Derek Lofland, NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs
Since I wrote each NFL division predictions, there have been a few major transactions. First, the Saints acquired Jeremy Shockey, which helps bolster my confidence in the New Orleans pick.
Second, Jason Taylor became a Redskin. While he does make the defense better, I don’t expect a big improvement from my 7-9 prediction, due to the questions I have on offense. The final move is Brett Favre being reinstated by the Packers and traded to the Jets for a conditional fourth-round pick.
The bottom line is that it would be foolish to project the Jets as a playoff team at this point. Favre is 38-years old going on 39. He is late getting into camp. He needs to learn a new offensive system.
I believe this will work out and he will make the Jets a better team. Still, they have about a 1 percent chance of overtaking the Patriots in that division. The Jets will be competing for a wild-card spot, most likely the No. 6 seed.
Jacksonville and Indy are both better than the Jets and one of those teams will be the No. 5 seed.
Favre is an exciting signing, but whether that allows them to beat out the Browns, Broncos, and Titans for the final wild card is another story.
Therefore, I am just doing my predictions as I did this summer, with the acknowledgement that the Jets could scare some people of this media circus and could be nothing more than preseason excitement that will not yield any meaningful advancement in the standings.
I have already released my eight NFL Division Previews. If you missed any of them, the links are as follows:
a) AFC East
b) NFC East
c) AFC South
d) NFC South
e) AFC North
f) NFC North
g) AFC West
h) NFC West
These are the teams I had making the 2008 NFL Playoffs:
AFC Playoff Teams
1) Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3
2) New England Patriots 13-3
3) San Diego Chargers 12-4
4) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
5) Indianapolis Colts 12-4
6) Cleveland Browns 10-6
NFC Playoff Teams
33 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Hudson B 11 months ago
I completely disagree with your prediction on a possible Eagles vs Vikings playoff matchup. If Tarvaris Jackson is what the Vikings' coaches are saying that he is the Vikings could easily go 12-4 and plow through a wide open NFC. If any team beats them, it is the Cowboys. The Vikings nearly beat the Cowboys last year without Tarvaris Jackson, Jared Allen, Madieu Williams, Tyrell Johnson, or Bernard Berrian. The Eagle entire season rides on the health of Donovan McNabb. The Vikings won't be throwing downfield to Berrian 10-15 times a game and risk Asante Samuel picking it off. They will run first, and if it comes to third down, the first options will be screens to Visthante Schiancoe and Thomas Tapeh. Then they will look down field for Berrian or Rice. The offense isn't built for a Randy Moss or a Terrell Owens. AND the game would be in Minnesota. The Eagles have not major threat against a defense other than Westbrook. It could be argued that Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, and DeSean Jackson could get the job done, but not with McNabb being sacked every other series by Jared Allen or Ray Edwards. If you were saying that Dallas, Indy, Jacksonville, or New England would beat the Vikings I would definitely agree. But this is a team who adressed all of its major needs this off-season and added depth all over the roster.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
HUDSON, Thanks for the comments. Here is my response.
1) How many teams do you see run through the playoffs on their first trip? NY Giants were 0-2 with Manning prior to breaking through. Peyton Manning struggled for years before winning it in 06. McNabb took 4 playoff runs before he advanced to the Super Bowl. It takes time for a QB to lead his team through the playoffs. Even a guy like Trent Dilfer had several setbacks in Tampa Bay before leading the Ravens to the prize.
I think Minnesota will have a good regular season and their defense will keep them in a 2nd round playoff game. I don't think they are going to score many points in their playoff game as it will be a learning experience for Minnesota.
Your argument that the Vikings don't have a Moss or Owens for Samuel to cover thus taking him out of intercepting the ball is very simplistic. That should make it easier for the Eagles to eliminate the Vikings passing offense. Eagles have Shepherd and Brown too and can play all kinds of coverage to confuse Jackson and cover the average receivers. They can put 7 and 8 in the box to contain Peterson.
I'm not going to guarantee Philly would beat Minnesota in a playoff game 5 months before it might happen, but Philly has more than enough on defense to contain Minnesota. Westbrook and McNabb are not going to account for 40 points, but they can put points up on the board even against a defense like the Vikings that does still have secondary issues. I would expect the Eagles to win a playoff game against Minnesota based on their experience and Minnesota's lack of passing offense.
2) Garrard started the entire season last year and part of the year before. The reason he played only 12 games last year is he got hurt in the middle of the season. Garrard isn't as vital for the Jags to succeed as Romo is for the Cowboys. Romo needs to carry that team with Owens and Witten in order for that team to win in the playoffs. Romo had 19 picks to Garrards 3 picks last year. Turnovers kill in the playoffs. The Jags could win with small burst of Garrard and heavy doses of Taylor and MJD. That is why I am comfortable picking the Jags with Garrard having only one run through the playoffs.
