2008 NFL Season Preview: 12 Burning Questions
Derek Lofland, NFL director for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com
Now that training camps have officially kicked off, I decided to come up with a list of the 12 hottest questions on NFL fans' minds entering training camp.
With 32 teams, I could not cover everyone. If you think I made a glaring omission, please leave it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.
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Without further delay, here are the 12 biggest questions around the NFL, now that teams have reported for training camp.
12) Is Matt Leinart ready to emerge as Arizona's starter?
All indications are that he has looked good through the offseason and is ready to take control of that offense. However, the Cardinals also like Kurt Warner and have been having him take snaps with the first unit as well. In 2007, he had his best season since leaving St. Louis.
I think Leinart’s party lifestyle has gotten blown out of proportion. These guys are going to enjoy themselves. They aren’t robots that eat and digest football 24/7. They have families, endorsements, business ventures, and yes...hot tubs full of sexy young ladies.
Had this happened the Saturday night before the Seattle game, I would have had a different take. Had he gone to Mexico with his entourage of hotness the week before his opening playoff game, I would not have been impressed.
It happened in the offseason, and there is nothing wrong with Leinart enjoying his celebrity. The world of camera phones makes it hard to keep that stuff private. When you combine that with his USC celebrity status, you have the makings for that type of story.
This is the year he needs to break out. He has great receiving talent and a solid back in James. He has a good coaching staff. The line is not perfect, and the defense will give up points, but the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns in 2007. All three teams won 10 games.
The time for excuses is over.
I think he does have a good year, but I’m not certain. What I am certain of is that whether he breaks out or not will have nothing to do with the company he kept in his hot tub.
11) Will the NY Jets and Oakland Raiders' spending sprees pay off?
It might have paid off in the NFC. The problem is that the Jets finished 12 games behind the Patriots in 2007. Even with the players they added, they are only the second-best team in that division. The Raiders finished seven games off the Chargers. They too have a long way to go to close that gap.
The Jets and Raiders spent nearly $100 million in guaranteed money this off-season. The Jets used that to bring in Calvin Pace, Bubba Franks, Alan Faneca, and to guarantee the last year of Cole's deal. The Raiders brought in Hall, Walker, Wilson, and used the money to lock Kelly up to a record deal.
At the end of the day, it is still a quarterback’s league. The Jets have Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens, and the Raiders are trying to figure out if JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden can usher in a new era of excellence.
While both teams added some good players, and both teams overpaid for some talent, they will be better in 2008. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough to compete with the slew of playoff teams in the AFC.
I look for the Jets to get to the .500 mark and for the Raiders to get to six to seven wins. While that will be improvement, it won’t satisfy fan’s expectations, given that the Jets and Raiders were throwing dollars at free agents this offseason like Pacman throws at strippers on a Monday night. Sorry Dallas fans. I couldn’t help myself.
10) Where does Shaun Alexander end up in 2008?
I don’t understand why he hasn’t ended up in Green Bay yet. Ted Thompson drafted him in Seattle. Thompson has cap room and wouldn't have to give up draft picks. Ryan Grant is holding out for a larger contract. The Packers have no proven rushers on their roster.
There are a few reasons that make this move a no brainer: 1) He will put pressure on Grant to sign. 2) He will be an insurance policy if Grant gets hurt, is ineffective, or both. 3) He can show your younger players how to play the running-back position.
Alexander doesn’t have nearly enough in the tank to generate a season like he did when he won the MVP in 2005. What he does have is a wealth of experience and the ability to share the load with another runner.
He could be a valuable player in a playoff game. I would expect that someone’s running back is going to get injured, and they will turn to Shaun Alexander to save their season. It is amazing how quickly a guy can go from MVP to out of a job.
9) Are Cleveland and Minnesota playoff teams in 2008?
These were basically the two teams that just missed the playoffs in 2007. These teams are usually the most intriguing the following year. In 2006, Green Bay used its playoff miss to improve from 8-8 to 13-3. Denver and Cincinnati regressed from their near misses in 2006 to play even worse in 2007. It can go both ways.
Minnesota had a great offseason by adding Jared Allen to the defensive line. Bernard Berrian gives them a much better target at receiver. Jackson is developing. With the “retirement” of Brett Favre, the division is in flux, and I expect the Vikings to grab the NFC North. In the extremely unlikely event that the Vikings acquire Favre, they could be a Super Bowl contender.
