Bills-Titans: Week 10 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (3-5) travel to the Tennessee Titans (2-6) in a game that involves two teams with a losing record and defenses that rank dead last in a number of categories.

The Bills enter the week 10 contest coming off of their bye week. As a result, the team is rested and is a little bit healthier than they have been in quite some time. Look at the list of Bills who are expected to return: 

QB Trent Edwards

returning from his concussion and is expected to start

Tackle Jonathan Scott

returning from his ankle sprain and is expected to start

Tight End Shawn Nelson

returning from migraine headaches and is expected to play

Safety Bryan Scott

returning from his ankle sprain and is expected to play. He could either return to safety or possibly at linebacker, where he has been taking reps in practice.

Satety Donte Whitner, linebacker Keith Ellison, safety Jairus Byrd, cornerback Terrence McGee, defensive tackle Kyle Williams, and defensive end Aaron Schobel, were all suffering from injuries and there is no word as of now how many players from this group are playing for sure on Sunday.

You figure that Jamon Meredith's knee sprain will be keeping him out, so Jonathan Scott's return is timely indeed.

Bills fans have been treated to an amazing stretch by rookie safety Jairus Byrd, who has now had at least one interception in the last four consecutive games. Byrd has at least two picks in three straight games.

He has seven total interceptions in the last four games and under normal circumstances would think that facing an inexperienced quarterback in Vince Young would pad his total.

However, Young is not putting the ball up in the air very often, as was the case last Sunday, when he went 12-of-19 for 172 yards against the San Francisco 49ers.

Byrd went to visit a specialist in Philadelphia during the bye week regarding his July hernia surgery, so we will know more about his availability as the week unfolds.

These teams have some striking similarities

For starters, both teams have won two of their last three games, so the victor will see that trend rise to three wins out of the last four. The two wins were created when each team made a quarterback change.

The Titans replaced Kerry Collins with Vince Young (performance issues) while the Bills replaced Trent Edwards with Ryan Fitzpatrick (due to injury).

Since both teams have been having trouble this year at the quarterback position, the loser of this game will take another step towards a favorable draft slot in the upcoming 2010 draft.

It would not be a surprise if both teams are looking for quarterback help with their first selection in the draft.

You would like to see your quarterback have a passer rating of at least 100. Look at the current rating of the four quarterbacks involved in this game: Young (83), Edwards (73), Collins (62) and Fitzpatrick (57). As we said, both teams need QB help.

Tennessee's defense is last in number of points allowed per game (29.8) and in average passing yards allowed per game (278).

Titans defense ranks next to last in yards allowed per game (390); only Cleveland's defense gives up more (409).

The Bills defense on the other hand is last in the NFL in average rushing yardage allowed per game (173). The Bills defense leads the NFL in tackles at 399, but that also means that the defense has been on the field for more plays than any other unit in the league.

I believe that the Bills also lead the league in defensive starters injured and in games missed due to injury, but I have not been able to confirm that as fact.

If the Bills defense wants to be off the field more, they need to start forcing more three-and-out drives. That would be a good way to start the second half of the season.

What are the keys to this week's game? 

WHEN TENNESSEE HAS THE BALL

In the past 40 years of the NFL, care to take a guess as to who has the highest average per carry after nine weeks of the season? Time is up.

The answer is: Titans starting running back Chris Johnson. Johnson is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and that is the best average for nine weeks since 1970; pretty impressive.

Johnson said coming in to the year that his goal was to be a two thousand yard rusher. Ex-Bills O.J. Simpson was the first rusher to hit that level, but he won't be the last.

What does Johnson need to do to accomplish his goal? So far, Johnson has gained 959 yards after eight games, so he is almost half way there. 

Johnson will need to pick up the pace slightly in the second half of the season and you know he has to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing a Bills rushing defense that gives up large chunks of yards on the ground.

Last week, Johnson racked up 135 yards against the 49'ers and registered two TD's. The week before that, Johnson rushed for 228 yards against Jacksonville and again had two rushing TD's.

The Bills need to be concerned about every running back they face. In the last game against Houston, back up Ryan Moats entered the game due to Steve Slaton fumbling issues.

Moats, who had accomplished very little all year, went on to rush for three TD's against the Bills, along with setting a career high in rushing yardage gained.

Likewise, the backup to Johnson is LenDale White, he of the 15 rushing TD's last year. 2009 is a different story as White only has one rushing TD this year. Last Sunday, White gained three yards in four carries. Ugh. However, if something happens to Johnson during the game, you can expect to see White explode.

The Bills will need to force Tennessee to throw the ball and that means they will have to find a way to put the Titans in passing situations by putting eight guys up in the box and trying to stuff Johnson on first- and second-down runs. If that happens, you would like the Bills' chances at picking off some more passes.

The Bills pass defense ranks tied for second in the NFL with Philadelphia; both teams have 15 interceptions so far. New Orleans leads the league with 16 picks.

