I am a little late with this week's preview because this is actually last week's preview. Before we dive in, I want to again address some concerns people are having. Perhaps debunking a few myths will help.
1.) Talented young players will get better after having a year in the system.
This is a myth only in as much as it is universally applied. If every young player got better every year, every team would be good. That just simply is not the case, nor will it ever be the case.
That means all you Raider fans can settle down about the young talent on your team, and the same for you angry Redskin fans who believe your young secondary and inexperienced quarterback are ready for the big time.
2.) A new coach is better than a "bad" coach.
This is the "grass is always greener" theory. We can apply this one to the AFC North, since that is what we're here for today. Brian Billick became a scapegoat for the Ravens' 5-11 season, but remember, he went 13-3 the season prior AND won them a Super Bowl.
If a team doesn't get better, a new coach won't help THAT much. New Baltimore coach John Harbough has serious work in front of him. He's stuck with a roster that has only gotten older and slower where it was talented (defense), and younger and inexperienced where it had been solid (offense).
That does not translate into success for a team. The coach can help, but the team has to have better players to win more games.
Listen, you're excited about your team. Your GM just drafted that hot SEC running back several spots later than his talent warrants, and you're pumped. Don't set your expectations too high.
Additionally, new coaches almost always take some time to get it right. Norv Turner inherited the uber-talented Chargers, and they didn't play anywhere near their potential until mid-season practically.
If you say your young player will get better, and I say he won't, then we're both right because neither of us really knows for sure, and that is the beauty of sports.
That being said, let's jump in.
Bengals (2007 Record: 7-9)
6 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Charles Cole 11 months ago
I'm a bit confused by your postscript to the Steeler analysis, in which you wrote:
"I have the Steelers as the division winner and the Browns as the Wild Card, with the same record, but by virtue of the Steelers' superior projected record against like opponents. With a split of the head-to-head games, and the same record against the division, common-game Win/Loss differential would be the tiebreaker"
While you're clearly addressing the common opponents in the AFC South and NFC East, somehow the following factoid got lost in the mix here:
AFC East and AFC West Opponents for the presumptive AFC favorites:
Pittsburgh: New England and San Diego
Cleveland: Buffalo and Denver
Am I missing something here? This looks to be an outstanding chance for the Browns to pick up two games on Pittsburgh.
To your credit, unlike most bloggers this offseason, you acknowledge that the Steelers may have some O line issues in '08. I think this has the potential of turning out to be an Achilles heel for Pittsburgh. They lost two all-pro O linemen in a mere two years (C Jeff Hartings after '06 and G Alan Faneca after last year). Faneca's reported replacement (Kemoeatu) started their camp on the PUP list with a triceps injury. Key pass protector LT Marvel Smith is also starting slowly with a groin injury. This hardly bodes well for the Steelers, given the defensive units they will be facing this year: Dallas, Indy, NY Giants, San Diego, New England, Jacksonville, Baltimore (twice), and an apparently greatly improved Cleveland defense (twice). Those could be 10 very tough games for Mr. Rothlisberger and for the Pittsburgh running game, too.
As to the defensive side of the ball, the Steeler D line starters (and primary backups) are all over 30 now and this is often the time when nagging, pesky little injuries start cropping up, such as was in evidence last year with Casey Hampton's hamstring and A. Smith's pec tear. Hampton is already in Tomlin's doghouse after showing up in camp completely out of shape and about 30 pounds overweight which left him running laps instead of practicing. And, although Palomalu's knee is probably healed, he begins camp with a hammy problem, too. I imagine Cleveland's O line is licking their chops at getting some more shots at these guys. Should be interesting.
But, as you point out in your lead, none of us knows for sure. That's why they play the games. This season in the AFC North does promise to be very, very interesting. Let the games begin!
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EJL EJL 11 months ago
Uh... to the last poster (Kyle) Billick is long long gone.
On to AFCN - I've said it before I'll say it again. I severely doubt anyone in the AFCN will have a record above 9-7. With the divisions they play, playing eachother twice it is going to be tough for all. As someone mentioned above the SoS games will be severe leveling games in the division.
