San Diego Chargers Boltbits: Pick Your Poison in the AFC Wildcard Race

With one game remaining in the regular season, San Diego already has its first round opponent set: no one. The team earned itself a first round bye upon defeating Tennessee soundly in an early week 16 matchup. Who is playing in that first round is still a question mark.

The New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals have their divisions locked up, though they are still jostling for who will take the third seed and who the fourth. Both hold the same records, but New England holds a tie-breaker advantage that would give it the third seed if both teams win (or if both lose).

The wildcard picture is far more muddled. Technically the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets hold the wildcard berths at the moment. They are two among five teams with 8-7 records however, holding the advantage by slim tie-breaking advantages. Any one of those five teams could feasibly be entering the playoffs, but which two would benefit San Diego most?

Two factors play into this. The first being the capacity for a wildcard to beat (or at the very least, beat up) the home team in the first round. Should New England and Cincinnati glide through to the second round, it makes no difference.

The other factor to consider is who the Chargers themselves match up against best. With certain matchups it may be to San Diego’s benefit to have the home team win in the first round. Here’s a look at the various teams in play and how the playoff situation would affect San Diego:

Denver Broncos

After going a mighty 6-0 during which they embarrassed the San Diego Chargers at home, the Broncos are now among the weakest in the pack. They hold few tie-breakers, and share the worst second half record (2-5) with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

What they can do in the playoffs: Not much. Of the five wildcards, they would rate least likely to defeat both New England or Cincinnati, and least likely to push one of those two teams to be worn out for Round Two. 

Ironically, there's one major feather in Denver’s cap: wins over both New England and Cincinnati. This may play to the Broncos disadvantage (especially against the Patriots) as those two teams will be out to avenge those regular season losses; they'll be going for blood.

They also factor low into San Diego’s relevancy because of the likelihood that, even in getting into the playoffs, they would probably hold the sixth seed; thus facing Indianapolis should they make it to the divisional round.

If they face San Diego, the matchup works well for San Diego. They embarrassed Denver to reclaim the AFC West the last time these two teams squared off. The Broncos have shown few signs of life while San Diego has been on a tear.

Denver’s success has stemmed from a stingier-than-expected defense this year. They rate fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed. In the last ten games however, they have allowed 20 or more points eight times (seven of those being losses), making their overall defensive ranking a deceiving stat.

On offense the Broncos run a balanced attack with the 15th rated rushing offense and 18th rated passing game. They are actually both the lowest scoring 8-7 team (302 points, nine behind the Jets) and have the worst point differential at +22 (16 behind Pittsburgh). 

Ultimately they are both the least likely to see the Chargers, and the easiest matchup.

Houston Texans

The Texans have ridden a three game winning streak to go back into contention. They still need a lot of luck in order to make the playoffs, but hold a few tiebreakers.

What they can do in the playoffs: While more equipped to handle a team in the first round than Denver, they are still a big question mark. I believe they can do some damage against New England, thanks to their high powered passing game and the Patriots' shakier-than-normal defense. Cincinnati, despite its present backslide, would handle the Texans well on paper. 

The Bengals sport a tough defense with good corners. The vulnerability of missing Maualuga is tempered by a shaky Houston running game where Slaton is on IR, Ryan Moats has gone up and down the depth chart and Arian Foster has one solid game to his credit.

Should they face the Colts in the second round, that would be an interesting pairing. They have a terrible interdivisional record, including losing both matchups with Indianapolis; yet the two losses against the Colts were by a combined 11 points. The Colts should be able to handle them in the playoffs but will have to work to do so...which could be helpful.

If they face San Diego: This is an interesting matchup as both teams are so similar, on many levels. They both pair top tier passing offenses (fifth for San Diego, second for Houston) with disappointing running offenses (29th for San Diego and 31st for Houston). 

They also rate similarly on defense, with Houston holding the 14th ranked defense in the NFL while San Diego holds the 15th. The two teams are separated by a mere .7 yards per game. The difference between the two, however, stems from strengths. Houston’s defense is led by stopping the run, ranked 13th (as compared to 17th against the pass). San Diego is stronger against the pass (ninth) than the running game (23rd).

To further the idea of rank-related strengths, also remember that San Diego has enjoyed far more leads deep into games. This reduces the number of passes thrown by Rivers while increasing the times an opposing team need throw the football. A 10-5 San Diego would likely move up a rank or two in the passing game on offense and defense.

With the Chargers' offensive strength playing to Houston’s defensive weakness, along with the Texans' strength going against that of the Chargers defense, the matchup among pass-centric teams looks to lean heavily to San Diego.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The most unusual team present. When Pittsburgh wins they have generally looked like the former Super Bowl champs they are. When losing, the Steelers have looked downright awful, falling to three top-ten drafting teams. The team’s conference record means they rate just about last in tie-breaker situations, and need three of the four other 8-7’s to lose while winning to earn a playoff berth.

What they can do in the playoffs: This is contingent upon a couple of factors. The first would be injured safety Troy Polamalu, who is questionable for the final game against Miami. His availability in the wildcard round is likely also debatable should he miss week 17. Even playing, it is unknown whether he will be at full effectiveness. Should he be close to his usual pro-bowl self, this team will be very dangerous.

