2011 NBA Draft: Will Jimmer Fredette Have a Successful Pro Career?

The Sweet Sixteen starts tonight, and a game that most fans should be glued to is between the Brigham Young University Cougars and the Florida Gators. Once again, the electrifying talents of BYU shooting guard Jimmer Fredette, will be on display—not only for NBA fans, but also for NBA scouts. Throughout most of the tournament, Fredette has been labeled as a potential first-round draft pick, maybe even in the top 10.

There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Fredette has the skill and capability to do well in the NBA. The man has a deadly three-point shot and, when left open at any time, he has what it takes to do serious damage. Yet if history is any indication, scouts should not count their chickens before they hatch.

That being said, let's take a look at Fredette's career at BYU. Overall, it is a very successful one. He has improved in each of his four years with the team and is a certain finalist for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award.

Now, here are Fredette's scoring numbers each of his four years:

Freshman: 18.5 minutes a game, seven points

Sophomore: 33 minutes, 16.2 points

Junior: 31.1 minutes, 22.1 points

Senior: 35.5 minutes, 28.8 points

All in all, based on offense alone, there isn't much indication that Fredette wouldn't have a successful run in the NBA. He has averaged 18.5 points a game for his college career thus far, and his career field goal percentage is a very impressive 45 percent.

His career three-point percentage is average at 39 percent, but has been unbelievable over the past two seasons at 42 percent.

Still, and you may call me skeptical, a hater, whatever you want, I'm not convinced that Fredette will be an NBA star.

First, he is just a bit small to be effective. At 6'2" and 195 pounds, he certainly has average size for a point guard, but lacks the athleticism necessary for the position.

On top of that, his defense and passing game are both extremely questionable. He averages about a steal a game, but does not have the same type of footwork and natural ability that we have seen from other point guards like Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving. Regarding his passing, he only averaged about four assists a game his senior season.  For his college career, the assist average tops out at 3.7 per game.

Still, despite all of this, experts seem to believe that Fredette has the tools to be a top NBA guard. At this point, it may be a good idea to look at past NBA drafts and see just how well certain electrifying college shooters have panned out on the professional level.

Most notably, a case of this type of college player busting in the NBA is former Duke guard J.J. Redick, currently of the Orlando Magic.

Redick was a four-year starter for the Blue Devils, averaging 19.9 points a game for his college career to go with an incredible three-point percentage of 40. His career field goal percentage at Duke was an even more impressive 45 percent. These statistics impressed the Magic enough that they drafted Redick with the 11th overall pick.

Today, Redick is essentially a non-factor on his team, as well as in the NBA. He is oft-injured, comes off the bench on a team already loaded with talented shooting guards, and has only averaged just under eight points for his career.  

His shot accuracy is still there and he has a great game ever so often, but he is nowhere near the superstar people thought he would be.

As I mentioned what could be a problem with Fredette, Redick's size (6'4", 190 pounds) is much to blame for his lack of success. Sure, he was fun to watch in college, but he was a glorified shooter who didn't play any defense or pass the ball much.

That all being said, can Fredette have a successful NBA career if he keeps playing the way he does? Not by a long shot. If anything, he'll be a Steve Kerr-type player who comes off the bench and makes key three-pointers.

If Fredette wants to be more than that, he had better start working more on his all-around game and not as much on his shooting. Otherwise, he is destined for a spot on future "Biggest NBA Draft Busts" countdowns.