Pit will have problems with the O Line and Ben holds the ball too long anyway. That and their (truly) aging D will come back to haunt them. I think they will be the downside surprise.
Cle - will have an improved D and slightly less flash in O. Opponents will see it coming now and plan accordingly.
Cinci - the D is still not improved anough and who knows how long Chad will behave.
Balt - is the wild card. Their D is not as old as many like to pretend it is and no one knows what the O will look like. Troy is the one who has the QB job to lose not Kyle BTW. If Harhaugh doesn't kill or mortally wound the O line trying to get them to gel they might be a upside surprise.
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Peter Bukowski 11 months ago
Agree with your assessment of the division although it was tough last year and two teams finished with double digit win totals. This will be a tough division and Baltimore is really the only team with a good chance of being swept in a season series by any of the other three.
Also, the QB job in Balitmore has been up in the air since training camp started. True, Troy Smith has looked considerably better running the kind of no huddle offense Harbaugh and his staff have been working on this off-season, but no official starter has been named. All three QB's including Joe Flacco have taken reps with the first team.
In my opinion, the best option is Smith and I believe he will win the job outright, but I think the Ravens organization would like to give Kyle Boller one last opportunity to take the job. Don't be surprised if Smith wins the job to see Boller tossed and a low-money veteran signed as an insurance policy.
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Charlie Cox 11 months ago
Has anyone looked at the Brown's schedule?
They open with the Dallas Cowboys who appear to look like the Yankees of the 90s. Not to mention they have to play the Steelers, Jags, and Giants along with 4 other games before their bye. Now I know that they play Pittsburgh in Cleveland, but to say the Steeler-Brownie games aren't always full of adrenaline and pissed-off Steelers, it's no stretch to say that the Steel Curtain will shut down the Brownies in Cleveland AGAIN for the fifth year running. Also, games in Cinci and Baltimore, IN Cinci and Baltimore will be exciting division rivalries, especially after the Browns embarassed the Cinci defense last year. I'm not saying that those two poorly talented football teams will win, but they will give Cleveland a run for the money. Steelers win the division. Cleveland gets wildcard.
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Charles Cole 11 months ago
Nice try, Charlie, but you're again relying on the past to forever predict the future. NFL = not for long. The once vaunted Steeler "Steel Curtain" is starting to develop some rust, as in age on the front with the starters and the backups. The Browns' offensive line and a fellow named Jamal Lewis may have a lot to say about whether your Steelers "shut down" the Browns. And, if I were you, I wouldn't get too deep into looking at the Browns' schedule. Take a peek into the mirror, my friend. For the record, the Steelers are due to play THE toughest schedule in the NFL this year. Oh, and while you're peering into that mirror, check out your O line. Update for Charlie: you haven't replaced Hartings or Faneca yet, so you might want to do that before making predictions about how you're going to thrash the vastly improved Browns with your "full of adrenaline and pissed-off Steelers". Again, NFL = not for long. In the case of Pittsburgh, it is looking more like it means "not forever". Y'all have had a nice run. Now, move over and accept the modern NFL reality of parity.
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david newman 11 months ago
You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you?
Landon Johnson doesn't play for the Bengals.
You also failed to mention the addition of TE Ben Utecht, and the return of Chris Perry.
Nothing to write about the Bengals D-Line? what about Jason Shirley?
Or the loss of Justin Smith?
I know i just sound like an angry Bengals fan, but good recievers won't help Jamal Lewis run, just like they didn't help Rudi Johnson.
You're also ignoring the intangibles. The last time a team had back to back winning seasons in the AFC North was the Steelers in 04-05.
You have the Steelers not only with the same record as last season, in one of the toughest divisions, but against the hardest schedule in the history of the NFL (based on wins and losses). And the Browns making the Wildcard with the eighth hardest is very highly unlikely.
(Steelers have the hardest schedule in history, Bengals and browns are tied for eighth, and Baltimore has tenth while the Patriots have the easiest in history)
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