Fantasy Happy Hour at Las Vegas Motor Speedway: Roush's Revenge

In this week’s Kobalt Tools 400 preview, we suggested fantasy owners exercise caution when considering which of the Roush-Fenway Racers they want to place on their roster.

Since then, Matt Kenseth has won the Pole with a record speed of 188.884 mph, Carl Edwards qualified third and Greg Biffle rolls off the grid to his immediate right. Kenseth backed up that speed by posting the fasting single lap in Happy Hour while both Edwards and Biffle also logged fast laps that placed them at the top on the speed chart.

Average speed is a better indicator of how drivers will fare during the race, and each of these drivers was among the five fastest on that chart as well. This is one of the biggest reasons why you never want to make your final selection until the red and black flag waves over Happy Hour to close the book on the preliminary sessions.

We’re not quite ready to do a complete about face on the prediction that Roushketeers are a gamble this week, because a lot can happen during 400 miles of competition. But their practice speeds certainly will cause us to remove the red flag from over their heads.

Carl Edwards
Quickest at 182.58 mph during 46 laps.

If anyone staked a claim to being the top-ranked driver in preliminaries, it would be Edwards. He was narrowly edged for the Pole by teammate Kenseth and a surprisingly fast Marcos Ambrose, but over the long runs he was unparalleled. The No. 99 car posted the fastest average time in Friday’s practice with a speed of 185.091 mph during nine laps. In Happy Hour when the team worked on race trim setup, his average was 181.965 mph during 37 circuits, and all of that gives this team a perfect balance of short-term speed and durability during the long run.

Paul Menard
Second quickest at 181.58 mph during 59 laps.

Menard was another consistently fast driver in both sessions. He posted the third-quickest average speed on both Friday and Saturday. In most salary cap games he is affordable, which will allow fantasy owners to stretch their dollar. In the Yahoo! fantasy game, he is liable to be the best value in Group C, and there is a very real possibility he could crack the top 10 if the cards fall the right way.

Greg Biffle
Third quickest at 181.29 mph during 65 laps.

Despite Kenseth’s Pole and Edwards’ quickest average speed, Biffle should be considered the best value among the Roushketeers. These three drivers are equally matched in terms of their accomplishment at the track this weekend, but Biffle is the only driver with three consecutive top-10 finishes to his credit since Las Vegas implemented progressive banking. Dollar for dollar, he is going to be the best bang for the buck, and the Kobalt Tools 400 could result in his first victory on this track.

Jimmie Johnson
Fourth quickest at 181.21 mph during 51 laps.

Jeff Gordon was our favorite before the weekend started, but Johnson is making a firm statement that he should have been the designated Hendrick Hero. His qualification effort was modest and he rolls off the grid from mid-pack on the seventh row. But that is not nearly as far back as last week at Phoenix, and it didn’t take him very long to get to the lead pack. As the defending winner, he has more confidence than anyone else in the field, which will pay huge dividends on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth
Fifth quickest at 181.13 mph during 67 laps.

Kenseth rounds out the top-five in terms of average speed and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could be part of a perfect sweep for this organization at the head of the field when the checkers wave. Much can go wrong during a NASCAR race, however, and Kenseth has a bad record of finishing strong at Vegas when he qualifies well there. There is absolutely no verifiable, scientific reason to be nervous about Kenseth’s prospects this week, but we still predict he will finish behind teammates Biffle and Edwards.

Trevor Bayne
Sixth quickest at 181.06 mph during 59 laps.

If Bayne had been this strong in practice at Phoenix—coming off his Daytona 500 victory—we would have been ready to wave a vigorous green flag over his head and suggest you take him as your dark horse. After crashing in both practice and the Subway Fresh Fit 500k, however, reality has intruded and we have to admit there are too many mistakes a rookie can make during a long NASCAR Sprint Cup race. The Wood Bros. team puts a lot of effort into their unrestricted, intermediate speedway program, however, so he might still fit on your roster if his salary cap is a perfect match for your final pick.

Kyle Busch
Seventh quickest at 181.00 mph during 79 laps.

Busch blistered the field in the early stages of the Nationwide Sam’s Town 300 on Saturday and lapped up to the ninth position before one-third of the race was in the books. Maybe there is something to this home field advantage after all. As you dissect his weekend numbers, they get progressively better; he was seventh quickest overall in the combined Friday and Saturday practice sessions, but during Happy Hour, he posted the fifth-best time of 180.98 mph during 61 laps. Better still, Busch had the fastest 10 consecutive laps as reported by NASCAR Statistical Services and with the numerous cautions that define a modern race, fantasy owners should expect him to get to the front and stay there.

Tony Stewart
Eighth quickest at 180.91 mph during 78 laps.

Stewart has flown under the radar screen for much of the weekend, but his practice speeds demand attention. His qualification lap of 186.53 mph lines him up 15th, but he’s in great company nonetheless with Gordon and Johnson immediately ahead of him. Stewart’s recent record has been a little hit and miss, but when he finds the right setup, he can dominate a race.

Martin Truex Jr.
Ninth quickest at 180.89 mph during 74 laps.

We give average speed a lot of credence on race weekend and that makes Truex a tempting proposition. Unfortunately, every time we jump on his bandwagon, his race is marred by some heartbreaking incident that pushes him just outside the top 10. He’s been tantalizingly close in recent races with four results between 11th (in last year’s Homestead finale) and 19th (in the Daytona 500). If he finishes in the low teens, he will be a great value, but that could be a big if.

David Reutimann
10th quickest at 180.78 mph during 74 laps.

Reutimann has experienced much greater disappointment in his recent attempts, but he is still in the same category as Truex this week. High-torque, unrestricted, intermediate speedways are tracks on which Toyota tends to run strong and the No. 00’s last two attempts at Vegas have ended in top-15s. Both racers should be considered utility drivers this week, but only roll the dice on one of them.

The Rest of the Field

Driver, Avg. Speed (mph)/Laps

11. Juan Montoya, 180.68/57
12. Marcos Ambrose, 180.56/77
13. Kasey Kahne, 180.47/64
14. Ryan Newman, 180.46/77
15. Joey Logano, 180.30/74
16. Kurt Busch, 180.26/62
17. David Ragan, 180.17/77
18. Jeff Burton, 180.12/78
19. Mark Martin, 180.01/72
20. A.J. Allmendinger, 179.89/80
21. Joe Nemechek, 179.79/16
22. Clint Bowyer, 179.77/62
23. Brad Keselowski, 179.77/70
24. David Gilliland, 179.32/35
25. Bobby Labonte, 179.20/58
26. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 179.16/52
27. Brian Vickers, 179.15/80
28. Denny Hamlin, 178.99/64
29. Casey Mears, 178.97/47
30. Jamie McMurray, 178.68/66
31. Robby Gordon, 178.58/29
32. Kevin Harvick, 178.42/54
33. J.J. Yeley, 178.00/22
34. Bill Elliott, 177.76/45
35. Mike Skinner, 177.74/33
36. Landon Cassill, 177.26/43
37. Jeff Gordon, 177.20/59
38. Dave Blaney, 176.77/35
39. Regan Smith, 176.49/58
40. Andy Lally, 176.20/64
41. Travis Kvapil, 175.54/39
42. Michael McDowell, 175.30/26
43. Tony Raines, 175.15/ 29