San Francisco 49ers' Offseason Analysis: Quarterbacks

While the season continues for the Jets, Colts, Vikings, and Saints, for teams like the San Francisco 49ers the offseason has begun. The long process to prepare for the 2010 NFL Draft is already underway and one of the most critical phases is the evaluation of the current roster.

Who to cut, who to keep, which positions require depth, which positions require wholesale change—these are all things that must be closely considered over the course of the next few months.

We shall mirror those efforts in our own way here.

This is the first in a series of articles discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the 2010 49ers. Some editions will cover a position as a whole, some will discuss particular individuals.

All will serve to give us an idea of what the 49ers will be facing in the coming Draft.

In this edition, we look at the quarterback position.

Overview

Quarterback has been a tricky position since Steve Young took his leave of the franchise in 1999. The fact that a quarterback is not only competing with the ghost of Young, but also Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana, has always been cause of a little bit of extra pressure. Still, in 2005 the team felt they had found their replacement in a young University of Utah  quarterback named Alex Smith.

Things haven't quite worked out that way. Smith has battled injuries and numerous coaching staff changes throughout his career, appearing to lose his starting job once and for all to back-up Shaun Hill at the close of the 2008.

However, as has been the case often in the last decade, things did not work out as planned.

While Hill was effective in moving the chains, he struggled to put points on the board and while he protected the ball well he lacked the arm strength to stretch the field and utilize some of the passing attack weapons the 49ers had.

During a Week Seven game against the Houston Texans, where the 49ers failed to score in the first half, Hill was benched in favor of Smith. Smith went on to lead the team to within three points of the Texans and while San Francisco lost 24-21, Smith secured the starting job back.

Smith kept the role throughout the end of the 2009 season.

Player Analysis

Alex Smith

Smith's strength is often also ultimately his downfall. He can throw the ball a long way, but that's where he is at his most inaccurate. However, at this point he looks to be the starter in 2010.

And why not? While Shaun Hill took better care of the ball, the offense was stagnant in many ways under him. Smith's arm allows the 49ers to stretch the field which in turn pulls defenses off the line and allows marquee (and current Pro Bowl) running back Frank Gore to find more room, or at least hit the line before first contact more frequently.

If you look at Smith, he's got beating on the small teams (Lions, Rams) down but struggles against more opportunistic defenses (such as the Cardinals and Eagles). He needs to continue to choose his spots more carefully—as he did against the Packers in Week 11 (a trio of touchdowns to one interception), but failed to do against the Titans (a pair of touchdowns but three interceptions).

In the end, the gamble with Smith is worth it. His arm strength allows him to utilize players such as Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan in ways Hill cannot and Davis is not ready to.

If he can stay healthy, the 49ers have a quarterback who can do enough to keep them in the hunt throughout the season.

Shaun Hill

When Hill took over during the 2008 season, it was thought to be permanent. Perhaps it would have been too, if things had fallen the way we expected and the team had merely been a power run team. However new Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye (the sixth different offensive coordinator six years) decided to open things up a little more.

It's not that Hill played badly. In fact, he protected the ball and showed consistency in the five-and-a-half games he started. The problem became his inability to spark the offense and score from the red zone. It's fine to move the chains—but you need to finish.

Hill couldn't do that and during Week Seven's game against the Houston Texans, the team turned to Smith for a spark and he provided it.

Shaun Hill is accurate on short and medium routes but lacks the arm strength to stretch the field the way the 49ers would like to. He's a good caretaker with the potential for more—just not really in the current scheme.

Nate Davis

Davis has been an obsession for many (including this writer) since the team drafted him in the fifth round of the 2009 NFL Draft. 

If you're not a San Francisco fan but find the name strangely familiar, it's probably because of the discussion of the former Ball State quarterback's learning disability. He definitely has had issues processing playbooks before, but was successful in college despite that.

It's one of the reasons the 49ers have brought him around very slowly.

It's difficult to say for sure what Davis is capable of in the NFL as he barely took any first team snaps in practice and had no snaps during games.

Looking at his college career, Davis was very productive and set school records as well as winning Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. He threw for good yardage and touchdown totals with very few interception.

Davis is a bit shorter than NFL Scouts liked, but has a quick delivery, good arm strength with the ability to go deep while not losing any accuracy.

In pre-Draft profiles, Davis was actually compared (favorably) to Alex Smith.

Davis is a project, albeit one that many have high hopes for. It is unlikely he will be 'ready for Prime Time' next year though hopefully he will get the opportunity to practice more frequently with someone other than the practice squad.

It would behoove the team to find out how much of an investment to make in the young quarterback if just to help determine what their choices are long term.

Diagnosis

With Alex Smith you get a fair amount of both good and bad. However, I believe he gives the 49ers enough room to avoid having to pull a quarterback with one of their two first round picks in the 2010 draft.

Much can happen between now and April, but unless a can't-miss prospect falls in their lap, the team should focus on both lines, secondary help and a dynamic kick returner.

Whether Smith has emerged again as the future starter of this franchise remains to be seen, but he will give the team enough time to continue to build without risking a high pick on a streaky position while remaining competitive.

It might be a wise move—if he can hack it—to see if Davis is ready to be a backup as well, since Hill doesn't fit the offense. If not, Hill should be sufficient to hold the fort down for a short time if Smith gets hurt.  

Of course, given Smith's injury history, this is a concern and that's why I believe giving Davis a shot at the backup job could prove a more prudent step (again if the staff feels he is ready) since he mirrors Smith's abilities a little more. If Davis excels, even as a mere back-up, the offense would have a better chance of keeping any rhythm or momentum they had built up prior to any injury.

Again, this is not to say the team is locked up at the position long term, but spending a high pick on a quarterback is not a terrible necessity. Of course, the team should see what Free Agency has to offer (answer appears to be not much) but it is not as high an area of need as other positions are at this point and even money for that might better be served elsewhere.

The 49ers may still be rebuilding parts of their team, they are still in a position to not only be competitive, but perhaps wrest the NFC West from the Arizona Cardinals. With the possibility of Kurt Warner retiring, the team has the opportunity to take a step forward while they are still developing their core team.

While the quarterbacks on their roster are clearly not the next Joe Montana or Steve Young, they can help continue to build the future while also winning now.