Houston Texans Fantasy Projections

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Houston Texans Fantasy Projections
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If you ask Jeff Van Gundy about the Houston Texans he will tell you three things: he has season tickets, they will win the Super Bowl, and that Matt Schaub is the greatest quarterback in the NFL and if you disagree… he will latch onto you like he’s, well, himself, and you’re Alonzo Mourning’s leg. He may not be entirely accurate, but one thing is for sure, he has picked a decent squad to follow. The Texans are fun to watch and they light up the scoreboards weekly, but will they win the Super Bowl? or even the AFC South? Ahead I will address the Houston Texans key fantasy targets, as well as analyze their schedule and coaching strategies for the upcoming NFL season.

Houston Texans 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

Quarterback

Matt Schaub: Once Matt Schaub was able to step out of the shadows of Michael Vick in

Atlanta and into the cleats of a starting NFL quarterback he’s done nothing but improve. When you consider, on paper at least, that he works with a one to two weapon offense he has far exceeded expectations coming off of a massive 4,770 yd/ 29 TD season. When you crunch the numbers it’s easy to see why people expect such big things from him in 2010, and they should. I don’t think we’re going to see the marked improvement that he has shown over his three year tenure, simply because it was so dramatic, but he will be a more polished quarterback this year and his efficiency will improve even if his yard totals and touchdowns do not follow suit. Don’t get me wrong, he will win you games, but won’t do it every week. Schaub will go to the air often and no matter who is on the field he’ll produce another 4,500 yd/ 25 TD season. The only concern with Schaub is that when his attempt numbers increase his interceptions rise accordingly, so if you are in a big penalty league this should be a concern, albeit a minor one.

Running Back

Over the past few seasons the Houston Texans have been using Steve Slaton as their primary runner, but have had mixed results at best (Last season, regardless of injuries, was not in the top-40 in rushing yards) and as a team were ranked 30th in the league in total rushing offense with only 92.2 yds/g. In other words, you are not going to find your fantasy stud running back on the Texans, but they could be solid back-ups in deep leagues because they tend to catch a lot of balls out of the backfield.

Steve Slaton: Primary back in a shallow backfield. Has great speed in the open field and is shifty when given space, but lacks the size and brute strength to break through the line when they need him to. The main concern with Slaton in 2010 is that he is coming off of a neck injury that still has him sidelined and will take some time before he can get used to being hit and return to the form he had in ’08 when he rushed for 1,200+ yards. Slaton will still get his fair share of touches, but with his health in question look for the Texans to go running back by committee for most of the season with Ben Tate and Arian Foster leaching some of Slaton’s numbers.

Wide Receiver

Andre Johnson will continue his dominance and rack up major fantasy numbers

Andre Johnson: Arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, calm yourself Larry Fitzgerald fans, I said arguably. Speed, size, agility, the guy is the total package and it is on display week-in and week-out. Johnson is the key to the Texan offense with his ability to stretch the opposition, which creates massive openings for guys like Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. Andre Johnson will be one of the first three wide outs taken in just about every draft and is a top starter if you’re fortunate enough to get him. The last two seasons he has caught at least 8 touchdowns, made 100 receptions, and exceeded 1,569 receiving yards with no signs of slowing. No matter what league you’re in, all of the above are going to help you win games. As long as he can stay healthy and Matt Schaub is under center, this tandem will continue to make big things happen in 2010 with 1,500-1,650 yds and 9 touchdowns.

Tight End

Owen Daniels: The big question for the Texans is if Own Daniels will come back healthy and remain that way. Last year Daniels was well on his way to a 1,000 yard season before blowing out his ACL for the third time. A healthy Daniels provides a deep threat from the slot and is one of the best tight ends in the league down the field. Although the offense didn’t struggle without him last year, he adds another wrinkle and a different dynamic to their attack with his size and speed. On most passing downs Daniels is the second option so it is important for them to get him involved in the offense early and establish him as a threat. Regardless of the touches the wide receivers get, Daniels will still put in a solid 900-1,100 yard season and be a constant threat in the red zone with 6-9 touchdowns.

