Each MLB Contender's Trade Season Shopping List at Midseason
As we roll into the season's second half, it's time for MLB buyers to get their trade-deadline shopping lists in order.
We're here to help with a rundown of what each contender should seek for the stretch run.
A couple of points of clarification:
- We're focusing on acute deficiencies rather than pie-in-the-sky desires. Everybody could use an ace or a 30-homer slugger, for example, but not everyone needs one.
- We defined "contender" as clubs with a 30 percent or greater chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs' metric. That meant leaving off some bubble teams, but we've got to draw the line somewhere.
Here are the shopping lists heading into the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, with teams listed in ascending order of playoff odds.
Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 30.3 percent
Current Record: 50-41
Shopping List: Bullpen help, starting pitcher
The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the best stories of 2017. A rebuilding team that was supposed to be a doormat in the National League Central, they're in first place at the All-Star break, 5.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals and defending champion Chicago Cubs.
Don't expect general manager David Stearns to mortgage the farm. The Brewers, however, should be in the market for a late-inning bullpen arm to back All-Star closer Corey Knebel and boost a relief corps that's tied for 11th in baseball with a 4.08 ERA.
The Crew could also go ace shopping. According to MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, Milwaukee is "doing background work on [the Chicago White Sox's] Jose Quintana, [the Oakland Athletics'] Sonny Gray and other impact starters."
The Brewers already have a solid rotation, fronted by Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson, though Anderson is on the shelf with an oblique strain. The addition of the No. 1-type arm could extend their surprise run well into October.
St. Louis Cardinals
2 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 31.4 percent
Current Record: 43-45
Shopping List: Power hitter
The Cardinals are under .500 and have tradable veterans on the roster, including first baseman Matt Carpenter, right-hander Lance Lynn and relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Seung Hwan Oh.
Then again, these are the Cards, a club accustomed to perennial contention. And they're just 5.5 games out, despite an offense that ranks 19th in runs scored.
So while St. Louis could sell, it could also add a power bat and make a run.
The Cardinals have expressed interest in Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, per Morosi. However, it would take a huge package to bring the former American League MVP south of the border.
As a rental, the New York Mets' Jay Bruce would come cheaper, and the Cardinals are not among the eight teams included in the slugging outfielder's no-trade clause, per Joe Giglio of NJ Advance Media.
Tampa Bay Rays
3 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 33.2 percent
Current Record: 47-43
Shopping List: Bullpen help
The Tampa Bay Rays have already made a trade, flipping a couple of lesser prospects to the Miami Marlins for shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.
If they keep buying, the next obvious area of need is the bullpen.
Tampa Bay's pen ranks 20th in the game with a 4.38 ERA and has wobbled outside of closer Alex Colome.
"We've had some really, really impressive outings from a lot of guys in the bullpen, and a lot of times they are followed up with a couple of those outings [that make] you scratch your head a little bit," said skipper Kevin Cash, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
The San Diego Padres' Brad Hand and Philadelphia Phillies' Pat Neshek make sense, though the Rays could shy away if the Pads and/or Phils demand any of their highest-rated prospects.
New York Yankees
4 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 54.8 percent
Current Record: 45-41
Shopping List: Starting pitching, bullpen help, first base
Aaron Judge may have won the Home Run Derby, but he can't carry the New York Yankees to the playoffs all by himself.
To make the postseason, the Yanks need to upgrade a bullpen that has been uncharacteristically shaky, address the hole at first base and possibly add a starting pitcher.
The likes of Neshek and Hand would accomplish the first goal. A rental such as the Mets' Lucas Duda or the Athletics' Yonder Alonso would address the second. And New York could make a cannonball-sized splash by going after Quintana or Gray.
General manager Brian Cashman sounded a cautious note to the YES Network's Michael Kay:
"We have a long-term plan that I think people are seeing the excitement from, and we're definitely not going to deviate from that…Part of that long-term plan is in the short term—winning now and putting out the best effort possible, but not at the expense of what we feel can lead us to more championships, plural…If we can find that balancing act and retain the players we desperately need to retain…I think that's the walk we're trying to walk."
Translation: There will be moves, but possibly not huge ones.
Colorado Rockies
5 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 62.2 percent
Current Record: 52-39
Shopping List: Bullpen help, shortstop
The Colorado Rockies are chasing both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, but they hold the Senior Circuit's second wild-card position and have a clear path to the playoffs.
The pitching staff, which ranks third in MLB with a 3.83 road ERA, has been a surprising strength.
Still, like most contenders, the Rockies would benefit from bullpen help behind closer Greg Holland and setup man Jake McGee. A veteran such as the Phillies' Joaquin Benoit would be a reasonable target, as would the Athletics' Santiago Casilla, who has familiarity with the division from his days with the San Francisco Giants.
Shortstop is another weak spot for Colorado, with Trevor Story hitting a scant .224 and top prospect Brendan Rodgers not ready for prime time.
Keep an eye on slick-fielding Zack Cozart of the Cincinnati Reds, whose .941 OPS would get a boost at Mile High altitude. Plus, as a rental, Cozart wouldn't block Story or Rodgers.