3) I have Jacksonville hosting New England, not traveling to New England. I think Jacksonville could go into New England and win. That game was competitive well into the 4th quarter last year and Jags have upgraded.
My opinion is that the Chargers, Colts, Jags, and Pats are the class of the AFC. I could see any of the 4 making the Super Bowl. I think the Chargers, Colts, and Pats have taken a step back and I like the way the Jags ended the season, that Garrard will have another year under his belt, the receivers the Jags added, and the defense they drafted. I think the Jags are the only team in that group that really upgraded. Hence I am predicting them to go to the Super Bowl.
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Casey Fenton 11 months ago
Well, you're the first guy I've seen picking the Jags. Good to put yourself out there.
I'm surprised that you say you're "not ready to bet on Tony Romo" but you're willing to go with Garrard in his first full year of starting. I think almost everyone I talk to would prefer Romo as their starter then Garrard.
Strong analysis though.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Casey, Garrard started the entire season last year and part of the year before.
The reason he played only 12 games last year is he got hurt in the middle of the season. Garrard isn't as vital for the Jags to succeed as Romo is for the Cowboys. Romo needs to carry that team with Owens and Witten in order for that team to win in the playoffs.
Romo had 19 picks to Garrards 3 picks last year. Turnovers kill in the playoffs. The Jags could win with small burst of Garrard and heavy doses of Taylor and MJD. That is why I am comfortable picking the Jags with Garrard having only one run through the playoffs.
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Casey Fenton 10 months ago
I feel just going down the list I'd take Romo over Garrard; TO and Patrick Crayton over Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; Marion Barber III over Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew; and Witten over Marcedes Lewis.
I'd still take Jacksonville's defense over Dallas, but when it comes to offense I don't buy the argument. Likewise, I'd take Dallas' 14th ranked schedule over Jacksonville's 3rd hardest. The NFC's path to the Super Bowl is also, much easier now-a-days.
We'll have to wait out and see.
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Richard Householder 11 months ago
Wow, the Steelers schedule is just waaaaay too difficult to think they can make the playoffs. You mentioned the 7 week stretch which is hell, but they also play JAC and have games at CLE and PHI. Just way too hard. They are not making it.
My second issue is JAC beating NE in the AFC title game. I just don't see it. Let's say for arguments sake that the 2 teams are even (they are not, JAC might have a better defense, NE's offense is light years ahead), do you really see David Garrard outdueling Tom Brady in Foxboro?
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Richard, As for the Steelers. They do have a very difficult schedule. They are not going to go 7-0 against that stretch.
However, they aren't going to go 0-7 either. Steelers should go 5-1 against their division. They should beat the Texans, Titans, and Redskins. That puts them at 8-1. That means they would have to go 3-4 against the 7 game stretch I talked about to get to 11-5. Most likely wins would be against Philly, NY Giants, Indy, and SD (Indy and SD are at Pittsburgh).
While it is good to recognize that Steelers have a tough schedule you also have to recognize the Steelers have a good team and can win some of those games too. Bad teams go 4-12 against tough schedules. Good team aren't going to go 16-0 against tough schedules, but they should still compete
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Silver Fox 11 months ago
I'm still not confident that the Dallas Cowboys, who lost again in the playoffs despite have 13 Pro Bowl players, will win in post season because Head Coach Wade Phillips may be just too laid back to lead a charge to the Super Bowl. I think the NFC is prett wide open, with several who could win it, depending on health and team chemistry issues. The whole NFC East looks solid and then teams like the Seahawks, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Vikings, Bears, Packers, and maybe the Cardinals could have solid seasons. Not all of these teams, but it's too soon to tell which teams will emerge in the NFC. We expect the AFC to produce winners from the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers. The Steelers and Jaguars, and maybe the Browns, Broncos, and Bills or Jets will compete well for playoff spots.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Nice analysis Silver, the NFC is a work in progress while the AFC is more of a predictable conference.
