How Would Shooting Guard Arron Afflalo Look in a Chicago Bulls Uniform?

Arron Afflalo, perhaps more than any player, has been talked about as the ideal shooting guard for the Chicago Bulls. In some ways asking how he would look in a Bulls uniform is like wondering whether cream cheese would work on a bagel, or whether peanut butter and jelly could work together on a sandwich. 

When I had an opportunity to talk to Dwyane Wade earlier this summer, I asked him which players gave him the most trouble defensively, and the player he mentioned was Afflalo. He mentioned his persistence and, if I recall correctly, used the word, "annoys you" to describe his tenacity. 

Such a player would fit ideally into the Bulls defensive scheme. In fact, I'm sure that Tom Thibodeau would love the notion of having a player like Afflalo on his team. His entire defensive scheme is based on hustle and trying to disrupt what other teams are trying to do offensively. 

There were  questions about Afflalo I had which concerned me. His defense is great.

His offense and availability were the larger issues. If it's not realistic, then it's kind of like dreaming what it would be like by that new Viper I've always wanted. It's just setting up myself for disappointment. 

Then I read the SI interview, which is equivalent to a newspaper ad that says "Brand New Viper, $399.99." Suddenly the thought of Afflalo in Bulls read isn't so unrealistic. 

This is the entire part of the interview that grabbed me, copied and pasted:

"

Afflalo: The way I moved forward at first was that I just planned on returning to Denver. That was just my feel, because my role had grown so much last season from a leadership standpoint. I felt it was almost my team. I felt a sense of responsibility. But obviously as the offseason goes on and changes are made, you have to weigh your options. My gut at the end of the season was that I’d be back in Denver, but you have to keep your options open. And for me, it’s all about winning.

 

SI.com: And the thing is, most of the teams set to have lots of cap room are not going to be contenders next season. The best teams are all going to be over the cap, meaning they might only be able to offer you the mid-level exception. Do you think you’re worth more than that? How do you weigh all the variables?

Afflalo: I’d hate to say what I think I’m worth and end up disrespecting someone who says I’m not worth that amount — or disrespecting myself by saying I’m only worth a certain amount. Do I feel I’m worth more than the mid-level? Of course. I know I’m going to continue to improve, and contracts don’t change once you sign them. So from that standpoint, of course you want to say you’re worth $8 million or $9 million, but as you said, when you look at where the contenders are sitting, you have to place a certain value on winning and the situation.

The bottom line is that if you’re a millionaire, you’re going to be fine.

SI.com: The Bulls could use some two-way punch at shooting guard. Have you thought about how you’d fit there?

Afflalo: Oh yeah, my agent [Sam Goldfeder] brought that up to me before the lockout. He definitely mentioned the Bulls as a dream that would be great for me based on fit.

SI.com: If there is a knock on your game at this point, it’s that you haven’t proved you can create your own shot consistently at the NBA level — whether it’s in isolation, on pick-and-rolls or whatever. If you look at the numbers, you haven’t used a very high percentage of your team’s possessions.

Afflalo: Yeah, my usage rate has been pretty low.

 

SI.com: Usage rate? You know the advanced stats, huh?

Afflalo: [Laughing] I’m a student of the game.

SI.com: Anyway — what about that criticism? It seemed to me last season, you showed a little more off the dribble, curling around screens, etc.

Afflalo: I was just kind of playing off of other guys for my entire career until they traded Carmelo and Chauncey [Billups], who tended to dominate the ball a little more. And that’s where I feel my growth is going to come — through opportunity. I haven’t quite gotten to show I can create, post up and be more of a playmaker for my teammates. It takes confidence in this league, but it also takes preparation and the chance to show that skill set. I have no doubts about my creative ability.

 

"

There are four things here that are extremely pertinent to Chicagoans. 

1. Winning is worth taking a cut in pay to him.
2. His agent is pushing Chicago and he likes the idea.
3. His usage rate is low. 

Essentially this means that it could work. That's the for sale sign. Allow me to explain why this is something that should have every Chicago fan doing a jig and singing "We're gonna beat Miami" We're gonna beat Miami!"

The Pay Can Work

There are a couple of things that are extremely encouraging that have happened. First, there's the likelihood that there will still be a mid-level exception, and it appears that it's possible that he would be willing to sign for that if he can have a shot a "'ship" as my friend and frequent commenter Cecil likes to call it. 

Furthermore with the amnesty clause in the new CBA, if push came to shove, the Bulls could buy out the suddenly expendable (or should I say ex-spendable) Kyle Korver. Afflalo is more than a sufficient enough three-point shooter that Korver would not be as essential as he is now. That would free up about $5.0 million from the payroll. 

If you trim that from the payroll, the $8.0 million that Afflalo would be looking at optimally becomes very realistic. Of course all of this depends on the final CBA, but, between what the Bulls could free up and what Afflalo would be willing to trim down to be on a contender, financially it could work. 