Cleveland added a lot of talent on the defensive line with Rogers and Williams. They also added Donte Stallworth to the receiver mix. Their offensive core is still young and improving. This could be a very dangerous team in 2008. I am expecting 10 wins and the final playoff spot.
Also, don’t forget New Orleans. They finished 7-9 after making the NFC Championship in 2006. They have added Jeremy Shockey, Jonathan Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Gay. If their defense can regain its 2006 form, and the offense can mount more of a downfield threat, the Saints will be in prime position to win the NFC South.
8) Who will be the super surprise team of 2008?
I think the team with the best chance to go from the top 10 of the draft to playoff contention would be the St. Louis Rams. They have a lot of offensive talent. Bulger is a solid quarterback. Jackson is a threat as a runner and pass catcher. Holt is still a No. 1 target.
The Rams had a lot of issues on defense and the offensive line last year. Pace needs to stay healthy, and Chris Long needs to have a big year to help bring back the defense.
That said, the Rams don’t play in the toughest of divisions and they draw the AFC East in 2008. I only have them finishing 6-10, but I would not be shocked if they were able to get to 8-8 or 9-7 and contend for either the division or the last wild-card spot.
They need to stay healthy, and they need defensive improvement, but the Rams have a lot more skill-position players than the run of the mill 3-13 squad.
7) Will the San Diego Chargers be healthy to start the season?
How is Antonio Gates' toe? How is L.T.’s knee? How is Philip River’s knee? How much work will they see in preseason? No one doubts that the Chargers have the talent in place to make a run for Tampa. The concern is that they will be hampered by injuries from the get go.
Phillip Rivers has been throwing the ball at camp and appears to be throwing the ball with excellent velocity. The San Diego Union reported that he appeared to be thicker in the upper body. All indications seem to point to him being ready for the opener.
Tomlinson also appears to be a go for training camp. That is important because Turner bolted for Atlanta. The biggest question marks appear to be with Gates’ toe and Jamal Williams' knee.
Gates is a huge part of the Chargers' pass game. While Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson are solid targets, they are by no means superstar, No. 1 caliber players. Gates is the best tight end in football when healthy. His blend of speed, leaping ability, and size make him impossible to defend. If he is not able to go, that will be a huge blow to the Chargers.
On defense, Williams is a big part of the run defense. Without him at full strength, the Chargers will be more susceptible to the run. In a division with Denver, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden, that would be a huge blow.
I expect the Chargers to go 12-4 this season and work through their injury issues. This is still a young team that should be able to overcome those issues. However, a few big injuries are enough to derail even the best squads, and the Chargers are starting off the season with some big concerns.
6) Can Pittsburgh survive the toughest schedule in the NFL?
I think they will, but that schedule is brutal. Pittsburgh is like the Baltimore Ravens of a year ago. The Ravens were coming off a 13-3 season, but people were very concerned about a Week 12-14 stretch where they played San Diego, New England, and Indy.
Pittsburgh, this season, draws an even tougher slate. They play Indy, San Diego, New England, and Dallas in four out of five weeks from Week 10-14. Most people have those four teams somewhere in their top five or six rankings in the NFL.
I think the Steelers have a lot of things going for them that the Ravens didn’t in 2007. Big Ben gives the Steelers the play at quarterback that a team needs to survive a stretch like that. McNair and Boller didn’t do that for the Ravens.
I think the Steelers have more players on offense that can score points. I think the defense is in good shape. It also helps to have Cincinnati in the middle of that stretch.
That is a team that the Steelers can regain offensive confidence against, should they struggle to start that stretch.
The bottom line is that the Steelers still have a good team, and I think people are getting a little too caught up in the schedule and in Cleveland’s offseason additions. This is still the Steelers’ division.
That said, it is imperative that Pittsburgh stay healthy and they don’t get off to a poor start and lose games early in the season that they should take care of. They need to beat the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, and the Texans. They need to play well at home.
They aren’t going to go 16-0 against that schedule, but they should be able to finish around 10-6 or 11-5. However, if things don’t go their way, the schedule will do them no favors and could knock them on the ground fast. The Steelers have little-to-no margin for error.
5) Can the New York Giants repeat as Super Bowl champions?
They could, but I think it is very unlikely. Critics of the NY Giants are going to start with an Eli Manning bashing. I’m just going to look at it by the numbers. The New York Giants beat the Buccaneers soundly, 24-14. Then they beat the Cowboys by three points, intercepting Romo in the end zone to close the game.
They intercepted Favre in overtime to beat the Packers by three points. They won the Super Bowl by three points against New England.