Defense

In order to be known as more than just the guy who wrecked Tom Brady's knee, Bernard Pollard needs to continue to be a stud in the Texans secondary

The Houston Texans defense made headlines this offseason for all the wrong reasons when their leading tackler, and AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year, Brian Cushing violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy and will be forced to miss the first four games of the season. This is a major blow for the Texans who already struggle with consistency on the defensive end and were forced to bring in a new tier of players with the loss Dunta Robinson. This puts a lot of pressure on the youthful Texans secondary where their first round draft pick Kareem Jackson is competing for a starting spot with other young CBs Brice McCain and Glover Quin. They are not major fantasy contributors as a whole with only 14 INTs, 30 sacks and 3 TDs, but they do have some solid individual performers in Mario Williams (9.0 Sacks) and Safety Bernard Pollard (4 INTs/102 tackles in 13 games). There is definitely a lot of room for improvement with such a young team, but the question remains: who will step up and fill the void left by Brian Cushing? Only time will tell on that one, but for now they will make due with who they’ve got: Xavier Adibi, Kevin Bentley, Darnell Bing and rookie Darryl Sharpton.

Schedule

Wk Date Opponent

1 Sun, Sept 12th Indianapolis Colts

2 Sun, Sept 19th @ Washington Redskins

3 Sun, Sept 26th Dallas Cowboys

4 Sun, Oct 3rd @ Oakland Raiders

5 Sun, Oct 10th New York Giants

6 Sun, Oct 17th Kansas City Chiefs

7 BYE WEEK

8 Mon, Nov 1st @ Indianapolis Colts

9 Sun, Nov 7th San Diego Chargers

10 Sun, Nov 14th @ Jacksonville Jaguars

11 Sun, Nov 21st @ New York Jets

12 Sun, Nov 28th Tennessee Titans

13 Thurs, Dec 2nd @ Philadelphia Eagles

14 Mon, Dec 13th Baltimore Ravens

15 Sun, Dec 19th @ Tennessee Titans

16 Sun, Dec 26th @ Denver Broncos

17 Sun, Jan 2nd Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Schaub will continue to light up the scoreboards this season, although it may not match his '09 output

This season will definitely be a good indicator if they should be taken seriously as an up and coming Super Bowl contender, and what better way to prove it than open up the season at home against the defending AFC champs, right? It would be a major surprise if the Texans can manage to take the division from the Colts, but stranger things have certainly happened. I believe the Texans best hopes lie in pursuit of the Wild Card, but that is no easy task with the competition they face outside their division. The good news is that they get to play the schizophrenic Jaguars twice and the Chiefs going into their Bye, which could either boost their confidence or break them entirely with the daunting second half looming ahead. I see key wins being Week 13 at the Eagles and sweeping their final two away games at Tennessee and Denver in to finish the year strong and put them in the playoff contention.

Coaching Strategy

Offense

Offensively there isn’t a tremendous amount that the Houston Texans need to do differently, but there is definitely room for improvement in their current system. Everyone knows the Texans are more than capable through the air, but when they play teams with strong secondaries, like the Jets, they are going to need to find a way to produce on the ground. A lot of people thought they would take an offensive tackle early in the draft, but they waited til the later rounds, and seem confident in their current personnel to get the job done this year and open holes for Slaton, Tate and Foster to attack. If they can strike some sort of balance, even a 60-40 pass-to-run ratio as opposed to 70-30, that may be enough to force teams to play honest up front, open more seams for their wide outs, and keep Schaub off his back.

Defense

Mario Williams is finally proving that he is the player we all thought he would be coming out of college

The key to the Texans’ success on the defensive side of the ball is going to lie in their linebacking unit. Without Cushing for the first four games of the season the Texans are going to have to put a lot of weight upon the veteran DeMeco Ryans and a few sets of inexperienced shoulders and hope that they can bear the weight. Everywhere else on the field the Texans have a strong balance between veteran players and younger talent. This could be the year that the Texans start to break out, but to do so they need to keep up with their rivals and stop floundering in the middle tier of team defenses. There are a lot of great individual playmakers but they need to find a defensive identity where individual talent translates into team success. They do not dominate in any singular defensive category, but what they need to accomplish every week with such a difficult schedule is to take their chances when the openings come and make sure they are within striking distance coming into the final two minutes because with their high-powered offense anything is possible.

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