Chicago Cubs
6 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 62.8 percent
Current Record: 43-45
Shopping List: Starting pitching, bullpen help
This isn't how things were supposed to unfold on Chicago's North Side.
Fresh off a 103-win campaign and curse-busting championship run, the Cubs were expected to walk away with the Central. Instead, they're under .500 and staring up at the Brewers.
Chicago needs starting pitching to buttress a rotation that owns a 4.66 ERA. It also needs reinforcements in middle relief.
President of baseball operations Theo Epstein proved he's willing to deal last season when he sent top prospect Gleyber Torres as part of a package to the Yankees for a few months of flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman.
But he recently expressed faith in his roster as constructed, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"This is largely the same club that averaged 100 wins a year over the last two years. There's not a player we realistically can bring in from the outside that's going to spur us to play at that level. We're going to get to a point of playing at that level because of the guys who are here. Of course, we're going to work hard and do what we can to improve the team. It may happen; it may not happen."
It'd be shocking if the Cubs stood pat at the deadline. The expectations are simply too high. A season-saving blockbuster, however, may not be in the offing.
Arizona Diamondbacks
7 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 88 percent
Current Record: 53-36
Shopping List: Bullpen help, back-of-the-rotation starting pitching
After a disastrous 2016 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in the thick of the NL postseason chase.
They rank seventh in baseball in runs scored and second in team ERA. There isn't a glaring weakness on the roster, and the Snakes are unlikely to make any major moves.
That said, Fernando Rodney is the only reliever on the team who has thrown an inning in the postseason, so a veteran bullpen arm such as Neshek, Casilla or the Detroit Tigers' Justin Wilson would make sense.
A fifth starter to supplant Patrick Corbin and his 4.71 ERA is another possibility, with the Reds' Scott Feldman representing a solid low-cost option.
Boston Red Sox
8 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 94 percent
Current Record: 50-39
Shopping List: Third base
Boston Red Sox fans may want the team to add a front-line starter in case left-hander David Price suffers further injuries or struggles.
That isn't happening, according to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
"We're not looking for starting pitching," Dombrowski told reporters July 8.
Unless that's a diversion tactic, Boston will instead focus on third base, where Pablo Sandoval has again been a disaster and the in-house replacements have failed to fill the void.
The Chicago White Sox's Todd Frazier and Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas are rentals with significant power upside, while the San Francisco Giants' Eduardo Nunez offers speed and defensive versatility.
Cleveland Indians
9 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 97.7 percent
Current Record: 47-40
Shopping List: Starting pitching
Last season at the trade deadline, the Cleveland Indians acquired left-handed reliever Andrew Miller from the Yankees. Suffice it to say, it paid off for the defending AL champs.
The Tribe might not make a similarly seismic trade this year. But Cleveland could improve a rotation that's fronted by ace Corey Kluber yet owns a pedestrian 4.29 ERA.
Quintana and Gray might be too costly. The Royals' Jason Vargas is an interesting option, though that would require K.C. to give up on its playoff hopes and make an in-division deal.
If the Indians don't acquire a starter, they can lean on a strong bullpen and an offense that ranks third in the AL in OPS. Another arm would help the cause, though, as they charge toward their first championship since the Harry S. Truman administration.
Washington Nationals
10 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 98.7 percent
Current Record: 52-36
Shopping List: Late-inning relief
The Washington Nationals are cruising toward the NL East flag with the Senior Circuit's highest-scoring offense and a starting rotation that boasts the third-best ERA in baseball.
If there's a question mark, it's in the bullpen, where the Nats have rolled all season without an experienced, lockdown closer.
The Chicago White Sox's David Robertson is an obvious target, or Washington could pursue a reunion with Mark Melancon, who signed a lucrative deal this winter with the suddenly hapless Giants.
No matter what, anticipate action.
"Washington is going to get a closer, and I don't think [Nationals general manager Mike] Rizzo cares what he gives up," an unnamed executive said, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. "He'll make a deal."
Houston Astros
11 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 100 percent
Current Record: 60-29
Shopping List: Starting pitching
Barring an epic collapse, the Houston Astros will win the AL West. They've got a top-notch offense and the fifth-best team ERA in either league.
Yet, with ace Dallas Keuchel working his way back from a neck injury, the 'Stros could go after an arm.
They've been connected to Quintana and Gray by MLB analyst Peter Gammons, and they have the chips to make it happen in a system Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked No. 5 in the game.
Parting with top prospects always stings, but this is a year Houston could make a serious title run. When those stars align, you shoot for the moon.
Los Angeles Dodgers
12 of 12
FanGraphs Postseason Odds: 100 percent
Current Record: 61-29
Shopping List: Starting pitching, outfield help
Despite challenges from the Diamondbacks and Rockies, the Dodgers are the class of the NL West and, arguably, the National League.
Still, the rich can always get richer.
The Dodgers could get a starter to slot next to uber-ace Clayton Kershaw and surprise All-Star Alex Wood. Or they could fortify an outfield headlined by the uncertain trio of Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor.
Quintana or Gray would look good on the mound. The Tigers' J.D. Martinez would make sense in left. None would come free, but L.A. has enticing pieces in its system and hasn't brought home a Commissioner's Trophy since 1988.
The time is now.
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