The NFL Picks Column: Conference Championship Edition

NFL Conference Championship weekend. 

Patriots playing at home. Peyton Manning watching himself during the commercial breaks on TV from his couch.  Brett Favre with a chance to go to another Super Bowl.

And, most importantly, SeanMC has graduated from Analyst to Columnist here at Bleacher Report!

It just doesn’t get any better than this.

I’m assuming this promotion comes with a significant pay raise.  I’ll have to speak to the editors later this week.

(Who runs this place, anyway?)

I think 20 percent would be about right.

(What’s 20 percent of $0?)

To celebrate my promotion, I decided to go all classy and light up a fancy cigar (Don Pepin Garcia-Black label) and crack open an expensive bottle of wine (Sutter Home Merlot, bottled in the scenic…umm…Wal-Mart vineyards).

That’s right, a $10 cigar and a $4 bottle of wine.  Giddy-up!

Sunday, 1/20 3:00 P.M. ET: New England (-14) vs. San Diego

There’s an interesting spectrum of opinion in New England right now.  Almost all Patriots fans fall into one of three categories:

1)    Disappointed

As I mentioned in Packers-NFL_Divisional_Round_Cowboys_Disappoint_Chargers_Shock_the_World-130108">my recap of the Divisional Round, I can’t help but be disappointed in the fact that I don’t get to see a Patriots – Colts rematch. 

That’s not to say I don’t respect the Chargers or that they don’t deserve to be in the AFC Championship game, but the Colts were the presumed Patriots opponent in the AFC Championship game all season long.

Look.  I've made no bones about it.  I can’t stand the Chargers.  To me, they're extremely unlikable. 

I hate Philip Rivers (and apparently, so does everyone else). 

I’m not a big fan of Shawne Merriman.

Ladainian Tomlinson feels the need to tell everyone how classy he is a little too often. 

Besides, the whole “Good vs. Evil” storyline is far more entertaining than the “David vs. Goliath” storyline. 

2)    Worried

There’s a large contingent of Patriots fans who have convinced themselves that the Patriots’ defense isn’t any good. 

They’re worried about the secondary, the aging linebackers and the defensive line’s ability to pressure Philip Rivers. 

3)    Overconfident

It seems like there’s no in-between in New England right now.  You’re either over-worried or overconfident. 

Let's put it this way: there are already chairs lining the Boston streets reserving spots for the Super Bowl victory parade.  

Some Patriots fans have become annoyingly overconfident, helping feed the entire country’s hatred of everything New England right now.

There’s always reason to be concerned about playing a team on an eight game winning streak, especially one that was able to go into Indianapolis and upset the Colts with their backup QB and backup runningback playing all the meaningful minutes of the fourth quarter.

I respect the heck out of what the Chargers did last week.  The Chargers survived a war last week.

Meanwhile in New England, the Patriots had a pretty easy go of it. 

The Chargers traveled to Indy last week and have to travel to New England this week, two of the toughest places to win in the NFL.  The Patriots haven’t played outside of Foxboro yet in 2008. 

The Chargers have some serious injury concerns to key players.   The Patriots, outside of a few special teams players, are as healthy as they’ve been all season.

If completely healthy, the Chargers would be an underdog this weekend—the Chargers team coming into Foxboro Sunday is looking at a massive up-hill battle.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Chargers 17

Sunday, 1/20 6:30 P.M. ET: Green Bay (-7) vs. NY Giants

The Giants face a situation similar to that of the Chargers. 

The Giants have been fighting wars for the past four weeks while the Packers have, for the most part, been cruising. 

The Seahawks rolled over and died last week while the Cowboys pushed the Giants to the limit.

I worry about the Giants’ beat up secondary against Brett Favre and his receiving corps.  The Packers' receivers, by the way, have clearly become the second best group of wide receivers in the NFL. 

Ryan Grant gives the Packers a great running game and, maybe more importantly, a deadly play action game.

Green Bay's defense is probably the best one you'll see this Sunday.  Their secondary features two lock-down corners and their front seven are solid.

That said, the Giants are a team that has figured out how to win in the post season. 

Eli Manning is not only playing mistake-free football, but he’s also making big plays.  His forty-six-second long answer to the Dallas twenty-something play, quarter-long touchdown drive was a thing of beauty—and was probably the biggest reason why the Giants were able to turn things around defensively in the second half. 

It seemed to give the entire team a new life—something great quarterbacks do in big games.

(Holy crap, I just called Eli Manning a great quarterback.  I need another drink.)

The 1985 Patriots won three road games en route to the Super Bowl (I forget how that one turned out).  The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers accomplished the same thing en route to their Super Bowl victory. 

It can be done.

I just don’t see it happening this year.

Prediction:  Packers 28, Giants 20.

I’m SeanMC.