NFL: Liver's 2009 Wild Card Picks

So, did anyone catch that little National Championship game last night? By popular request, The Liver will be posting a separate column later tonight that deals with the emotional and physical fallout of the game.
 
That being said, I’m drunker then Mariah Carey at The Palm Springs Film Festival right now, so watch out.

These are all tough games to pick this round. I think I drove myself crazy making arguments for why both teams could win.

That being said, all these games are tight and accurate (spread-wise) because bookmakers have more time to devote to them now that there are fewer games to handicap.

This is when handicapping is supposed to be its most difficult. Why? Because bookmakers know the NFL as well as any head coach or GM, and they know what the general public is going to go for.

Why do you think their lines are so close to what the final score is? This is what they do for a living. They know which way people are going to lean. They know that the vast betting public is going to take Dallas and New England in their respective games.

Honestly, I wouldn’t touch any of these games except maybe Green Bay vs. Arizona and possibly Dallas vs. Filthy if I’m putting money down because of the lines. Why? Because there’s no clear advantage or value in taking any game because of such tight spreads.

The Liver may pick every game for ego’s sake and for your reading pleasure, but there are maybe a handful of games each week that I would actually put money on. That number dwindles considerably once the playoffs start. Let's play.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY .

Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Mariah Carey, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 10-5-1

Final 2009 regular season record against the spread: 143-106-7 (.574)


Saturday, January 9

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (-2)
For some reason I’m the most apathetic about this game above all others this week. Maybe that’s because whichever team wins here will be an appetizer for the Colts or Chargers in the divisional round next week.

But from a gambling standpoint, this is one of the more fascinating games of the week. The line opened at Bengals laying four and is now down to two.

That means that John Q. America is high on the Jets bandwagon after that deceptive thrashing they gave the Bengals in the Week 17 finale.

First of all, this Jets team shouldn’t even be here. Jets fans know it. My friend Kim the Jets/Giants fan knows it. Even with the Jets destroying the Bengals in the season finale, I can’t see myself getting on the Jets bandwagon.

Sanchez hasn’t been a world beater this season, and if the Jets fall behind early, they’re Cobra Kai dead meat. Sanchez has struggled in bad weather situations, and if it’s choppy weather in Cincinnati for this game, he’s in big trouble.

Statistically, he got worse as the season went on. That being said, the Jets do have the best defense in the NFL on paper and the best running game in terms of yards per game.

Darrelle Revis has shown that he’s a top five shutdown corner who fears no receiver. In fact, no receiver has had more than 35 yards against him this season.

That includes Randy Moss (twice) and Andre Johnson. Ochocinco will have serious problems getting free from him, especially more so now because of the knee injury he suffered last week.

You can’t throw on the Jets, but you can run on them SOMEWHAT , and that’s what the Bengals are built for with Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson. That aside, the Bengals offense has stunk the last two months.

Carson Palmer has looked pathetic the last eight weeks of the season, and I’m being polite. A lot has to do with not having the late Chris Henry, as he was their only big play receiver. Think the Bengals wish they had resigned T.J. Houshmandzadeh now?

Palmer has to play better than he has recently and must have his head on a swivel to be aware of Rex Ryan’s many blitz packages.

I hate this game above all the other three in terms of picking because neither one of the teams are multi-dimensional.

Neither team can throw the ball effectively, so basically you’re trying to figure which team has the better defense and run game. On paper, that points to the Jets.

But—and this is what finally firmed up my decision here—going with a rookie QB (The Sanchize ) on the road in his first playoff game might have some wondering whether someone slipped some acid in The Liver’s beer last night during the Texas-Alabama game.

Rex Ryan is going to do everything possible to limit Sanchez’s throws. That’s why it’s imperative that the Jets play with a lead.

Just chew on this stat if you don’t believe me; the Jets ran the ball a league-high 607 times and threw the ball a league-low 393 times. Doesn't that just ooze confidence in you?

Can I see the Jets defense creating a turnover late in the game to decide it? Absolutely. Can I see Sanchez throwing a pick late in the game that decides it? You bet.

Do the Bengals inspire confidence in me? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. Avoid this one from a betting end. Pick: Cincinnati

Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)
This game opened with the Cowboys laying four and didn’t move. This is the only game of the four in which the spread didn’t move, so that means that Vegas saw good money on both sides.

