NY JETS (-3.5) 22 Miami 19
Miami quarterback Chad Henne had the best game of his young career 3 weeks ago in a 31-27 home win over the Jets (9.4 yards per pass play), but Henne has since returned to reality and averaged just 5.2 yppp in last week's crushing come from ahead loss to the Saints.
Miami's "Wildcat" formation should have success against a vulnerable Jets' run defense that will probably miss All-Pro DT Kris Jenkins (they gave up 6.2 ypr to the Raiders last week), but New York still has a good defense and Miami's offense is still a bit worse than average (5.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team).
The Jets' offense is slightly worse than average for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but the likely return of top WR Jerricho Cotchery will give rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez two good targets to throw to and will keep teams from double-teaming recently acquired Braylon Edwards. Edwards hasn't quite been as good as expected (just 5.9 yards per pass thrown to him) but his numbers should improve with Cotchery back. Speaking of Cotchery, he has average a very good 8.7 yards on the 36 passes intended for him in just over 4 games before getting hurt and Sanchez has averaged only 6.7 ypa throwing to all other wide receivers, so his numbers will go up if Cotchery is playing at close to 100%.
Miami defends the run very well (3.6 ypr allowed), but the Dolphins' pass defense isn't nearly as bad as it looks, as the 7.2 yppp allowed came against quarterbacks that would average 6.9 yppp against an average team. Miami is actually average defensively after compensating for the schedule of mostly good defensive teams that they've faced.
These teams are very even from the line of scrimmage I'd prefer to take the 3 1/2 points with one of my NFL math model favoring New York by 3 1/2 and the other by only 2 points.
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