Seahawks-Packers: Bet on Brett Favre to Flop

Talk about overrated.

All the experts on ESPN.com chose Green Bay to knock off the Seattle Seahawks in Saturday’s NFC divisional tilt at Lambeau Field.

Regardless of what happens Saturday, I don’t understand why everyone is on the Packers’ bandwagon.

True, the 10-6 Seahawks haven't looked great, and play in the weak NFC West. And yes, they had some lucky bounces go their way (the finish against St. Louis when the Rams botched their final scoring drive comes to mind).

But the 'Hawks won when they had to, including a huge win against the Cardinals in Week 14, and another in the Wild Card round vs. the red-hot Redskins, when their defense came up big.

And have the Packers really played that great themselves?

Don’t forget that soft schedule—they got to play the Rams (3-13), the Raiders (4-12), and and Chiefs (4-12)...and had to get a late rally in the fourth quarter just to pull one out against KC.

They also twice played the lowly Lions, who allowed a league-high 27.75 points per game (yes, worse than the 1-15 Dolphins)—and the Panthers (7-9) and Broncos (7-9) too.

Then there's the recent playoff past for Brett Favre and Co. at Lambeau Field. Seriously—what Lambeau mystique and Favre magic is everyone talking about?

Favre couldn’t beat the Falcons five years ago when former stud Michael Vick led Atlanta into Lambeau and won impressively. The score was 24-zip by the time Favre found the end zone.

The Vikings, an 8-8 outfit who had already lost twice to the Pack in the regular season, knocked off Green Bay at Lambeau in 2005, despite the controversy surrounding then-receiver Randy Moss and his mooning incident.

By the way—Favre threw four picks in that one.

Even the Seahawks took the Pack to overtime four years ago before Matt Hasselbeck’s interception cost Seattle the game.

Seattle, meanwhile, has more playoff experience. This could be the Seahawks’ final hurrah, and they should come out hungry. There’s talk of coach Mike Holmgren stepping aside if the 'Hawks don’t get it done this year—and how many more years does Shaun Alexander have to get his Super Bowl ring?

Obviously, Seattle has something to play for here. Outside of Favre, the Packers are a young, inexperienced team.

I’d go with Seattle in a nail-biter, with the game being decided on a last-second field goal. Seattle's defense, which looked good against Washington last week, is going to force Favre into more of those classic playoff INTs.

Favre continues to get all the love from the media, despite the Packers' having no postseason success since the QB's lone Super Bowl win against the Patriots in 1997.

Don’t all those subsequent playoff losses mean anything?

Six INTs in St. Louis in a 2002 embarrassment? Plus those home losses in 2003 (Falcons) and 2005 (Vikings)?

Yet that '97 win is all that people remember.

And no, there will be no New England-Green Bay rematch this year.

Prediction: Seattle 30, Green Bay 27, with Favre throwing three picks