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Trent Alderman 11 months ago
Good article, but I'd like to know your thoughts on the Panthers. They've got a lot of new players and I know that could either be a good thing or a bad thing but I believe strongly that with Jake back and healthy that they should easily accomplish a 10-6 or 11-5 record. Their schedule is of easy to moderate difficulty. They'll destroy the falcons twice and they'll probably split wins with the other two teams in the division. Otherwise they'll most likely gain wins over AZ, KC, CHC, Oakland, and Detroit. Then they have to win only one of those questionable games in order to make the playoffs based on your predictions. I feel strongly that they will make the playoffs and Fox has proven to coach well in playoff games. I like your article and it's very well defended. Carolina is my darkhorse candidate for a playoff spot and furthermore a NFC Championship spot, especially since they play in the weak NFC.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Trent, below is what we wrote about the Panthers in our division's breakdown. And that was before Steve Smith was inflicted a two-game suspension.
"Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points allowed. While the Panthers’ defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL.
The Panthers added some nice talent in the draft. Dan Conner is a good linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State that should contribute soon. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back that could also see the field immediately.
The Panthers secondary still has solid corners. Gamble and Lucas are excellent in coverage. They have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23 sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the quarterback has all day to throw the ball.
On offense, Steve Smith is still a top-flight wide receiver. D.J. Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his second year. He had just six catches for 73 yards in his rookie campaign. Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end position. A healthy Jake Delhomme would go a long way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.
Weaknesses: The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2. Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and six touchdowns in those six games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.
Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his third game of the season and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Vinny Testaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with David Carr and Matt Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and one touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the season.
The defense, which had been a staple of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in the league in scoring defense. That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in 2002. A lot of that had to do with the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field position. Still, three-time Pro Bowl and two-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in 2007. It was his only season other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers finished so low in the sack department. He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.
DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams teamed up to be the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Francisco and Williams has yet to show he can be an every down back. That factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. If he can be healthy by the start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the ball. The Panthers also added massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is one of the best in the business. If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.
Prediction: The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10-plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.
While Delhomme is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league, he has proven that he can lead this team to victory. He can throw the ball downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last two seasons.
Without him, Matt Moore is the new starter and, as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his three starts, the Panthers he went 2-1. However, one of those wins was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers scored 13 points in each contest. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.
While Delhomme was very healthy from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last two seasons. He missed three starts in 2006 and 13 last year. He had season-ending surgery to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full strength. That is not what you want from your starter in June.
The Panthers made some upgrades at wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the Buccaneers have their share of issues. I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.
I considered picking them for the top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or effective the entire season, and I don’t think a team can win consistently in the NFL with Moore starting games. I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback health questions.
See the 2007 Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs
Carolina’s Record: 7-9 – NFC South third Place; No Playoffs"
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Daniel Smith 11 months ago
cardinal 9-7 playoff team? at there very best and i mean very best i say 8-8/i think they win 6 games
and i think the jets go 8-8 if things dont work out, 9-7 if they do what there supposed to do, 10-6 if things go good and they get off to a good start. other then that you did a good job at your picks.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Well, the Cardinals are a risky pick as usual.
We're banking on Seattle aging WRs and lack of running game. It will be tough, I know.
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ryan none 11 months ago
Nice article.
I agree with your Saints prediction.
The second half of the Saints schedule is crazy easy. The last seven games include, ATL, KC, TB, ATL, CHI, DET, and CAR. BetSportsWeb has them listed at +700 to win the NFC, and +110 to win the NFC South division. I think the Saints are a lock to win the division and have a good shot if they stay healthy to win the NFC.
Also, I agree with Casey regarding the Tony Romo vs. Garrard assessment. Romo seems like a better known commodity then David Garrard at this point.
Its going to be an exciting year!
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
The Saints were supposed to be scary last season too, but we all know what happened.
This year, they have solidified their defense and even added Shockey on offense.
The past few years in the NFC south, the previous' year division dweller has turned around to win the division the very next season.
I don't see that happening this year with the Falcons.
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Jake Perper 11 months ago
everyone is saying the same playoff prediction. This will never happen.
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Fahad Zaidi 11 months ago
Great article! Great read!
I can see the Jags winning the division over the Colts but I think they're still a year away from making it to the Superbowl. The addition of Porter will help their air attack but they still are no where close to the Pats offensively.
Did the Jaguars over achieve last year by making it to the second round? No, but I still think the Chargers and Patriots are better teams than the Jaguars.
But you never know, I could be wrong.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
The Jaguars are always one year away, or so it seems, LOL
Just look at what the Giants did... Weren't the Patriots supposed to be unmatched?
It will be interesting to see how it turns out this year!
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Raj Kamruddin 11 months ago
Well..thats that. No reason to watch the regular season anymore. And to think, I was paying attention to the preseason too. Now that youve given me your predictions, I can spend my sundays going grocery shopping with my wife, doing laundry and yardwork.
Kidding. Hey, I hope the Browns win at least one playoff game. I have this dream that Anderson will lead the team to a playoff win, go to the pro-bowl, and maybe the browns will make a trade sending Brady to my Bears.