The second is just which Steelers team shows up. Even without Polamalu, this is a team that should have easily handled Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City. With a fairly kind schedule, considering they were the NFL champions, this team should have fielded 10-11 wins easily. 

Despite all that, they have also defeated the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings. They are a big physical team with playoff experience and should they be able to eke out a playoff berth, they will be very dangerous.

If they face San Diego: Two things stick out. One is that Pittsburgh’s confidence would be at an all time high as it will likely mean they have dispatched the Patriots (or Bengals) and the Colts (the odds of a fifth seed are incredibly low). With Polamalu playing, the Steelers are just as dangerous as any divisional team, and their physicality doesn’t always stack up well against San Diego.

That said, it was a different San Diego team in week four. They were still reeling from injuries incurred in week one, had not figured out even a modest running game, were playing on the road, and lacked their identity. This Chargers team will not be intimidated in the same manner.

To San Diego’s favor, Pittsburgh has shifted from the running game to a more pass-centric offense. They still boast a stout defense (sixth in the league), but like Houston, are a team that fares much better against the run (third) than pass (16th).   

New York Jets

The current sixth seed. They were considered out of contention when they dropped to 4-6 following a 3-0 start. The team still holds a chip on its shoulder, though it has been tempered by their midseason difficulties. The Jets earned their way back into the fold by going 3-1 in the last four games.

What they can do in the playoffs: The win against New England seems a long time ago.  Tom Brady is not shaking any rust away and Mark Sanchez looks much more like a rookie. Still, they have the swagger, running game, and a shut-down defense. They probably lack the firepower to push them over the top, but should push and beat up on whatever team they face; especially a Cincinnati team short a key run-game stopper in Maualuga.

If they face San Diego: Just as the Houston matchup was interesting for similar strengths, this one is interesting for the strength against weakness aspect of these grossly opposite teams.

The Jets hold the best pass defense in football (though they are top 10 against the run as well); impressive given that they have played the Patriots twice, the Saints, Texans, and Colts, once. With one of the best cover corners in football, the Chargers will need to utilize Gates and Sproles in the passing game to overcome the tough Jets lineup.

The Jets offense, centered around Thomas Jones, is a bit less frightening. After some early success, they have become one-dimensional, leading the league in rushing while paired with the 30th ranked passing game. Mark Sanchez is second in the league with 20 interceptions despite missing some time to injury. San Diego will need to commit Weddle or Ellison to the run at all times. 

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are the current fifth seed, riding the most consistent season of any 8-7 team. After a 3-0 start slipped to 3-3, the team has alternated a win with a loss in every game barring one: a back-to-back pair of wins against against Detroit and Chicago. A win against Pittsburgh in week 16 would have secured their playoff fate; instead they must work for a victory in the final week. Should they win against the Raiders, they hold almost every tie-breaking scenario and are the most probable of the five to be in the playoffs.

What they can do in the playoffs: Quite a lot. The Ravens' defense looked old and worn out during a 3-6 midseason stretch, but has regained its hard-hitting form, holding opponents to 30 points in the last three games. They have lost twice to the Bengals but both in close fashion to a Cincinnati team that was performing much better than they are of late.

New England can be made one-dimensional by the balanced Ravens defense (third overall behind the sixth best passing and rushing defenses), and Joe Flacco is better suited than Mark Sanchez to exploit a sometimes vulnerable Patriots defense. Across all aspects, the Ravens ultimately seem to be the most likely team to make it to the second round.

If they face San Diego: Like Pittsburgh (and to a lesser extent, due to the split Denver), the Ravens can claim a regular season win over San Diego. Unlike the Steelers however, the Ravens can also tack on that they have won IN San Diego. The Chargers are playing much better football, but it is still a bit of a danger.

The Chargers will need to work to eliminate the Ravens middling (15th ranked) passing offense, and make Baltimore one-dimensional on offense. They also will have to utilize their versatile stable of running backs to get past a Baltimore front line that effectively shut down a Sproles-led running game in week three. 

Feeding the ball to all three leading rushers to keep bodies fresh, while spreading out the passing game to keep the Ravens from stacking the middle, will be vital. The Ravens maintain that AFC North identity of big tough teams that boast good, hard-hitting defenses. San Diego would rather not have to face that.

So what does it all mean? Who does San Diego want to see playing in the wildcard game? Denver would be an obvious choice as the most beatable, but are unlikely to make much noise against New England or Cincinnati. 

The Ravens and Steelers both boast the best chances to advance past the Patriots and Bengals, but does San Diego want to go toe-to-toe with big physical AFC North teams that have beaten San Diego in the regular season? Probably not.

Ultimately, I think Houston and New York are the ideal teams to advance. Both have some capacity to win in the first round, and cause damage to their opponents should they lose. Ironically, if these two teams win, week 18 will be identical to week 17. Houston is facing New England and Cincinnati plays New York. More likely will be the wildcard round reflecting the current seeding, with Denver possibly taking New York’s place thanks to a Kansas City Chiefs matchup.

Oddly, because of all this, it may just behoove San Diego fans to spend week 17 rooting for division rivals, as Denver and Oakland winning would go a long way towards keeping the AFC North out of both wildcard berths.

Final Note: For Chargers fans, I know the "Boltbits" nomenclature is a little corny, but wanted something just to put a bit of a stamp on these. Please let me know if you have any recommendations or just what you think of this one. Thanks for the time and reads.