New York Yankees: Trade Deadline Predictions with 2 Weeks to Go

The New York Yankees exit the All-Star break at 45-41, 3.5 games off the pace in the American League East. They're contenders, but upgrades are needed.

As yours truly recently noted, the Yanks could use reinforcements in the bullpen, the starting rotation and at first base.

At the same time, general manager Brian Cashman isn't about to mortgage his carefully revamped farm system. Trades are possible, but don't expect New York to fling all its chips on the table.

With that in mind, here are five predictions for moves the Yankees will and won't make by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Feel free to check back in a couple weeks and see how wrong—or possibly right—we were.

They Will Acquire an Impact Reliever

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Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Pat Neshek.

Formerly a source of strength, the Yankees bullpen has become a crooked question mark.

The unit ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.66 ERA, but closer Aroldis Chapman has missed time with a shoulder injury and supporting arms such as Dellin Betances and Tyler Clippard have wobbled.

"We're just kind of going through one of those funks right now, I guess is the best way to put it," Clippard said, per Sporting News' Shlomo Sprung. "I mean, it's so hard to kind of pinpoint why."

New York isn't going to acquire a top-shelf closer after handing Chapman $86 million over five years this winter.

The Yankees could, however, add a complementary piece such as the Philadelphia Phillies' Pat Neshek or the San Diego Padres' Brad Hand. It says here they will.

They Will Add a First Baseman

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Oakland Athletics' first baseman Yonder Alonso.

Greg Bird was supposed to claim first base for the Yankees in 2017. Instead, the 25-year-old has hit .100 in 19 games and is on the shelf with a nagging foot injury.

The various in-house replacements haven't lit the league on fire. If there's a starting position where New York can add pop and production, this is it.

The Oakland Athletics' Yonder Alonso has a .934 OPS at the break and could be a propitious rental. The same goes for the New York Mets' Lucas Duda and his 14 home runs.

Rentals, though, are apparently the route the Yanks will take.

"We'll try to fix it, but keeping in mind that Greg Bird is still the future first baseman," Cashman said, per Marcus DiNitto of Sporting News.

They Won't Move Any Top Prospects

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Infielder Gleyber Torres.

With all this talk of trades, it's important to note New York will jealously guard its top prospects.

"Our interest would be buyers, but I think we're going to be careful buyers," Cashman said, per DiNitto. "We have a long-term plan that I think people are seeing the excitement from, and we're definitely not going to deviate from that."

Translation: Don't expect any of the Yankees' highest-rated youngsters—including infielder Gleyber Torres and recently called-up outfielder Clint Frazier—to switch uniforms before July 31.

They Won't Trade for an Ace

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Manager Joe Girardi and right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.

On that note, the Yankees likely won't trade for an ace.

Yes, the rotation ranks 10th in baseball with a ho-hum 4.26 ERA, and ostensible ace Masahiro Tanaka owns an ugly mark of 5.47. New York could use a No. 1-caliber arm to propel the club into October. 

The price, however, might be too steep.

For example, the Chicago White Sox are asking for either Torres or Frazier plus more for left-hander Jose Quintana, according to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman. 

Quintana is relatively young at age 28, has a track record and is locked into a team-friendly contract. He also sports a 4.49 ERA. 

If that's the cost of elite starting pitching this summer, don't count Cashman and the Yankees in.

They Will React to the Red Sox

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Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Whether they admit it or not, the Yankees are always in a battle with the Boston Red Sox.

Currently, Boston leads the division at 50-39, but it has weaknesses in the rotation and at third base.

If the Sox and trade-happy president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski make a headline-commanding move or two, it will pressure New York to follow suit.

The Tampa Bay Rays are also a factor, while the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays can't be counted out. 

The AL East, however, is shaping up as a race between the Red Sox and Yankees, as the baseball gods intended.

No matter how it shakes out, that should add spice to the summer swapping season.

All statistics current as of Tuesday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.