez or Danys Baez. 

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"They paid too much money, and his fastball isn't fooling hitters like it used to. Some A.L. Scouts said that he needs to develop 1-2 other decent pitches to make his fastball look good again. They need to fix SS and LF, and sign Michael Cuddyer. Cole Hamels also needs a new contract."

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I find this odd because his average fastball velocity was right on par with his career norms. On Joe Lefkowitz's Pitch FX website, Papelbon posted his lowest contact percentage on his fastball since 2008 (the last date range his site goes back). His fastball is currently still great, at least last year it was. Whether or not it will remain good in two, three or four years is another question. That's when he needs another good pitch. 

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"I do not like this signing. He's washed up!"

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He was beginning to trend that way in 2009 and 2010, but 2011 was arguably his best fielding independent year of his career. 1.58 SIERA is pretty silly. 

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"Paplebon??? Really? He is sooo stupid and annoying...he isntvery good either, all he does is throw fastballs and hope he beats you with that"

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He may be annoying, but saying he isn't good is just ignorant. Yes, he does throw almost all fastballs, but thus far, he beats most guys with it. That constitutes more than just hoping. Wilson Valdez throwing fastballs is more along the lines of hoping. 

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"we just signed an old pitcher who has been on the downside of his career for a few years, for more money than it would have taken to sign madson (a closer who actually closes games)"

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See above for the downside of his career. He's younger than Madson.

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"No it didn't madson is the key piece to the phillies bullpen sign him not some old fart. I would rather have Jamie moyer"

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Again, he's younger than Madson. As for the Moyer comment, in the words of the wrestler, the Miz, "Really? Really? Really?"

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"I agree with tim this is a bad move,although his save percentage is 88% his blown save percentage is to high,take this year for instance,yes the red sox as a team fell apart but there were many games that they should have won but didnt because of a blown save by the man that they just signed to a 4 yr 50 million deal instead of paying 6 million less to resign madson"

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What? You cannot say his save percentage is good but his blown save percentage is bad when the two are related entirely to each other. Papelbon didn't blow many saves this year, just three. 

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"50 mil...that's a lot of money for 4 yrs and unproven as a closer in the national league. i like paps, but his contract could be a bit much and he could earn up to 60 mil. I guess we'll have to wait and see."

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This is stretching it with the unproven/proven talk. In that case you can make an argument that no one in baseball is proven in another environment, which is absurd. After a couple of games, I guess Papelbon (or any other closer) would not be a proven closer on a Tuesday, after 10:30 PM, with a four-run lead, with the temperature above 75 degrees against a team from Arizona. 

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"Well Madson is good and young Papelbon is good but old the Phils need more young players"

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Papelbon DOB: 11/23/1980

Madson DOB: 08/28/1980

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"He fell apart though, its like he's damaged goods. I will have to see him perform first before I express whether im happy or not, im leaving the door open for him to impress me but if he falters well than it will go the opposite"

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Woah, there Milquetoast, don't go out on a limb too far there. At least others have taken a stand. Whether or not they back their convictions accurately or in the future is another story. No closer is perfect.

Would you have said the same about Mariano Rivera after 2001?

My Side of the Signing: Madson vs. Papelbon

Like other articles I've read on this website, I agree that this deal, and closers' salaries in general, is too much. The funds could be used much more appropriately, such as finding a shortstop, taking a chance on a riskier, cheaper reliever, extending Hamels or signing a quality bench guy not named Valdez or Martinez. 

For $50 million over four years (possibly five), Amaro is banking on Papelbon performing at last year's level rather that the 2009-10 version that suffered from control issues. He was certainly dominant in 2011 and was one of the best relievers in baseball. Led by a strong 8.7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, his 1.58 SIERA was the second best in baseball.

However, if he reverts back to that form, he's still a good reliever, but certainly not one of the best as his salary would dictate. The safe assumption is he lands somewhere in the middle of the last two seasons. If he does, and produces a 2.1-2.3 fWAR type season, his value ranges from $10.5 million to $11.5 million (assuming $5 million per win).

You can even additionally argue that due to pitching in higher leverage situations and paying a slight premium for a player near the top of his position, that that value could rise above those numbers. 

My problem isn't with him as a player or the salary, at least for a couple seasons. My dispute comes with the risk of the third year and beyond.

Amaro and Phillies fans witnessed firsthand the injury dangers that come with aging relievers and multiyear deals, with Lidge being the prime example. Papelbon has never been on the disabled list, which helps lessen that risk. But it's Papelbon's skill set rather than injury that worries me in the coming years.

He's primarily a fastball pitcher who likes pitching up in the zone. Over his career, he throws the fastball just over 75 percent of the time while only occasionally throwing a slider and a splitter. The trouble is, when that fastball slows down, which it usually does as pitchers enter their 30s, more of those fastballs up in the zone will make contact and land for homers. 

When each are at their best, Papelbon is the more dominant pitcher, but Madson has been the more consistent pitcher over the last three years. In that time, his SIERA's range has been 0.73 while Papelbon's has been 1.60. In addition, Madson's skill set should lend itself to longevity. 

While Madson's fastball velocity is close to Papelbon's (one MPH slower on average), he does not rely on it as his best pitch. Instead, his less-stressful, dominant changeup should make him a safer bet staying closer to his peak than Papelbon as they enter their mid-30s.