Fantasy Preview: Jeff Gordon May Double Down at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

The answer to the question of whether Jeff Gordon can double down at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week depends on which set of numbers you want to believe.

When Gordon won the Samsung 500 at Texas Motor Speedway in April 2009, he was coming off a 47-race winless streak that dated back to the 2007 Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and he thought his trouble was behind him. It was his first win on a track that had eluded him throughout his career even though he had come close on numerous occasions.

Until then, his victories had been spread evenly enough that he never failed to win at least once in a season; all that changed in 2010. Despite coming close on several occasions, last year was his first winless season since he first graced victory lane as a sophomore in 1994.

Fantasy owners have to be aware of that statistic as they set their lineup this week, but there is another set of numbers they should also consider.

Gordon continued to run well during his dry spell, scoring eight second-place finishes and 22 Top Fives in the next 66 races, which continued to make him a good value in nearly every type of fantasy game. Other than some particularly painful periods late last year, he rarely suffered through two consecutive races without a Top 10.

More importantly, his victory in 2009 was not the only time he snapped a long winless streak—and his other breakthrough portends a different outcome. In 2007, Gordon won the spring race at Phoenix International Raceway and snapped a 26-race winless streak.

That Phoenix victory was notable for two other reasons, as it was his first victory on a track that had previously been difficult to find the right setup and it tied him with Dale Earnhardt Sr. at 76 total victories in NASCAR’s top series. Last week, he finally tied Cale Yarborough for fifth on the all-time winners list and now has Darrell Waltrip (with 84 wins) and Bobby Allison (85) lined up ahead of him.

After winning in Phoenix in 2007, the series rolled into Talladega SuperSpeedway, where Gordon immediately surpassed Earnhardt. Two weeks later, he won again at Darlington Raceway and during the remainder of that season, he continued to visit victory lane for a total of six wins.

Gordon’s record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is as good as anyone’s. He already has one victory on this track in 2001 and five of his last six attempts there have ended in results of sixth or better.

Momentum is a powerful force and should not be ignored by fantasy owners.

Hendrick Motorsports as a whole is equally strong, which adds to Gordon’s appeal. Last year, they placed three drivers in the Top 10 with Jimmie Johnson leading the way to victory lane, followed by Gordon in third and Mark Martin in fourth.

Roushketeer Roulette

One of the other dominant teams in NASCAR might be a poor gamble this week.

Someone from Roush-Fenway Racing always run well on this track. But if you guess wrong about which driver it will be this week, your fantasy value could bust. With the exception of Greg Biffle—who has three consecutive Top 10s—the other three Roushketeers have experienced up-and-down results since this track was reconfigured with progressive banking in 2008.

Carl Edwards won that inaugural race on the new configuration, but that was his last Top 10 in Sin City. Since winning, he’s finished 17th and 12th, which does not make him attractive for your fantasy lineup. Nor was he particularly strong on the old configuration of this track, with one only one Top 10 in his previous three attempts. Before getting wrecked by Kyle Busch at Phoenix last week, he seemed to have momentum on his side, but that single incident could have dulled his enthusiasm.

Matt Kenseth finished fifth in this race last year, which made him a great value. But if you had him on your team in 2009, he earned minimal points after blowing an engine only six laps into the Shelby 427 and finishing dead last. His first attempt on the progressive banks was better, but not by a wide margin, as he finished 20th.

You’ll hear a lot about Kenseth’s two previous Vegas victories this weekend, but remember that they came when this was a generic “cookie-cutter” course in 2003 and 2004.

Even David Ragan has gotten into the mix in recent years. He finished seventh in 2008, but followed Kenseth to the garage almost immediately in 2009 and finished 42nd. Last year, he was 23rd—slightly more acceptable at his level in some games—but still not enough to turn very many heads.

There is even a little caution regarding Biffle. Although he has three consecutive Top 10s on the progressive banks, he is trending the wrong direction. In 2008, he finished third, but Biffle slipped to seventh in 2009 and was 10th last year. So if the trend continues, he is looking at a finish somewhere in the teens. While that might make him a good utility driver, you are not going to want to build a lineup around him.