This is not a team that ran away with the playoffs. It is a team that got hot at the end of the season, played at a very high level, both physically and mentally, and caught a lot of good breaks. To expect a team to win that many close games a second year in a row is not realistic.
The New York Giants had a lot of losses this offseason. Strahan is a Hall of Famer and the leader of this team. He is no longer there. Wilson, Mitchell, and Torbar left via free agency. Shockey was traded to the Saints. That is a lot of talent to lose. They drafted well, but those players will need time to develop.
Then there is Eli Manning. When all the dust settles, he still has a 54.7 career completion percentage, has never thrown for more than 3,800 yards, has never thrown for more than 25 touchdowns, and he has never thrown for less than 15 interceptions in a season in which he started 16 games.
He has a career 73.4 quarterback rating. I expect him to play his best season this year. I think the playoffs were no fluke, and I think he turned the corner. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 picks, and a rating in the mid to high 80s is realistic. The NY Giants should make the playoffs as a wild card.
Once there, anything is possible. But I don’t see them having another run to the Super Bowl. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL, and the Giants didn’t show me enough in the playoffs last year, or the offseason, to make me think we are in the midst of an emerging dynasty.
I think it is a very talented team that peaked at the right time and made the most of a tremendous opportunity. They deserve credit for their accomplishment, but also deserve to be viewed based on their talent going into this season, not their play to end last season.
4) Will Dallas win its first playoff game since 1996?
If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC this season, it isn’t ever going to happen. In 2006, Tony Romo had only started a handful of games. Last season, under new coach Wade Phillips, they raced out to a 12-1 record before finishing 1-3.
Terrell Owens was injured late in the season, and Romo again played poorly in the playoffs.
This season, they seem to have it all. T.O., Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten give them all the skill-position players they could ask for. Romo is entering his third season as a starter. The offensive line is stacked with three Pro Bowl players.
The defense added Zach Thomas, Pacman Jones, and Mike Jenkins. If the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game this year, they have no excuses. If they can’t make it to the Super Bowl, they will have had a disappointing season.
The problem the Cowboys have is that they have people that traditionally come up small in the playoffs, and I’m not even talking about Romo. It is not fair to give Romo that tag after appearing in only two playoff games. I’m talking about T.O. and Phillips.
For all of T.O.’s regular-season success since becoming a star receiver in the 1998 season, he is 2-6 in the playoffs. He had a fantastic game against the New York Giants when the 49ers overcame a 38-14 third-quarter deficit. He had nine receptions for 177 yards and two touchdowns. He also played well in the Super Bowl with Philly.
Other than that, he has a bunch of games under 100 yards and with very low touchdown output. Owens has six catches for 75 yards and one touchdown in his two Dallas playoff losses. He had four catches for 35 yards and zero touchdowns in a 2002 playoff loss to the Bucs. He had four catches for 40 yards in a 2001 playoff loss to the Packers. That just won't get the job done.
Part of that is because he tends to be hurt at the end of the season. That was the case in 2004, 2006, and 2007. He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to bring his A-game for the Cowboys to win.
Then there is Wade Phillips. He has a 61-42 record as a head coach, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Part of that can be blamed on a Music City Miracle, but part of the debacle last year was his fault. That team looked fat and comfortable against New York.
This year, there are no excuses. They should have all the talent and motivation to get the job done. If the Cowboys give a bad show in the playoffs, he isn’t going to have another crack at it. I look for the Cowboys to win that first playoff game and to be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
3) Will Peyton Manning be ready for the season opener?
It’s difficult to say at this point. Surgeries have so many variables that Manning will not be able to control. Infection is always the biggest worry. Given that he has never missed a game in his career, and given that he has a history of healing fast and taking care of his body, I would be shocked if he wasn’t ready to go.
The problem for Indy is that they don’t get a cakewalk-type schedule to open the season and allow Manning to get back in the flow. They open at home against Chicago, travel to Minnesota, and return home to face Jacksonville. If he starts off slowly, the schedule has the potential to put the Colts in an early-season hole.
That is something foreign to this team in recent years. Since 2000, the Colts are 20-4 in September. Their last September loss was a 27-24 game on Sept. 9, 2004, at New England.
Peyton Manning isn’t going to lose chemistry with his receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai have a lot of experience in this offense. The offensive line has been together for a while. The question is more based on ability.
If the knee is sore, will Manning be able to make the throws with the same accuracy and velocity that he is accustomed to? How much mobility will the injury take away?
