Texans' Playoff Hopes Hanging By a Thread, But Still Hanging

For a few weeks, I was writing a weekly "Houston Texans Playoff Outlook" column before the team decided to party like it was 2005 and blow four straight divisional games,  essentially emasculating all post-season hopes in the process.

With three weeks to go, however, the team is still technically alive in the hunt for a playoff berth—even if it is one of those "Ray Liotta at the end of Hannibal" types of alive.

So let's dive back into our playoff scenarios and see what kind of Christmas miracles we need to be praying for.

When we last left , I was pretty much calling for a 10-6 season for a legitimate shot at making the post-season and I had identified the Steelers and Broncos as the primary threats to our Wild Card hopes. 

Well, so much for that idea.  Although in fairness, I could not have possibly been expected to predict that Pittsburgh would lose to Oakland, Kansas City, and Cleveland in upcoming weeks—hell, I still don't really believe it happened.

Obviously a 10-6 record is now impossible for the Texans, so for the sake of argument, let's assume that the Texans win out and go 9-7 because the probability of us making the playoffs at 8-8 are about the same as Pittsburgh losing to Oakland, Kansas City, and Cleveland in the span of three weeks.

Or maybe worse than that.  Let's move on.

Starting in the AFC East, we're currently sitting behind Miami and New York for the Wild Card (I'm still giving New England the title, but that is no longer as clear cut as it was a few weeks ago). 

The Dolphins have a tough schedule remaining with games against Tennessee, Houston, and Pittsburgh.  Based on our earlier premise that the Texans are winning out, that means the Dolphins are losing that game and would have to beat both the Titans and Steelers to finish 9-7.  The Texans would own the tie breaker by virtue of the head to head victory.

In other words, if the Texans win out, they will finish ranked higher than the Dolphins.

The Jets also have a difficult schedule with games against Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. 

The Jets hold the tie breaker over the Texans, so the Texans have to hope that the Colts and Bengals both play to win in those games.  New York would have to go 1-2 in order for Houston to proceed.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Mark Sanchez' knee, and how strongly Atlanta played in Matt Ryan's absence, a 1-2 record is a legitimate possibility.

Moving to the North, we can pretty much give the division to the Bengals.

That leaves Pittsburgh and Baltimore as teams Texans fans need to keep an eye on.

The reeling Steelers have a difficult game against the Packers this weekend before Baltimore comes to town in two weeks.  They then finish up at Miami. 

That's a very difficult schedule and if they lose even one of those games, they would end up behind the alleged 9-7 Texans.

Baltimore, on the other hand has a much easier schedule.  Aside from the game at Pittsburgh, they have Chicago at home and a game at Oakland.  Furthermore, they are one game up on Houston in the standings and hold the tie breaker. 

The Ravens would have to finish 1-2 in order to finish behind the Texans—not out of the question, but so far this is our least likely scenario.

Now things get tough. 

Because of the Texans' pathetic play within the division, they lose the tie breaker against both Jacksonville and Tennessee. 

Jacksonville would have to go 1-2 in its remaining games, which is not impossible, considering they have to face Indianapolis and New England in the next two weeks.

Tennessee would only have to lose once, however, to eliminate their chances.  With upcoming games against Miami and San Diego, that too is a legitimate possibility.

Lastly, if we look at the AFC West, the only threat to the Texans' Wild Card hopes are the 8-5 Broncos. 

The Broncos hold a 6-4 conference record and the only way they could end the season tied with a 9-7 Houston team is if they go 1-2 down the stretch. 

Denver would own the tie breaker unless if by some miracle, that victory was against Philadelphia and they lost to Kansas City and Oakland—something that we now know is possible.  The teams would then have to go to the third tie breaker:  record in common games, with a minimum of four.

The Broncos and Texans will have played four common opponents in Cincinnati, Oakland, New England, and Indianapolis. 

In order to find ourselves in this remote possibility, Denver would have to lose next week to Oakland which would give them a 3-2 record in these games.  Houston will have to have won against New England in Week 17 and would also then have a 3-2 record in these games.

On to the fourth tie breaker: strength of victory.

This incredibly cool sounding tie breaker means that we need to calculate the winning percentage of opponents each team has beaten.  Whoever has beaten the opponents with the highest winning percentage wins. 

If we take the current winning percentage of what would be the nine victories for each team, Denver would win by a score of .513 to .436.

Sadly, the Texans stand little chance here as they have only won a single game so far against an opponent who is currently over .500.  While they will have had to win against New England and Miami in order to find themselves in this situation, that gain would be greatly offset by adding the Rams and their paltry record to the list.

Denver, on the other hand, already has big victories against Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, San Diego, and the New York Giants.  They will also have a victory against Philadelphia in this scenario. 

So ultimately, this long-winded walk down tie breaker lane can be simplified down to this:  the only way the Texans can finish ahead of the Broncos in the Wild Card standings is if the Broncos lose out. 

Now, as exciting as this discussion was, it is greatly overshadowed by our enormous premise that the Texans have to win out.

The team can no longer afford even a single slip up and even then will need some serious help. 

When you break down each possibility, however, the only one that is truly a stretch is the one that has the Texans finishing ahead of the Broncos.

The greatest hurdle now is the Ravens. 

They play the Bears this weekend and a Chicago victory would be a big boon to our post-season dreams.

So get your Raven hating clothes out of the closet (I assume everyone has some) and let's pull towards the playoffs!