First let me get the abundance of Cowboys confidence/cockiness out of me. If it weren’t for the f**king field goal kicker, what other glaring weakness could you point to right now on this Cowboys team?

Maybe the fact that every shotgun formation for the Cowboys offense seems to be initiated by Tony Romo shouting out “Omaha, Omaha?” And you still had Eagles jumping off sides last week.

The defense is playing better then any other in the NFC. Mike Jenkins is a top five shutdown corner in the league. DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Bradie James, and Jay Ratliff are swarming around opposing QBs and the football.
 
The offense has been marching up and down the field at will the last three weeks and dominating time of possession. Tony Romo is playing his best football at the right time.

The offensive line has, aside from some careless penalties (still a Cowboys Blue Plate Special, unfortunately), been playing as well as any in the league despite losing starting RT Marc Columbo, back on November 15 against the Packers.

If you don’t believe that, you need to see backup RT Doug Free blocking 50 yards down field for Felix Jones on his big TD run last week.

They have a better running game than the Eagles, and Felix Jones looks like he has his big-play legs back. Columbo should be ready for action this Sunday, which should make Romo happy.

In other news, Roy Williams is now officially the highest paid decoy in sports. He should be the third WR behind Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton right now.

I can’t wait to see who Detroit takes with our first round draft pick that we gave them. What is it with Jerry and these empty-our-draft-picks truck for these wide outs? See Joey Galloway for more evidence.

Okay...I got it out. Now comes the football realist side. The Eagles quit after the first half last week. It’s that simple. They knew they were going to face the Cowboys again later in the week, and they packed it in.

That wasn’t even close to their best game, and I don’t expect to see DeSean Jackson dropping wide open passes here. I don’t expect that kind of a half-assed effort from an Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb-led team this Saturday.

I expect to see Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott channel his Russell Crowe and unleash hell in the form of the Eagles blitz. I think the real chess match here will be between McDermott and Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

Dallas has been able to stop the big plays for the Eagles both times they’ve played, and that’s been what the Eagles have won games with this season.

They’re not a ball control team like Dallas has been. They’re like a fast break basketball team. If you can slow them down, you can beat them.

The Eagles need to play with the lead and let their defense settle in or they can’t win. Also remember that Andy Reid favors the pass over the run, which could also play into the hands of the Cowboys defense.

Don’t discount the magnitude of the loss of Eagles center Jamaal Jackson. You saw last week what Nick Cole is and how Jay Ratliff dominated him.

This is going to be a tight ball game and the pressure is still squarely on the Dallas Cowboys to win. The 110,000 fans expected to fill the Death Star need to be the loudest in the league.

The head coach who loses this game could endure hell much worse then anyone could imagine. Andy Reid will have to endure an enraged Filthy fan and media base that are unhappy that their season ended with two consecutive losses to the hated Dallas Cowboys. 

Just the thought makes my Cowboys pants go nuts, no pun intended. On the other end, Wade Phillips will have to endure more questions along the line of, “Why can’t you win one playoff game?” and, “Why can’t this franchise win one playoff game?”

Tony Romo has Mola Ram’d me (ripped out my heart and shown it to me while it was still beating) twice over the last four years in the playoffs with the bobbled snap against Seattle in the 2006 season, which was lovingly encored the following season with Romo throwing the pick in the end zone (damn you to hell R.W. McQuarters) against the Giants that sealed the win for them.

Not coincidentally, The Liver also went into three month tailspins after both playoff games where he went off the grid. Needless to say, after the events of the last 24 hours, a Cowboys loss could be severely hazardous to my health. Romo has to step up here and deliver a win.

Luckily, The Liver will be watching this game at Eric the Lions fan’s apartment with padded walls, no windows, and hot Russian chicks that know nothing about football. Unluckily, if that is a word, I also watched the Texas-Alabama game there last night.

And to think that if the Cowboys win, that would be the first playoff win The Liver will have enjoyed since he was 19.

I thought earlier, that I just wanted to win a playoff game, but not anymore. This Dallas Cowboys team is good enough to go to the Super Bowl, and there is no excuse not to get there. Yes, I just said it.

Four months ago, hell four weeks ago, I didn’t believe they had a chance in hell of making the playoffs, but they are actually doing what they haven't done the past decade and what Super Bowl-bound teams have to do: Get hot late in the season.

