Jake Arrieta Could Cost Himself $100M with Free-Agent Year Letdown

This isn't how the script was supposed to go for Jake Arrieta or the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago rolled into 2017 as MLB's defending champion, fresh off a historic curse-busting run and with a roster deep and loaded enough for a repeat performance.

Arrieta, meanwhile, was waltzing into a contract year and appeared primed for a massive payday from the Cubbies or someone else.

Even after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 7-6 on Sunday night at Wrigley Field to complete a three-game sweep, the Cubs are a mediocre 28-27 and are looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central.

For his part, Arrieta owns a 4.60 ERA through 62.2 innings and has lost three of his last four decisions.

That's quite a tumble for a pitcher who won the NL Cy Young Award in 2015 and was an All-Star and top-10 Cy Young finisher last season.

The first thing that leaps out is a decline in velocity. Over the course of his career, Arrieta has averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball. This year, that number has dipped to 91.8 mph.

Concurrently, his hard-contact rate has jumped from a career mark of 26.4 percent to 33.3 percent, and he's surrendered 11 home runs in 11 starts after giving up just 10 in 33 starts in 2015 and 16 in 31 starts in 2016.

"I don't intend to continue to give up as much hard contact, especially balls over the fence," Arrieta said after he allowed four earned runs and a pair of homers in a May 26 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. "It's been a little bit of tough luck."

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There's some truth in that. Arrieta's 3.57 xFIP—a version of ERA that minimizes factors beyond a pitcher's control—suggests a degree of misfortune.

No one who has watched Arrieta pitch this season, however, would argue he's an unequivocal ace. He's shown flashes, but the decline in velocity and bumpy results are crimson flags flapping in the North Side breeze.

There is someone who believes in the hirsute 31-year-old, and that's superagent Scott Boras.

Boras, who represents Arrieta and will get a cut of whatever deal he inks, compared his client favorably to other richly compensated hurlers of recent vintage.

"He has a three-plus-year history of dominance," Boras said, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. "Of all the pitchers—David Price, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer—he was the best over a three-year period."

That's debatable. If you go by FanGraphs' WAR calculation, Arrieta's mark of 16.1 from 2014 to 2016 was higher than Greinke's (12.3) but lower than Scherzer's (17.3) and Price's (17).

The point stands, though. Over the past few seasons, Arrieta has been one of the top starters in baseball.

Boras didn't pick those comparisons at random. Scherzer, Greinke and Price have each inked a $200 million-plus megadeal. Can Arrieta reach that tier?

Not if he keeps wobbling like a Ferrari with a flat, as the Tribune's Steve Rosenbloom outlined.

"As great an agent as Scott Boras is, even he can't beat the unforgiving honesty of radar guns," Rosenbloom wrote. "He can only hope someone is buying comparisons to great pitchers when it comes to his latest client looking for a lot more money than he seems to be worth right now."

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Like the Cubs, Arrieta could rebound. Just as Chicago will almost surely jolt well past .500, their ostensible ace could rediscover his form and rebuild his value.

A summer of shutdown starts punctuated by some postseason dominance would erase the stain of his early troubles.

If that doesn't happen, however, Arrieta could go from a gaudy pact to a show-me contract.

Remember, as good as he's been in a Cubs uniform, this is a pitcher who'd never posted a sub-4.00 ERA prior to 2014 and looked like a talented but mercurial letdown in his initial years with the Baltimore Orioles.

"There is something different regarding something at the plate," Cub manager Joe Maddon said of his righty's recent tribulations, per ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers. "They're not missing it as often."

If that doesn't change, the next thing to go missing will be millions in Arrieta's bank account.

This isn't how the script was supposed to go. So far, for Arrieta and the Cubs, it's an unfortunate rewrite.

All statistics accurate as of Sunday and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.