I recently wrote my NFL Mock Draft for 2010, which to date has had over 8,000 reads.
In that mock, I had HB C.J. Spiller of Clemson tumbling to Philadelphia.
Spiller, however, appears to be the best running back in this year's draft, so it makes people wonder how I could have Spiller tumble that far.
Part of the problem is that the 2010 draft is deep, which means there will be good value picks likely into the third round and possibly beyond.
I have pass rushers and tackles going early.
The fact has been that NFL clubs don't value a great running back anymore. The halfback has been relegated to an option for the quarterback, and typically NFL teams now carry two running backs instead of only one.
Nevertheless, two of those teams currently have above-average halfbacks: Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville and Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo. Meanwhile, Oakland has invested heavily in Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.
I'm inclined to believe that Jacksonville will eye a receiver such as Dez Bryant and Buffalo will complete the revamped offensive line with a left tackle such as Trent Williams.
Unless Jacksonville trades up, I have S Eric Berry and DE Jason Pierre-Paul going ahead of the Jaguars, which would leave Bryant as the best available player that fits a need.
Mr. Davis will surely wince a few times when he passes on Spiller and Taylor Mays to take OT Bruce Campbell—only because, if Mr. Davis had it his way, he'd take all three and make them race giraffes with Darrius Heyward-Bey.
And then fire muskets at their feet to make 'em dance, dance! Or some such nonsense.
As for Buffalo, a left tackle would help two ends of the offense, passing and running, so why take a player that helps in only one?
I've read rumors, though, that the Bills want to trade Lynch, so if that happened, Spiller would be a good pick at ninth overall.
Washington would be an ideal place for Lynch, where he could flourish in the Mike Shanahan offense. This is presumptuous, but Campbell seems on the outs in Washington, and so a swap of Lynch for Campbell would make sense.
Problem is that, deals that make too much sense often don't happen.
Alternatively, the Bills could trade Lynch to the Chargers but would only receive a low first-round pick, whereas a trade with Washington could land a quarterback.
So unless the Bills make some bold moves rather than stand pat, I don't see Spiller going in the top 15 or even the top 20, because those teams have more pressing needs.