One of the keys to Tennessee's two game winning streak, is that Vince Young has taken over at quarterback and done a better job of taking care of the football.

Tennessee has not turned over the ball once during these two wins, while their defense has created six turnovers in the two wins.

That was not the case when Collins was the QB. He had eight interceptions and only five TD's and as a starter he went 0-6, leading to the decision to bench him.

We need to talk about one other factor and with Vince Young that is his mobility. He has not been running the ball much, but did have a draw he ran in for a TD against the 49ers.

Young's scrambling ability was noteworthy in college, but has been less of a factor in the pro game. The Bills will still need to make sure they have someone matched up on Young to prevent him from taking off with the ball.

If Keith Ellison, the Bills' leading tackler, is not able to play, the Bills will have to go with either Bryan Scott switching over to linebacker, or go with rookie Nic Harris. Not ideal, but that is how banged up the Bills defense has been.

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL

This will be an interesting game for the Bills on many levels. For Trent Edwards, it will be his first start since suffering his second concussion against the New York Jets back in week six.

He watched Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball to the wide receivers more often than Edwards did, but with mixed results.

Will Edwards follow Fitzpatrick's lead and throw the ball down the field, or will he be gun shy his first time out for fear of getting a third concussion?

You would like to think that if he is medically cleared, he will be anxious to get out there and prove he can lead the team. Maybe he gained some insight while watching on the sidelines.

The Bills had ditched the no-huddle offense coming in to the Jets game and Edwards began that contest 5-for-5 and was moving the Bills offense down the field when the concussion occurred.

Was that a sign of things to come? That is why this game will be so interesting to see where Edwards is regarding his leadership, performance, and confidence in his ability to throw the ball down the field.

It helps that he is facing a defense that is porous as Tennessee's is. But before Bills fans get too cocky, remember that only Cleveland's defense gives up more yardage than the Titans, and when Trent faced the Browns, he was only able to lead the team to three points for the entire game, at home no less. This one is on the road.

If Terrell Owens was going to have a game that allows him to break the century mark for the first time as a Bill, you would like his chances in this one.

The 278 yards a game in the air that the Titans give up is a bunch, so that would mean Edwards should have a weaker secondary to pick apart.

The Titans have registered 19 sacks so far, compared to 17 sacks for the Bills. The Titans will be facing the Bills' young offensive line, so that will be interesting to see how they perform.

Jevon Kearse was inactive last Sunday and Albert Haynesworth now plays for Washington, so at least the offensive line catches a break in not facing those two sack masters.

Also of interest this week, will be what new wrinkles have the Bills offense devised due to having their bye week and two full weeks to prepare for this game. The Bills in general, and Dick Jauron in particular, have been criticized for running an offensive scheme that has been too easy to prepare for.

The offense converts on third down only 26 percent of the time, which is pretty anemic. Analyzing third down calls and trying to determine how to break those trends, is something I am sure was addressed at One Bills Drive during the bye week.

Are the Bills able to install some new looks or new plays that Tennessee has not seen in game film? Will Freddy Jackson be allowed to be the third-down back again and see more touches as he did when Marshawn Lynch was out due to his three-game suspension?

The Bills' offense has led the league in three-and-out drives. That has to change, so if the Bills are able to move the chains with longer drives, they will keep their defense fresher and stand a better chance to come away with a win.

Bills Bits

Shawn Nelson's migraine headaches turn out to be something he has suffered from for a long time. The headaches are hereditary in nature.

It is not known how public that information is or was, but it may help to understand why he was still available in the fourth round of the draft. A guy that suffers from migraine headaches,and plays football for a living, can't be a good thing for the headaches.  

The Bills need Nelson to step up; he has only accounted for six catches all year long. When he scored on opening night against the Patriots, we all envisioned big things for the rookie.

Speaking of rookies that need to step up, I wonder how much time the Bills spent with Aaron Maybin during this two week break?

Since he held out of training camp until his big contract was finalized, Maybin has been largely ineffective so far. It would be nice to see him making some plays and demonstrating why he was worthy of the Bills' first draft selection.

James Hardy was due to be activated off of the P.U.P. list this week. No word yet if that is official, or what the corresponding move will be as to who the Bills cut to make room for him. Is this the end of the road for Roscoe Parrish? Just wondering....

Finally, Tony Dungy came out with a blurb that mentioned the Bills as a possible future destination for Michael Vick. The Bills have long prided themselves on finding players from small colleges and drafting players with strong personal character.

Off the field issues recently by players like Marshawn Lynch and Donte Whitner, demonstrates that the people in charge of evaluating players have missed the mark on character assessment.

Adding a questionable character like Vick is a step in the wrong direction.

Sure, Vick is saying the right things, but how sincere is he? If that was what he was required to do to save his career and get out of debt, why wouldn't he show a different attitude? But is that really him?

What do you think?