Unlikely, but worth dreaming for.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
RAJ, I was thinking the same thing! Let's just skip the whole season and go directly to next year's NFL draft, LOL....
The Browns are an interesting team. They certainly have a shot. I can't believe how fast they turned around! Kudos to them.
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Steve Saquella 11 months ago
I hate to tell you but no way Minnesota wins the NFC North with Tavaris Jackson as their QB, yes they have improved the D-Line with Jared Allen, but thats pretty much it, you need a good QB to go 11-5 and the Vikings will not do that I think the Packers win the division with a 10-6 record.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
They could win the North as the Packers have gotten weaker, but they should lose in the playoffs.
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Hudson B 11 months ago
Okay, whoever would rather have Tony Romo over David Garrard is crazy. If you consider starting only 15 games not a full season, then you are right that this will be his first season. Okay, hmm gunslinger who is either going to give you an incredible game or a terrible vs. conservative, smart minded qb who will throw minimal interceptions and capitalize on most opportunities. If you are a gambling man, your best bet is Garrard. Add the fact that Garrard can move. Obviously everyone knows who Tony Romo is, seeing that his ex-girlfriends include Jessica Simpson and Carrie Underwood and he is the starting qb for the most popular team in the country, but that doesn't make him a better qb. Romo is the type of qb that will get you there, but will choke under pressure. Garrard is as smooth as gravy. He has the smarts to know when to throw the football away or scramble for six or seven yards. No contest. Garrard.
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Tom Jackson 11 months ago
Seattle is guaranteed a playoff spot. I wouldn't be surprised if they jump up to the No. 2 seed now that Brett Favre has left the Packers, making them the 2nd rated NFC team from last year's standings. The NFC West is still a joke of a division, having let Seattle win it with ease the last 4 seasons. It will be a 5th as long as Matt Hasselbeck is calling the shots.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Tom, I wouldn't guarantee it, but there is a strong chance of that happening.
IF the Cardinals finally get over the hump, they are the better team in the West.
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TR 11 months ago
"I think the Chargers would have had a great chance to beat the Patriots last year had Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, and Philip Rivers all been healthy."
Yeah, and I think the Patriots would have had a shot at SBXL if half the team had been healthy.
Why is it that people talk about other teams' injuries as if that's some sort of excuse, but when the Patriots were decimated by injuries, the official line was: "injuries are part of the game"?
Hey, I agree, injuries certainly are part of the game, no doubt about it, which is why I don't want to hear what the SD chokers or anybody else (including the Patriots) "would have had" if the whole team had been healthy. Enough with the double standard.
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Football Maniaxs 11 months ago
Terry, you're right! ENOUGH already.
It's human nature to always find an excuse for failure. Sometimes the excuse is legit, sometimes is not.
Crazy things happen every year.
Last year the Patriots were healthy for the Superbowl and the Giants found a way to win by 3.
While most people won't remember the runner ups, last year was an exception due to the Perfect regular season the Pats had! In fact, I almost forgot who won last year...
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TR 11 months ago
Down, boy.
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Billy Franzese 10 months ago
the rams will win thats divison if healthy, i like the jags but as a wild card, not a superbowl champion, im not sold on the chargers at all and my prediction is colts/cowboys if bob sanders/dwight freeney stay healthy and as for the vikings...bernard berrian is nothing special if its anyone its gunna be sydney rice... but tarvaris will lead the league in turnovers for a QB
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Football Maniaxs 10 months ago
Very well said about Berrian. At the top anything can happen once in the playoffs.
Your predictions are safer than ours but good regardless.
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Gary Wright 10 months ago
I personally say watch out for the Eagles. If Mcnabb stays healthy look for the Eagles with a 12-4 record and a Super Bowl berth.
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Ian McErlain 10 months ago
AFC Round 1: Miami 17 vs. Pittsburgh 28 Cincinatti 21 vs. Indianapolis 31
NFC Round 1: NY Giants 38 vs. Tampa Bay 23 Green Bay 14 vs. Seattle 7
AFC Round 2: San Diego 41 vs. Pittsburgh 29 NY Jets 25 vs. Indianapolis 14
NFC Round 2: Dallas 28 vs. NY Giants 31 Minnesota 31 vs. Green Bay 21
AFC Championship: San Diego 28 vs. NY Jets 21
NFC Championship: NY Giants 7 vs. Minnesota 21
SUPER BOWL XVIII: SAN DIEGO 21 VS. MINNESOTA 17
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Football Maniaxs 10 months ago
Miami and Jets in, Patriots out?
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