The Motivation Is There

In a lot of ways, agents are like parents in the NBA. Earlier this summer Goldfear was singging the tune of a re-signing with the Nuggets, and this is new news. Players tend to follow their agents', advice and if this is the advice Goldfear is giving, then yippee-yie-yay!  The agent is on board. 

When agents and the players are in agreement, it's not so much about whether it can happen but  how it can happen. It seems a lot of Afflalo's attachment to Denver was based on the team staying together, but with J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler signing in China, it appears that tune is changing. That gets Afflalo on board.

Furthermore, while Afflalo would be a restricted free agent, I think that there's the probability that Denver would be motivated to work out a deal for him as well. I don't think they want to have another star who is looking at the end of his contract to get out. They've had their fill of players "doing their time." That gets Denver on board. 

Chicago has assets and they have a couple of quality young players in Taj Gibson and Omer Asik. There's also the possibility that they could work Kyle Korver in with a sign and trade. The preference would be to keep at least one, if not both of the big men, as both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah have a tendency to get hurt. Giving up the ever increasingly valuable Charlotte pick might be enough to get away with a straight Korver and picks for the Afflalo deal. 

The important thing here is that all parties, Afflalo, Goldfear, the Bulls and the Nuggets would be motivated to working out a deal. It's realistic. This is why I've never looked at it seriously before. Now things are looking very different. 

Usage? What the Heck Does That Matter?

Here's the other part of the reason I was never excited about the Afflalo deal. I've always just looked at his per 36 numbers and transferred those into what he would do as a Bull. Afflalo is right though, his usage rate is low, and that has to be taken into account. 

Usage, for those who aren't aware of what it is, is the percent of possessions that a player ends while he's on the court. There are basically two ways that you can use a possession. You can either take a shot, or you can turn the ball over. 

Afflalo's usage rate is only 14.8 percent. Ideally, if he were with the Bulls his usage rate would be much higher. He'd be the second or third scoring option. Probably somewhere around 21-23 percent is a realistic estimate for his usage rate as a Bull. He could do that without taking that many shots away from Rose. 

Afflalo currently scores about 1.1 points per play offensively. On the Bulls, if you factor in their pace and a usage rate of about 22 percent that would translate to about 16 or 17 points per game if he were playing 36 minutes per game.  

(90.4 (pace) *.75 (36 minutes) * .225 (usage rate) * 1.1 (points per play)=16.7 for those that want to know where that number comes form.

That is compared to the roughly 10.4 points per game the current pair of Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer combined average. 

It would cut into Rose's attempts marginally, but not significantly. It would probably also mean though that Rose's possessions would be more efficient because Afflalo would add space. 

Afflalo shot a hefty .423 from three last year. Last year Rose had the highest percentage of his assists for threes of any point guard. That means that defenses would have to honor Afflalo, and that space would make it easier for Rose to drive to the rim, which is where he's most effective. 

Rose would in turn make Afflalo better by drawing defenses to himself when he drove, setting up Afflalo for the kick. 

Bagels and cream cheese. Peanut butter and jelly. Afflalo and Rose. 

It's not at all unrealistic to think that the Bulls could add four points a game to their offense without significantly changing their pace. 

Furthermore I was surprised when I started looking more at Afflalo's numbers to learn that not only is he a highly efficient scorer (.598 eFG%) he's also quite capable of creating his own shots. In fact, 29 percent of his field goals are unassisted. 

Finally Afflalo is able to score off the dribble. He scores about 24 percent of his points in the paint and 40 percent of those are unassisted. About 10 percent of his points come on isolation plays. Now granted these aren't numbers like Dwyane Wade's, but they show that the ability at least exists.

Bogans had one unassisted field goal last year. His average points per play in isolation was 0.17. He was 0-4 from the field on isolation plays. Afflalo's numbers a comparatively near infinite leap over what Bogans are. (Technically on isolation points it is an actual infinite leap since Bogans and zero). 

Having a player in the backcourt other than Rose who can score off the dribble is essential to breaking the kinds of traps that bothered Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They don't need a Hall of Fame shooting guard, but one who can actually take a defender off the dribble would be nice. 

Having one that Wade personally addressed as the most "annoying" (in a good way) defender in the league would be even nicer. 

Last year the Bulls scored 108.3 points per 100 possessions. That was good for 11th best in the league. It is a fairly conservative estimate to guess that adding Afflalo could be boost that number by three to four points. That would put the Bulls with the league leaders in offensive rating and they would be able to hold to the top spot in defensive rating at the same time. 

Cream cheese and bagels, peanut butter and jelly, Afflalo and Rose, rings and fingers. If you're not doing a jig by now, and singing some made up song about "We're Gonna Beat Miami," you need to read this article again. This could happen and if it does, the 'ship could happen. Let's just hope the lockout ends so that things can get set in motion!