Top Three Reasons Why Shane Carwin Will Defeat Brock Lesnar

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Top Three Reasons Why Shane Carwin Will Defeat Brock Lesnar

Brock Lesnar, the huge specimen of a man with natural athleticism and unnatural quickness, is soon to face Shane Carwin, a yet-to-be-defeated powerhouse of a striker with a wrestling base.

In gauging these two fighters, at face value the dilemma a Greek paradox shows itself. But after some analysis, it is apparent who truly holds the upper hand going into this match.

First, a necessary comparison.

 

Comparison of Both Fighters

Here we have two men that are apparently unstoppable in their division. Lesnar is the less experienced one, but Carwin has never been tested to a significant degree. Lesnar has lost, but it was out of sheer luck on Frank Mir's part, as Mir had taken the beating of a lifetime before landing a knee bar.

Thus far, Carwin has been the perfect fighter. He has ended all his fights in the first round, and he has submitted and knocked out other fighters by either standing and trading with them or outwrestling them. What little weakness he displayed against Gabriel Gonzaga was made up for by a half punch that dropped Gonzaga to the mat.

So here we have a massive beast, Lesnar, who has truly brought about an evolution in the sport and has yet to be beaten up, and we have Carwin, who has never lost and has knockouts and submissions on his record with every fight ending in the first round.

 

The most probable best-case scenario for each fighter is as follows:

1) Lesnar actually getting Carwin to the ground while smothering and ground-and-pounding him while possibly landing a good shot.

2) Carwin punching Lesnar square in the face, knocking him out.

 

The likelihood of either of these happening? Due to Carwin's size, it's unlikely that Lesnar will take Carwin down at will like he did against his other opponents, so the chance of it being a clean ground-and-pound match is slim. It is possible, but it's unlikely or would at least be a rough transition.

In the second scenario, Carwin has a good chance at getting at least one good hit in against Lesnar. For one, Carwin has done it to practically every other opponent he's faced. Two, Lesnar has openings in his stand-up game, as Randy Couture showed.

Two things to take into consideration, though, are Lesnar's ring rust and Carwin's lack of being tested in later rounds.

Lesnar has been out of competition for about a year now, and more importantly he is coming back from a life-threatening disease where he had once lost a ton of muscle. No doubt he has gained that muscle back, but ring rust is a real phenomenon, even for a guy like Lesnar.

As for Carwin, ending all his fights in the first round looks great on paper. Then again, nobody knows if he has it in him to go three rounds, much less five. This is a championship MMA match, not a wrestling match, and if Lesnar can get Carwin to the ground and wear him out for a round or two, nobody knows how Carwin will step up to the challenge.

That's not to say that Carwin can't or won't be able to last if that scenario occurs—only that we can't say one way or the other based on empirical evidence.

Then again, ending all 12 of your fights in the first round is nothing to be disappointed in. In fact, Lesnar shouldn't be focusing on taking the fight to the fifth round as much as he should be worried about making it out of the first round, where he is at a statistical disadvantage.

 

Breakdown and Prediction

At first, I did not want to make a prediction in this match because I felt I couldn't. Intuitively, neither fighter has the advantage. Both best-case scenarios could whimsically happen in a sheer moment, and the volatility of such an outcome leads one to initially avoid making a prediction altogether.

But after breaking the fight down and looking at Carwin's experience advantage, striking advantage, and wrestling arsenal that can at least somewhat nullify Lesnar's wrestling offense, it should be safe to say that Carwin has a statistical advantage over Lesnar.

Lesnar's only hope is getting Carwin to the ground and ground-and-pounding him, hoping for a TKO victory as early in the match as possible. Lesnar proved in his fight with Heath Herring that he does have the cardio to go at least three rounds, but he also showed that he was willing to take a few hits to get a dominant position against Couture.

The trouble is that Carwin is no man to take a few hits from. This may seem like it has the potential for the classic striker vs. grappler scenario, but this is much more detailed a fight.

Both fighters are so massive, powerful, tactical, and experienced that there is one major difference in their styles: Carwin prefers to strike, while Lesnar prefers to ground-and-pound.

On the whole, though, Carwin has probability on his side of landing a good strike, a significant size advantage over Lesnar's other opponents, three times as much MMA experience as Lesnar, and a solid wrestling base, thus helping to nullify any wrestling advantage Lesnar usually holds in his matches.

I realize that it is very difficult to make a prediction for this fight. There are too many unknown variables, and the one that is known of both men nullifies itself: brute force. Even though both men have a chance to win, they are equally as powerful, albeit in different phases of fighting.

Really, it comes down to who can land something first. If Carwin lands a strike first, it's over. If Lesnar lands a takedown, he'll have to work really hard in the beginning to gain a TKO, but he'll probably have to go more than one round to do so.

The longer the fight goes, the less of an advantage Lesnar has, since one, the ref can stand them up if he does succeed in taking Carwin to the ground, and two, a TKO in this case would probably take more than one round.

Carwin can wrestle almost as well as Lesnar, which means Lesnar will have to land more shot attempts than Carwin has to land punches.

 

The top three reasons why Carwin will defeat Lesnar are as follows:

1) Carwin can strike more effectively than Lesnar, and empirically speaking, it will take Carwin only one hit to put Lesnar to sleep.

For Lesnar to dominate on the ground, he will likely have to succeed in multiple takedown attempts, as Carwin's wrestling base will likely nullify a complete domination on the ground by Lesnar, which means he will have more work to do versus Carwin's one shot.

2) Carwin has three times as many fights as Lesnar and has ended them all in the first round with a victory, and statistically speaking, Lesnar will not only fail to take this to the second round, he will not get out of the first.

3) Carwin finished Mir in half the time that Lesnar did and by KO.

Need more evidence? Mir was smaller both times he fought Lesnar, and he even won one of those matches by submitting the gigantic wrestler.

Carwin, on the other hand, defeated a much larger, stronger Mir in half the time and by KO.

This is probably the most accurate, tangible comparison between both fighters' fighting potential, and being that Mir was considerably smaller when he fought Lesnar both times and that Lesnar lost one of those matches, the chances again favor Carwin.

 

Given Carwin's experience, his ability to nullify Lesnar's wrestling, and his statistical fight-ending advantage, in addition to Lesnar needing more opportunities than Carwin to actually win the match, my prediction is thus:

Carwin, round one, by knockout.

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