The Ledger: NFL Week Eight Picks Review

The Ledger returns following week eight, a week that was, for me anyway, rather unsuccessful compared to the rest of the 2009 season.

I went 5-8 on the week, recording my worst week of picks against the spread all season long. The poor showing put a dent into my solid overall record, which now stands at 68-48. I’m hoping to bounce back in week nine.

First though, a look back at the games I picked correctly, and the games I missed horribly on. 

Ravens 30, Broncos 7 (Denver, +3.5)

The Ravens picked up a quality win, outscoring Denver 24-7 in the second half of this game to win comfortably. It marked the first time all season that the Broncos were outplayed in the second half of a game.

Lardarius Webb’s kickoff return for a touchdown that opened the second half gave the Ravens a 13-0 lead, and they never looked back from there.

This win should give the Ravens some confidence as they need to play extremely well down the stretch in order to make the playoffs. For Denver, this game should give their coaching staff plenty to go over with the team in preparation for their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

Two more key aspects to the Ravens’ win: they went 11-for-18 on third down conversions, allowing them to hold the football for longer, and they limited the Broncos to 200 yards of total offense.

Neither of those factors were results that I had expected prior to the game. (0-1)

Bears 30, Browns 6 (Chicago, -13.5)

If I were a Bears fan, I wouldn’t be overly joyous about this win. The Browns had five turnovers, which aided the Bears’ cause and sunk their chances, and their quarterback play rivals Oakland’s as the worst in the league.

In order for the Bears to make it to the postseason, they need Jay Cutler to play better and for Matt Forte to show some signs of life.

Forte racked up two touchdowns and 90 yards on the ground, but he had 26 carries, and his longest run was just 12 yards. Against a poor defense like Cleveland’s those aren’t numbers to brag about.

Cutler wasn’t a big part of the game plan once the Bears took a big lead, but his stats for the day suggest he was mediocre when he was involved (225 yards passing, one interception). (1-1)

Texans 31, Bills 10 (Houston, -3.5)

Despite struggles on offense, the Bills led 10-9 entering the fourth quarter in this one. Houston seemed on the verge of proving, once again, that they are the most inconsistent team in the league.

However, the Texans scored 21 points in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to some timely Buffalo turnovers, as well as the emergence of backup running back Ryan Moats, who scored all three Texans’ touchdowns in the final quarter.

Moats stepped in for Steve Slaton, who seems to have fumbled one too many times for Houston head coach Gary Kubiak’s taste.

This was the sort of win the Texans needed, in my view, to solidify their status as a playoff contender at this point in the 2009 season.

Now 5-3, the Texans are in the mix for a wild card spot. Two of their next three games are against Indianapolis though, so how they fare in those games could determine their fate for 2009. (2-1)

Colts 18, 49ers 14 (San Francisco, +12.5)

As expected, the 49ers were in this game. They even had a realistic chance at winning. However, a TD pass from Indy RB Joseph Addai with roughly three minutes left in the game gave the Colts the winning points. Also, the 49ers had problems sustaining drives, converting only two of 10 third downs.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, losses like this one are becoming emblematic of their season; it’s the third close loss to a playoff-contending team (Minnesota, Houston, now Indianapolis) in the last five games.

The 49ers are close, but it seems that they are still developing into a quality team, rather than already being one. As Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree play more together, they, and their team as a whole, will improve.

Meanwhile, the Colts motor on. They’ve won 16 straight regular season games. I still wonder how they will fare in the coming weeks, when they play Houston twice, New England, Baltimore, Denver and the Jets.

Indy has survived thus far without a decent running attack. Can they continue to succeed without one? (3-1)

Dolphins 30, Jets 25 (NY Jets, -3)

I went against conventional wisdom (Miami presents the Jets with matchup difficulties) and went with my (rather sizeable) gut in picking the Jets. Advantage, conventional wisdom.

And yet, I don’t feel badly about being wrong with this pick, b