Playoffs Or Not: Why We Want the Buffalo Bills To Run the Table

For a 4-7 football team, I'd say the attitude in Western New York surrounding the Buffalo Bills resembles a team in heavy contention for a playoff spot.

In reality, saying the Bills are a long-shot for the playoffs would propel you to optimist levels even higher than I myself, have ever reached. 

However, when you beat your most hated rival in front of your home crowd, and get big plays from your highest profile player, sure, fans will start to believe their team can win any game.

You can't blame them for getting excited about finally witnessing some good football and some animation on the sideline from their head coach.

Whether the Bills run the table or stumble down the stretch, it pleases me that Buffalo will no longer be the laughing-stock city in the NFL.

Perry Fewell has rejuvenated everyone's morale, boosted player confidence and given us a glimpse of what a passionate, outspoken and gutsy coach is capable of doing with this team.

A few weeks ago, after another humiliating fourth-quarter catastrophe against the Tennessee Titans and the following week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a frustrating outcry from some Bills "fans" began to resonate in Buffalo. Many believed finishing with as many losses as possible would be the best thing for the organization, dumping the Bills into the draft's top five.

I understand this wasn't everyone's desire, but at 3-7, it seemed a plausible theory that many disgruntled fans conjure up once their team is seemingly a lost cause—lose more games in exchange for the higher draft pick.

People have thought that way for years.

I'm not one of those people. Here's why.

1. High draft picks are rarely worth the huge dollars they demand  

Of the top ten picks drafted between 2001—2007, only 40% (28 of 70) have made the Pro-Bowl. It seems like a respectable number initially, but with the ever-increasing top dollar that higher picks demand, I'd rather not take a chance with the Bills front office (new or old) finding the stud. They've done a better job finding the dud.   

Some think a top-ten pick doesn't necessarily need to be a Pro-Bowler to be considered a success. Or does he? I surely don't want to invest some crazy 6-year, 70 million dollar deal in a future contributor. Would you? The Bills have definitely made that mistake many times in the past.

PS ( In picks 11-20 in those same years, 34%, 24 of 70 picks made the Pro-Bowl, and obviously were kept at a much lower cost. )

2. I'm not high on this year's draft class, especially for what the Bills are looking for

Based on reason one, you'd think I'm totally against top-ten draftees. I'm not. There's been a colossal number of Pro-Bowlers, All-Pros, and even Hall of Famers drafted in the top-ten throughout the years. Sometimes the money can pay off. (Even though each year the dollars will get bigger and bigger, thus making the draft pick that more vital.)

With all that being said, I just don't envision this draft class nearing the famous 2004 group. (14 of first 24 picks have made the Pro-Bowl) For the positions the Bills will almost certainly target in the 2010 Draft, I'm not blown away by any of the top prospects.

If you're one who's begging and pleading for a quarterback, do you really think a future franchise guy is there? I know it's been frustrating since Jim Kelly's retirement in Buffalo, but try not to let that turn to false hope that one the top guys will truly become a franchise foundation, especially with an offensive line, and a team gearing up for what looks to be a complete overhaul this offseason.

Real quick: Jimmy Clausen has the arm, the accuracy, and the delivery. Sure, his defense was terrible, but he never delivered that big game when ND needed it most, even with two sure-fire NFL wide-receivers on his team, Golden Tate and Michael Floyd.

Sam Bradford—shoulder injury. Oh yea, I need to see him play against an actual defense (not one from the Big 12) and perform on a high level. He's yet to do it in college. All his skill players were light years ahead of their opponents athletically as well. That won't necessarily happen in the NFL.

Tim Tebow—love his leadership. Wills his teams to victory. But similiar to Bradford, the skill around him is far greater than anyone else, and he can lean on best defense in the NCAA. Interesting to see how his arm looks during the Combine in February. Still, I can't picture him in anyone's top-ten.

Colt McCoy—Closest to being a top-ten pick in my mind. He's a proven winner, but again, he plays in the Big 12, which tells me nothing about how can play facing a ferocious defense.

Whether or not you agree with my quick assessments of the top QB's in the collegiate ranks, I find it hard to believe you'd think these guys are top-ten worthy. We're talking guys to build a franchise around? I don't think so.

I left out Washington's Jake Locker for a reason. It looks like, if he comes out, he'll be drafted ahead of where the Bills will sit come April.

You could start this year's Pro-Bowl quarterbacks, whoever they turn out to be, on the Buffalo Bills, and I highly doubt we'd see dramatic improvement.

Sure, some defensive tackles, linebackers, and offensive linemen may fit the bill as top tier draft picks, but 2010 is definitely one of the "moving-down-is-a-better-idea" draft years. And right now, the Bills can move down very simply by winning.

3. Winning attracts the top free agents/coaches 

I may be going out a limb here, but I'm fairly certain Ralph Wilson Jr. stated he's ready to spend money this offseason. A key to the Bills becoming a contender sooner rather than later hinges on acquisition of the top free agents and coaches. Money in Buffalo always has it's ceiling. Ralph isn't as dumb as the Daniel Synders of the world, but much goes into the enticing of free agents and the guys that'll coach them.

The rumor surrounding the big name guys like Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, and Tony Dungy is that they don't want to coach a team with tons of issues.

Their inflated heads can barely fit into their cars right now, and they want to go down as legends of the sidelines. If the bring multiple teams to the playoffs and Super Bowls they'll be just that, legends.

They aren't dumb, though. They know their presence can't will a team like the Bills, Browns, Lions, or Buccaneers to consistent victories. They need to see promise before even considering a new job.

As far as players are considered, we aren't winning over any guys with the climate, let's just admit that out of the gate. Though players have shown in the past they'll come here.

The night life, and big city atmosphere doesn't stack up to some of the bigger markets, either, although my fellow Chippewa street go-ers will most likely beg to differ.

Even if the Bills front office can squeeze by all that with a player and his greedy agent, pitching a team with a good outlook for the future is essential. Guys don't want to play for a perennial cellar dweller that has no promise for the future. I most certainly wouldn't.

The Bills need to show the rest of the league that there are players on this team, and the ground-work is being laid for a squad that can compete next year.

Buffalo has been "re-building" for a decade now. Finishing the season 4-12, or 5-11, while factoring in the cold weather, and the small market, won't lure anyone with substantial ability to Buffalo.

(Think there's a better chance for T.O. to stick around if the team finishes strong? Certainly.)

The team appearing to be on the rebound can only help this offseason.

This situation exquisitely fits with my usual Bills optimism. Those who waved their hands in disgust after the Bills seventh loss while uttering something like:

"Lose all the rest, so we'll have a top draft pick" or,

"Losing out will do us good for next year", may want to re-think their snap judgment.

For a preview of tomorrow's game against the New York Jets refer to Dan Van Wie's column.