Yes, traditionally it is difficult to beat a team three times in a year. Dallas had chances in 1998 against Arizona (lost in the playoffs) and 2007 against the Giants (lost in the playoffs).

But, it can happen, most notably the 2008 Steelers beating the Ravens three times en route to a Super Bowl victory. And after Sunday, no team in the NFC scares me.

Not New Orleans, not Minnesota, not Arizona, not Green Bay, and certainly not Filthy anymore.

After doing some research, I was actually surprised that history favors the Cowboys here. This game will mark the 20th time that teams are playing in the postseason after one team swept the other. In the previous 19 games, the team that was 2-0 during the season is 12-7. Never would’ve thought that.

Spread-wise, I’m going to divest myself of emotion here and not drink the Cowboys beer that everyone seems to be drunk on right now. I like Dallas to win straight up, but you can’t expect Filthy to come out and get dominated for the second time in a week.

That being said…PUT THESE FILTHY DOGS DOWN, COWBOYS! Pick: Filthy


Sunday, January 10

Baltimore at New England (-3)
This game opened with the Patriots laying four and dropped a point. Joe Q. Public likes the Ravens a little here, I’d say. Call it the Wes Welker trickle down effect.

I never thought I’d say this, but I actually feel bad for Patriots fans. Losing Wes Welker in a meaningless game is akin to showing off your hot girlfriend in a bar just to rub it in other guys’ faces and then watching her walk out with the fattest, ugliest drunk, even though she’s sober.

Just no sane explanation, and I don't even know if that analogy made any sense at all. There is no way that this doesn’t impact the Patriots negatively, although I think they’ll get away with it here.

Welker was arguably the best receiver in the league this year with an insane amount of catches for first downs. 

Julian Edelman has shown that he’s no slouch, but he may only be 60 percent of Welker because Welker catches everything thrown to him. Randy Moss, Fred Taylor, and Ben Watson have to pick up the slack.

Tom Brady has three broken ribs and a broken finger, so that offensive line better shelter him like baby Jesus in the manger.

As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco hasn’t looked as good as he did last season, and he seems unsure of himself. Then again, if his receivers could catch balls, they would’ve had at least two to three more wins and might have had a bye this week.

The defense is good albeit slightly banged up, but they have been prone to awful penalties at the worst times in games this year. If they’re smart, they’ll sick the dogs on Brady and knock him around.

Ed Reed will be back which makes a huge difference in the Ravens secondary. The Ravens running game with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee must be dominant, but if they hope to beat the Patriots, they have to be able to throw the ball against a week Pats secondary, and that’s something the Ravens have not been able to do most of the year. To further prove my point, Ray Rice led the team in receptions.

The game played between these two earlier in the season was Baltimore’s to win, but—and tell me where you’ve heard this sad love song before—dropped passes sunk them in the end.

Multi-dimensional teams win in the playoffs, and Baltimore isn’t multi-dimensional on offense. New England is 8-0 in home playoff games under Bill Belichick. Pick: New England

Green Bay at Arizona (PK)
This was another crazy line movement much like Bengals/Jets. Arizona opened at minus three, and today I was able to find this game at a pick.

The Cardinals rolled over last week when they realized that their game meant nothing with the Vikings winning earlier.

Kurt Warner has the decided edge-playoff wise over Aaron Rodgers but has been spotty at best this season, while Rodgers has gotten better and smarter as the season went on.

The Cardinals are just a flat-out beat up team right now on both sides of the ball with several key players including WR Anquan Boldin questionable for the game.

The Packers are on a great rhythm on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has played better in the second half of the season, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t taken as many sacks as he did earlier.

Additionally, he’s finally learned to throw the ball away and not take those bad sacks either. However, the Packers might have the worst special teams of any team in the playoffs.

The Packers are a heavily penalized team on defense much like the Ravens, and the officiating could play a huge part here. Their defense likes to get physical, especially with opposing receivers.

See Charles Woodson for Exhibit A. The matchup between him and Larry Fitzgerald could be a deciding factor in the game. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (former Texas great) against Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson could also be one to watch.

Arizona hasn’t been what you’d call a dominant home team (only 4-4 this year), which plays into the hands of the Packers.

By the way, Green Bay is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games and is the better team overall.

By the way, Alan is a very big drug smuggler, but you can read all about that in tomorrow's paper. Sincerely yours, I.M. Fletcher. P.S. Have a nice day. Pick: Green Bay