NFL Week 12 Poolies' Cheat Sheet

aaron jamesContributor INovember 27, 2009

DENVER - NOVEMBER 23:  The Denver Broncos cheerleaders perform as the Oakland Raiders face the Denver Broncos during week 12 NFL action at Invesco Field at Mile High on November 23, 2008 in Denver, Colorado. The Raiders defeated the Broncos 31-10.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Atlanta. HC Raheem Morris is taking over the defensive play calling to try and improve Tampa Bay's defense. Kicker Jason Elam has cost Atlanta important points in some close games.

Why Falcons cover: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Matt Ryan is 11-1 SU at home in his pro career. QB Josh Freeman (3.8 yards per attempt, 3 interceptions) struggled against the Saints' pass rush last week and could be forced into more trouble against John Abraham and company.

Total (46): Over is 12-4 in Buccaneers' last 16 road games and 5-0 in Falcons' last five games overall.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They're 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bills offensive line is banged up. Ricky Williams (138 total yards, 3 TDs) was phenomenal in place of Ronnie Brown last week.

Why Bills cover: They lead the AFC in interceptions. Miami lost NT Jason Ferguson for the season with a quad injury last week. Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Buffalo. Terrell Owens has come to life with 282 receiving yards and a TD in the last two weeks.

Total (40): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-14)

Why Browns cover: Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Brady Quinn (304 yards, 4 TDs) is coming off his best game as a pro. Cincinnati has a tendency to play to the level of its opponent.

Why Bengals cover: They've won eight of the last 10 meetings. They're 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and could get leading rusher Cedric Benson back from injury. Carson Palmer is 7-2 SU in his career vs. Cleveland.

Total (39.5): Under is 5-2-1 in Browns' last eight road games and 11-4-1 in Bengals' last 16 home games.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5)

Why Colts cover: They're 14-1 SU all-time against Houston. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Indy has picked off Matt Schaub four times in their last two meetings. Texans have third worst running attack in the NFL. Colts boast AFC's sixth-best rush defense.

Why Texans cover: They're 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Indy has 13 starters listed on this week's injury report including Peyton Manning (back), Dwight Freeney (abdomen) and Reggie Wayne (foot).

Total (48.5): Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four in Houston.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (-3)

Why Panthers cover: Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. After a great start, rookie QB Mark Sanchez has looked lost throwing 14 interceptions in his last six games.

Why Jets cover: Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Julius Peppers is dealing with a hand injury that has limited his tackling ability. With Landon Johnson joining Thomas Davis who is out for the year, the Panthers have lost their second linebacker in as many weeks.

Total (41.5): Over is 3-0-1 in Jets' last four games and 7-2 in Panthers' last nine road games.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why Redskins cover: Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Philadelphia's is dealing with multiple injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. Jason Campbell is 2-0 for his career at Philadelphia.

Why Eagles cover: They're 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games. They have won 11 of the past 16 meetings. With both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts out, career special teamer Rock Cartwright will handle the bulk of the rushing duties for Washington. NFC”s fourth best defense should shut down a Redskins offense that is one of the lowest scoring in the league.

Total (40.5): Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Philadelphia.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3)

Why Seahawks cover: They're 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Rams RB Steven Jackson has been battling back spasms all week. Seahawks might get leading rusher Julius Jones back from injury. Kyle Boller with start at QB for the Rams in place of injured Marc Bulger.

Why Rams cover: Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Total (42): Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-13.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Chris Chambers (25 yards per catch, 2 TDs in three games) has sparked the Chiefs' passing attack and is motivated to prove San Diego was wrong for cutting him earlier this season.

Why Chargers cover: They’ve won four consecutive meetings SU. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. LaDainian Tomlinson has caught fire and gets to test Chiefs weak rush defense.

Total (44.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Why Jaguars cover: They've won both prior meetings. 49ers are 1-3 SU since Alex Smith has become the starting quarterback.

Why 49ers cover: They're 6-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Both of Jacksonville's top offensive threats (Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Simms-Walker) are dealing with knee injuries.

Total (41.5): Under is 6-2 in Jaguars' last eight road games.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-1)

Why Cardinals cover: They've won five of eight all-time meetings. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Beanie Wells has taken on a bigger role in the offense and has averaged over 5.3 yards per carry in his last four games.

Why Titans cover: Titans are 4-0 ATS and SU since Vince Young became the starting QB. Arizona kicker Neil Rackers is dealing with a groin injury. Kurt Warner is dealing with a head injury he suffered last week.

Total (47): Over is 40-19 in Cardinals' last 59 road games.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)

Why Bears cover: Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Facing one of the NFL's worst pass defenses could spark the struggling Jay Cutler. He threw for 246 yards and two TDs in his last game against Minnesota and was not intercepted.

Why Vikings cover: They've won three of the past four meetings. Expect to get stud cornerback Antoine Winfield back from injury. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Minnesota.

Total (47): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings and 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Minnesota.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2)

Why Steelers cover: They've won three of the last four meetings. Terrell Suggs is likely out with a sprained MCL and Ray Lewis is hampered by an ankle injury. Joe Flacco has been sacked 15 times in his last seven games. Pittsburgh has the NFL's top defense and has registered 29 sacks this season.

Why Ravens cover: Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Ben Roethlisberger will be playing even though he had his bell rung last week.  Dennis Dixon (one career pass) is the only other QB for Pittsburgh.

Total (42): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Why Patriots cover: They won the last three meetings. New Orleans had to sign two defensive backs off the street to help fill injury depleted secondary. Leigh Torrence, Jabari Greer, Randall Gay and Tracy Porter are all injured.

Why Saints cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Drew Brees often plays in the shadows of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the league's best quarterbacks. This is a perfect platform for him to prove he belongs.

Total (56.5): Over is 14-3-1 in Saints' last 18 home games and 5-2-1 in Patriots' last eight Monday games.