Peyton Manning is a prolific passer, and I am not betting against him. I think he will be sharp and ready to go to start the season. I look for him to have another Peyton Manning-like year.
2) Can New England, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss duplicate their 2007 success?
The schedule actually lines up better for them in 2008 than 2007. In 2007, the Patriots had eight games against playoff teams from 2006 on the schedule. In 2008, the Patriots have just four.
The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2008, based on last season’s record, at .387. Furthermore, Randy Moss and Tom Brady have had a year to play together. Things look good for the Patriots to have a great year.
I think the Patriots will have a great year. What they won’t have is a historic year, like they did in 2007. The New England Patriots were starting to slow down by Week Nine last year. From the Week Nine game against the Colts to the Super Bowl, the Patriots averaged 29.5 points per game, compared to the first eight games where they averaged 41.4 points per game.
Tom Brady had 30 touchdowns and two interceptions in his first eight games. He had 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in his last 11 games of the season. Moss had 11 touchdowns in his first eight games and 13 touchdowns in his last 11 games. Wes Welker also slowed in the second half of the season.
I’m not saying this team played bad the second half of the season. They won 10 of those last 11 games and the loss was by three points. What I am saying is that they were immortal the first eight games of 2007, and after that, they were a team that won some big games, but played seven games that were decided by 10 points or less.
What I expect are the Patriots to pick up where they left off in the 2007 season, not where they started the 2007 season. I think 4,000 to 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdown passes are likely for Brady. I think Moss will have 80-90 catches for 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-15 touchdowns.
I think the Patriots will not be able to run the table a second-consecutive year, based on the losses they had on defense, and the fact that their offense won’t be so explosive. 13-3 is a realistic record. The schedule looks pretty easy to start. I think the Patriots will be primed to lose their Week Six game at San Diego.
1) Where does Brett Favre play in 2008, and if not Green Bay, how do the Packers fare without him?
I’m done trying to guess this. It keeps taking a lot of unpredictable turns. Based on what the Packers are communicating publicly, it seems as if they are ready to go with Aaron Rodgers, whether he plays the camp of all camps or has one to forget.
Thompson and McCarthy seem to be 100 percent behind him. Whether people agree with that position doesn’t matter. Brett Favre is no longer the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.
That makes it hard to see Favre in a Packer uniform for the start of the season. I can’t imagine he would want to hold a clipboard, or that the Packers would want him to do that.
Thompson is already referring to the Packer players as No. 4’s former teammates. That means he will return to retirement and possibly come out should Rodgers get injured. It might also be possible another quarterback gets injured, and the Packers would agree to deal him. I think it is very possible he never plays again.
As far as how the Packers do in 2007, I picked an 8-8 season before Favre retired, and the pressure on Rodgers to perform will be at an all-time high. If he starts slow, the call for No. 4’s name will be heard throughout Lambeau Field and the media.
It is so hard to replace a legend, even with the greatest of coaches. Mike Shanahan is 130-78 since he took over in Denver back in 1995. However, his career is a tale of two parts. From 1995 to 1998, he went 47-17, which is .734. He was 7-1 in three playoff appearances and won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998.
However, since 1998, he is only 83-61, which is a .576 percentage. He is 1-4 in the playoffs and has not been back to a Super Bowl.
It hasn’t been as if the cupboard has been bare in Denver since 1998. He was able to replace Terrell Davis after the Super Bowl runs, and the defense has had some good seasons. What Shanahan has sought, and not been able to find, is a replacement for John Elway.
Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler have all tried. They have had mixed levels of success, with Jake Plummer being the most successful, and Jay Cutler showing the most promise. However, without John Elway, Mike Shanahan has been an above-average coach.
That isn’t meant to diminish what Shanahan has accomplished. In my book, he should be in the Hall of Fame. All the great coaches need great quarterback play to win. What we don’t know is if Mike McCarthy is a good head coach, or if Favre made him look better than he was.
Mike Sherman looked like a good head coach when he took over, and that quickly faded, even with Favre there through it all. We don’t know what Rodgers can do. 59 career passes is not enough to make a determination.
You could tell me the Packers could go 4-12 or 12-4, and I could really agree or disagree. There are too many unknowns on this team. Given the history or replacing legendary quarterbacks, first-year quarterback struggles, the tougher first-place schedule that features the AFC South, and a hold-out by Ryan Grant, who was their only rushing offense in 2007, and I think 8-8 is a fair guess at this time.
I don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs without Favre.
So what is your burning question for 2008? Do you think I answered these on the head, or do you think I got it all wrong? Let me know your thoughts.
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